The Ultimate NBA Greatest Player List and Neutralized Stat R

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Mike G
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Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: The Ultimate NBA Greatest Player List and Neutralized St

Post by Mike G » Mon Jul 18, 2016 11:45 am

bchaikin wrote:... of your top 400 career ranked players there are only 6 players from the 1950s listed (mikan, lovellete, johnston, arizin, cousy, twyman)...
I see Dolph Schayes at #116, Risen at 711, Sharman 365, Wanzer 874, MaCauley 310, Yardley 489, Gallatin 507, Jack Coleman 609, Graboski 630, Foust 288, Mikkelsen 451, Clifton 937.

These guys are all within my top 370, as of last year. All primarily 50's guys, I think.
Supposing it's an era thing, 50's not well respected. It's certainly debatable. The arguments may be that these guys played in the era of set shots, low national participation, low pay, etc. == They wouldn't do well today.

Counter-argument would be that today's players wouldn't thrive in canvas shoes, traveling by bus, under antiquated rules, in an openly racist America -- and for low pay.

Mike G
Posts: 4413
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: The Ultimate NBA Greatest Player List and Neutralized St

Post by Mike G » Tue Jul 19, 2016 12:32 am

It seems I copied the Top 100 in dRell's 2013 Ultimate List. Sometime in the intervening 3 years, some 35 players have dropped out of the top 100, replaced by 35 others.

Code: Select all

new to 100      2016    2013   out of 100    2016
Reggie Miller    23      72   Slater Martin   763
Pau Gasol        28      64   Mel Daniels     531
Shawn Marion     35      60   Connie Hawkins  460
Horace Grant     44      82   George Yardley  489
Walt Bellamy     50      42   George Mikan    378
Jeff Hornacek    51      52   Tom Heinsohn    400
Elton Brand      53      97   Harry Gallatin  507
Buck Williams    55      75   Vern Mikkelsen  451
Mark Jackson     57      47   Bill Sharman    365
Vlade Divac      60      65   Neil Johnston   341
Terry Porter     61      96   Gus Johnson     376
Ben Wallace      62      68   Ed Macauley     310
Andre Miller     64      36   Willis Reed     230
Otis Thorpe      65      80   Jo Jo White     268
Dikembe Mutombo  66      50   Sam Jones       209
Rasheed Wallace  67      48   Paul Arizin     175
Charles Oakley   69      98   Cliff Hagan     254
Joe Johnson      71      70  Billy Cunningham 186
Rod Strickland   74      28   Bob Cousy       107
Antawn Jamison   77      33   Dolph Schayes   116
Michael Finley   78      77   Sidney Moncrief 181
Jason Terry      80      58   George McGinnis 151
Chris Mullin     82      56   Spencer Haywood 146
Larry Nance      84      75   Nate Archibald  174
Chauncey Billups 85      49   Hal Greer       125
Derek Harper     86      71  Dave DeBusschere 158
Bill Laimbeer    87      88   Dave Bing       182
Detlef Schrempf  88      61   Lenny Wilkens   137
Maurice Cheeks   91      62   Alonzo Mourning 127
Shawn Kemp       93      86   Bailey Howell   148
Cliff Robinson   95      66   Jerry Lucas     103
Zach Randolph    96      90   Dennis Johnson  122
Kevin Willis     97      93   Dennis Rodman   120
Sam Perkins      99      95  Amare Stoudemire 104
Carlos Boozer   100      99   Mitch Richmond  108
?                        94   Chet Walker     102
Yeah, I'm one short on the newcomers side. Clerical error on my part.
Bellamy stands out as an oldtimer that's new to the list.
The 2016 numbers above are dRell's career value accumulation rank. He also has a per-minute ranking, and an avg of the two. The 2016 avg/blend might be closer to the 2013 list -- Jordan and LeBron rank higher in the avg.
The other 65 or so who remain in the top 100 from 2013 to 2016:

Code: Select all

2013  uppers    2016     2013   downers    2016
89  Dan Issel   34        27  George Gervin  81
92  Vince Carter  39      41  Dave Cowens  89
40  John Stockton  11     20  Bob Pettit  56
57  Robert Parish  21     45  Walt Frazier  92
84  Wes Unseld  46         8  Bill Russell  32
100 Jack Sikma  59        24  Rick Barry  58
53  Paul Pierce  25       35  Isiah Thomas  72
37  Jason Kidd  15        14  Jerry West  38
86  Chris Webber  54      22  Elgin Baylor  42
11  Karl Malone  2        55  Bob McAdoo  83
79  Alex English  49       6  Magic Johnson  17
17  Kevin Garnett  5      21  John Havlicek  37
54  Ray Allen  30         46  Kevin Durant  68
73  Tony Parker  48        1  Michael Jordan  6
67  Bob Lanier  47        10  Larry Bird  20
23  Dirk Nowitzki  13      3  Wilt Chamberlain 9
34  Scottie Pippen  22    76  James Worthy  98
81  Adrian Dantley  63    30  Allen Iverson  43
29  Gary Payton  19       15  Oscar Robertson  24
19  Charles Barkley  12   25  Dwyane Wade  33
91  Carmelo Anthony  76   59  Kevin McHale  70
38  Clyde Drexler  29     12  Julius Erving  16
51  Steve Nash  41        26  Patrick Ewing  31
63  Chris Bosh  52        83  Nate Thurmond  90
32  Elvin Hayes  26       16  David Robinson  18
43  Chris Paul  36        69  Tracy McGrady  73
5   Tim Duncan  3         39  Dwight Howard  40
18  Moses Malone  14      44 Dominique Wilkins 45
13  Hakeem Olajuwon  10        
2   Kareem Abdul-Jabbar  1        
31  Artis Gilmore  27        
85  Tim Hardaway  79     2013  no change   2016
9   Lebron James  8        7  Kobe Bryant  7
78  Grant Hill  75         4  Shaquille O'Neal  4

D-rell
Posts: 50
Joined: Mon Jul 08, 2013 12:53 am

Re: The Ultimate NBA Greatest Player List and Neutralized St

Post by D-rell » Wed Jul 20, 2016 2:22 am

bchaikin wrote:Each player is ranked according to individually estimated contribution, or Value Share.

the league first kept track of minutes in 51-52. from 51-52 to 58-59 a full 4.5% of the regular season minutes of league history (5152-1516) was played, yet of your top 400 career ranked players there are only 6 players from the 1950s listed (mikan, lovellete, johnston, arizin, cousy, twyman) - that's just 1.5% of the top 400 players, 3 times less than the minutes played. why?...
The application of my league quality factor explains much of these differentials

D-rell
Posts: 50
Joined: Mon Jul 08, 2013 12:53 am

Re: The Ultimate NBA Greatest Player List and Neutralized St

Post by D-rell » Wed Jul 20, 2016 2:26 am

Mike G wrote:
D-rell wrote: Bonds ultimately played in the era where it was easiest to Homer, the "steriod" era.

Bonds adjusted career HRs = 664
Ruth adjusted career HRs = 651

...Bonds' ability to hit, field, and run the bases makes him, in my opinion, regardless of era the greatest baseball player of all-time.
Does everyone in the "steroid era" get the same deduction, whether or not they were steroid users?
664/771 = .861, so he gets 14% of his HR chipped off?

Bonds got to the postseason 7 times in 20 seasons. In these, he hit .245, slugged .503
His RS numbers were .298 and .607
That's quite a downturn in 151 at bats.

He was in 2 winning playoff series, losing 7.
I factored in the postseason, but it's typically less than 10% of the overall season plate appearances for the few teams that advance.

D-rell
Posts: 50
Joined: Mon Jul 08, 2013 12:53 am

Re: The Ultimate NBA Greatest Player List and Neutralized St

Post by D-rell » Wed Jul 20, 2016 3:06 am

Mike G wrote:It seems I copied the Top 100 in dRell's 2013 Ultimate List. Sometime in the intervening 3 years, some 35 players have dropped out of the top 100, replaced by 35 others.

Code: Select all

new to 100      2016    2013   out of 100    2016
Reggie Miller    23      72   Slater Martin   763
Pau Gasol        28      64   Mel Daniels     531
Shawn Marion     35      60   Connie Hawkins  460
Horace Grant     44      82   George Yardley  489
Walt Bellamy     50      42   George Mikan    378
Jeff Hornacek    51      52   Tom Heinsohn    400
Elton Brand      53      97   Harry Gallatin  507
Buck Williams    55      75   Vern Mikkelsen  451
Mark Jackson     57      47   Bill Sharman    365
Vlade Divac      60      65   Neil Johnston   341
Terry Porter     61      96   Gus Johnson     376
Ben Wallace      62      68   Ed Macauley     310
Andre Miller     64      36   Willis Reed     230
Otis Thorpe      65      80   Jo Jo White     268
Dikembe Mutombo  66      50   Sam Jones       209
Rasheed Wallace  67      48   Paul Arizin     175
Charles Oakley   69      98   Cliff Hagan     254
Joe Johnson      71      70  Billy Cunningham 186
Rod Strickland   74      28   Bob Cousy       107
Antawn Jamison   77      33   Dolph Schayes   116
Michael Finley   78      77   Sidney Moncrief 181
Jason Terry      80      58   George McGinnis 151
Chris Mullin     82      56   Spencer Haywood 146
Larry Nance      84      75   Nate Archibald  174
Chauncey Billups 85      49   Hal Greer       125
Derek Harper     86      71  Dave DeBusschere 158
Bill Laimbeer    87      88   Dave Bing       182
Detlef Schrempf  88      61   Lenny Wilkens   137
Maurice Cheeks   91      62   Alonzo Mourning 127
Shawn Kemp       93      86   Bailey Howell   148
Cliff Robinson   95      66   Jerry Lucas     103
Zach Randolph    96      90   Dennis Johnson  122
Kevin Willis     97      93   Dennis Rodman   120
Sam Perkins      99      95  Amare Stoudemire 104
Carlos Boozer   100      99   Mitch Richmond  108
?                        94   Chet Walker     102
Yeah, I'm one short on the newcomers side. Clerical error on my part.
Bellamy stands out as an oldtimer that's new to the list.
The 2016 numbers above are dRell's career value accumulation rank. He also has a per-minute ranking, and an avg of the two. The 2016 avg/blend might be closer to the 2013 list -- Jordan and LeBron rank higher in the avg.
The other 65 or so who remain in the top 100 from 2013 to 2016:

Code: Select all

2013  uppers    2016     2013   downers    2016
89  Dan Issel   34        27  George Gervin  81
92  Vince Carter  39      41  Dave Cowens  89
40  John Stockton  11     20  Bob Pettit  56
57  Robert Parish  21     45  Walt Frazier  92
84  Wes Unseld  46         8  Bill Russell  32
100 Jack Sikma  59        24  Rick Barry  58
53  Paul Pierce  25       35  Isiah Thomas  72
37  Jason Kidd  15        14  Jerry West  38
86  Chris Webber  54      22  Elgin Baylor  42
11  Karl Malone  2        55  Bob McAdoo  83
79  Alex English  49       6  Magic Johnson  17
17  Kevin Garnett  5      21  John Havlicek  37
54  Ray Allen  30         46  Kevin Durant  68
73  Tony Parker  48        1  Michael Jordan  6
67  Bob Lanier  47        10  Larry Bird  20
23  Dirk Nowitzki  13      3  Wilt Chamberlain 9
34  Scottie Pippen  22    76  James Worthy  98
81  Adrian Dantley  63    30  Allen Iverson  43
29  Gary Payton  19       15  Oscar Robertson  24
19  Charles Barkley  12   25  Dwyane Wade  33
91  Carmelo Anthony  76   59  Kevin McHale  70
38  Clyde Drexler  29     12  Julius Erving  16
51  Steve Nash  41        26  Patrick Ewing  31
63  Chris Bosh  52        83  Nate Thurmond  90
32  Elvin Hayes  26       16  David Robinson  18
43  Chris Paul  36        69  Tracy McGrady  73
5   Tim Duncan  3         39  Dwight Howard  40
18  Moses Malone  14      44 Dominique Wilkins 45
13  Hakeem Olajuwon  10        
2   Kareem Abdul-Jabbar  1        
31  Artis Gilmore  27        
85  Tim Hardaway  79     2013  no change   2016
9   Lebron James  8        7  Kobe Bryant  7
78  Grant Hill  75         4  Shaquille O'Neal  4
Very accurate breakdown. I'd like to think that my 2016 is much improved from my past evaluations. One obvious reason is the statistical adjustments.

Jerry West for instance,

Ends up with 9526 (RS, PS) adjusted FGM, about a 10.5% decrease from his actual (10,638) used in the calculations for my first metric.

(((Actual * Position Era Adjustment)*Position League Quality/GP adjustment)*Perimeter Player adjustment))

(((10638*.76)*.943)*1.25)) - Rounded-off

Instead of attempting a pointless exercise of estimating pre-3pt perimeter players 3pm and 3p%, 'after neutralizing' the scoring stats of all Guards/Small Fowards from the early 90s, compared them to all Guards/SF from each of the pre-3pt decades and attributed the difference to a 3pt factor. In West case, a PG/SG from a combo of 60s & 70s, his neutralized FGM are multiplied times a 1.25 factor.

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