201617 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion

 Posts: 262
 Joined: Sun Nov 23, 2014 6:18 pm
Re: 201617 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion
Thanks for the response Nate, and I apolagize if I wasn't sufficiently clear.
I'll try and rephrase my question in a simpler way.
My model says team A has a 33% chance of beating team B.
However, my model is only 75% accurate in its forecasts.
Lets say that Joe Smith comes up to me and says "Hey Daniel, how confident are you that team A beats team B tomorrow.
Do I say 33% because that's what my model says? or can I incorporate the uncertainty of my model into my confidence of the game's outcome?
I'll try and rephrase my question in a simpler way.
My model says team A has a 33% chance of beating team B.
However, my model is only 75% accurate in its forecasts.
Lets say that Joe Smith comes up to me and says "Hey Daniel, how confident are you that team A beats team B tomorrow.
Do I say 33% because that's what my model says? or can I incorporate the uncertainty of my model into my confidence of the game's outcome?
Re: 201617 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion
I don't really understand what that means. Can you elaborate?ampersand5 wrote:...
However, my model is only 75% accurate in its forecasts
...
The total number of wins in the league over the course of a season is fixed. So even if the RSME is large, the net average error will be 0....We can look at the RMSE from previous year's predictions to get a sense at how accurate our model is...
Something you can do is to look for patterns in the error  for example check whether are the errors typically toward 41 wins or away from 41 wins  and then incorporate that knowledge into your predictions. We could, in some sense, say that a model which errs toward 41 is underconfident, and a model which errs away from 41 is overconfident.
Re: 201617 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion
Using Kevin P's minutes projections found here 
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=9211
 I've plugged in last year's RPM, BPM, and WinShares rates, along with my own eWins and faux RPM, to project wins for the season.
RPM returns exactly 1230 wins, 41*30; the others are all higher, so they're scaled down to avg 41.These projections are not regressed toward the mean.
Avg departure from the 5metric avg:eWins has either the high or low projection for almost every team, unregressed.
Players with less than 250 minutes or so didn't have an RPM that I could find; so I just used their BPM in the RPM slot.
http://www.basketballreference.com/lea ... anced.html
Rookie rates are guessed at by their rank in their teams' minutes distribution: Players with more minutes had generally better numbers, and they are supposed to be better than those with fewer minutes.
Players who missed last season are treated the same as rookies. Player age is not accounted for, and minutes may be adjusted later.
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=9211
 I've plugged in last year's RPM, BPM, and WinShares rates, along with my own eWins and faux RPM, to project wins for the season.
RPM returns exactly 1230 wins, 41*30; the others are all higher, so they're scaled down to avg 41.
Code: Select all
tm BPM RPM fRPM WS eW
GSW 69 69 68 71 78
SAS 62 62 62 63 70
Cle 58 61 58 55 55
LAC 51 54 52 53 57
Tor 53 52 51 51 53
Okl 51 48 51 50 45
Bos 50 50 48 47 43
Uta 50 49 46 47 46
Por 46 45 43 44 43
Det 41 47 43 40 49
Atl 41 46 47 42 41
Hou 45 49 45 41 35
Chi 44 40 43 42 44
Min 42 39 44 40 46
Cha 42 40 42 44 41
tm BPM RPM fRPM WS eW
Ind 37 39 42 38 51
Mem 41 38 37 40 41
Dal 42 39 39 43 33
Was 36 40 39 35 44
Den 35 35 37 31 38
Orl 35 33 31 38 37
Sac 34 35 33 34 31
NOP 32 34 32 35 34
Mia 34 34 30 39 26
NYK 32 34 34 29 31
Mil 29 27 32 35 34
Phx 30 26 28 28 25
LAL 26 21 28 27 22
Brk 21 24 22 25 18
Phl 21 19 24 23 19
avg 41 41 41 41 41
Avg departure from the 5metric avg:
Code: Select all
BPM RPM fRPM WS eW
1.62 1.99 1.47 2.03 3.47
Players with less than 250 minutes or so didn't have an RPM that I could find; so I just used their BPM in the RPM slot.
http://www.basketballreference.com/lea ... anced.html
Rookie rates are guessed at by their rank in their teams' minutes distribution: Players with more minutes had generally better numbers, and they are supposed to be better than those with fewer minutes.
Players who missed last season are treated the same as rookies. Player age is not accounted for, and minutes may be adjusted later.
Re: 201617 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion
That is useful info. Thanks for the work.
Re: 201617 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion
Here are my projections, using 3 years of RPM (weighted 631), a simple aging curve and KP's minutes.
EDIT: I've changed this to use whole wins, per Crow's recommendation. Also fixed rounding issue so wins total to 1230.
EDIT: I've changed this to use whole wins, per Crow's recommendation. Also fixed rounding issue so wins total to 1230.
Code: Select all
GSW 66
CLE 59
SAS 57
LAC 50
BOS 49
UTA 49
HOU 49
TOR 48
OKC 46
POR 44
MEM 42
WAS 42
DET 41
ATL 41
CHA 41
DAL 41
SAC 40
CHI 39
IND 39
MIA 38
NOP 37
ORL 37
DEN 36
NYK 36
MIN 33
MIL 29
PHX 28
BRK 28
LAL 24
PHI 21
Last edited by shadow on Fri Oct 21, 2016 9:50 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Re: 201617 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion
Likeable methodology.
I will say in general that I don't think fractions of a win belong in the contest. Vegas has a market making reason to straddle but here it probably gives some advantage vs. projections that use whole numbers.
I will say in general that I don't think fractions of a win belong in the contest. Vegas has a market making reason to straddle but here it probably gives some advantage vs. projections that use whole numbers.
Re: 201617 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion
My suggestion may or may get universal implementation.
Shadow, it appears you are missing 3 wins leaguewide. Perhaps from the rounding.
Shadow, it appears you are missing 3 wins leaguewide. Perhaps from the rounding.

 Posts: 201
 Joined: Thu Dec 04, 2014 12:58 pm
Re: 201617 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion
My 20162017 predictions...
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Cleveland..........57
Toronto............ 52
Boston...............50
Atlanta...............45
Charlotte............44
Indiana...............43
Washington....... 42
Chicago..............41
Detroit................40
Miami.................38
New York............35
Orlando...............33
Milwaukee..........28
Brooklyn.............20
Philadelphia.......19
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Golden State........67
San Antonio........ 59
L.A. Clippers........53
Houston...............51
Oklahoma City.... 48
Utah......................47
Portland............... 44
Memphis...............43
Dallas.....................40
Minnesota.............38
Sacramento...........36
Denver....................35
New Orleans..........32
Phoniex..................29
L.A. Lakers.............21
When is the cutoff for amendments ?
EASTERN CONF. PLAYOFFS :
(1) Cleveland vs. (8) Chicago
(4) Atlanta vs. (5) Charlotte
(3) Boston vs. (6) Indiana
(2) Toronto vs. (7) Washington
WESTERN CONF. PLAYOFFS
(1) Golden State vs. (8) Memphis
(4) Houston vs. (5) Oklahoma City
(3) L.A. Clippers vs. (6) Utah
(2) San Antonio vs. (7) Portland
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Cleveland..........57
Toronto............ 52
Boston...............50
Atlanta...............45
Charlotte............44
Indiana...............43
Washington....... 42
Chicago..............41
Detroit................40
Miami.................38
New York............35
Orlando...............33
Milwaukee..........28
Brooklyn.............20
Philadelphia.......19
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Golden State........67
San Antonio........ 59
L.A. Clippers........53
Houston...............51
Oklahoma City.... 48
Utah......................47
Portland............... 44
Memphis...............43
Dallas.....................40
Minnesota.............38
Sacramento...........36
Denver....................35
New Orleans..........32
Phoniex..................29
L.A. Lakers.............21
When is the cutoff for amendments ?
EASTERN CONF. PLAYOFFS :
(1) Cleveland vs. (8) Chicago
(4) Atlanta vs. (5) Charlotte
(3) Boston vs. (6) Indiana
(2) Toronto vs. (7) Washington
WESTERN CONF. PLAYOFFS
(1) Golden State vs. (8) Memphis
(4) Houston vs. (5) Oklahoma City
(3) L.A. Clippers vs. (6) Utah
(2) San Antonio vs. (7) Portland
Last edited by BasketDork on Tue Oct 25, 2016 7:57 pm, edited 7 times in total.
The Bearded Geek
Re: 201617 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion
Tip0ff of first game unless you have a good nonadvantage seeking excuse and are quick to use it.
Re: 201617 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion
Team
Atlanta Hawks* 46
Boston Celtics* 52
Brooklyn Nets 23
Charlotte Hornets* 39
Chicago Bulls 42
Cleveland Cavaliers* 57
Dallas Mavericks* 37
Denver Nuggets 36
Detroit Pistons* 39
Golden State Warriors* 70
Houston Rockets* 47
Indiana Pacers* 39
Los Angeles Clippers* 55
Los Angeles Lakers 23
Memphis Grizzlies* 44
Miami Heat* 35
Milwaukee Bucks 29
Minnesota Timberwolves 37
New Orleans Pelicans 32
New York Knicks 37
Oklahoma City Thunder* 47
Orlando Magic 31
Philadelphia 76ers 19
Phoenix Suns 37
Portland Trail Blazers* 42
Sacramento Kings 34
San Antonio Spurs* 56
Toronto Raptors* 48
Utah Jazz 48
Washington Wizards 46
Total 1230
Might tweak it in next 48 hours.
Really I want to give out about 100 less wins but I have to give them to someone.
Atlanta Hawks* 46
Boston Celtics* 52
Brooklyn Nets 23
Charlotte Hornets* 39
Chicago Bulls 42
Cleveland Cavaliers* 57
Dallas Mavericks* 37
Denver Nuggets 36
Detroit Pistons* 39
Golden State Warriors* 70
Houston Rockets* 47
Indiana Pacers* 39
Los Angeles Clippers* 55
Los Angeles Lakers 23
Memphis Grizzlies* 44
Miami Heat* 35
Milwaukee Bucks 29
Minnesota Timberwolves 37
New Orleans Pelicans 32
New York Knicks 37
Oklahoma City Thunder* 47
Orlando Magic 31
Philadelphia 76ers 19
Phoenix Suns 37
Portland Trail Blazers* 42
Sacramento Kings 34
San Antonio Spurs* 56
Toronto Raptors* 48
Utah Jazz 48
Washington Wizards 46
Total 1230
Might tweak it in next 48 hours.
Really I want to give out about 100 less wins but I have to give them to someone.
Re: 201617 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion
Here are mine:
I retweeked them a little today from the projections posted in my recent Nylon Calc article to account for the Snell/MCW trade and to give less weight to older games in my my modeling approach.
Almost no difference, which makes total sense to me.
My projections for the 20162017 NBA season below.
win_team round_wins
GSW 70
CLE 61
SAS 60
LAC 52
OKC 52
TOR 50
BOS 48
UTA 47
HOU 44
WAS 43
CHA 43
MEM 43
CHI 42
DAL 42
POR 42
ATL 41
IND 39
NOP 39
SAC 39
NYK 38
DET 37
MIN 32
ORL 32
DEN 31
MIA 31
MIL 30
PHX 29
BKN 26
PHI 24
LAL 23
Total 1230
Best of luck everyone.
I retweeked them a little today from the projections posted in my recent Nylon Calc article to account for the Snell/MCW trade and to give less weight to older games in my my modeling approach.
Almost no difference, which makes total sense to me.
My projections for the 20162017 NBA season below.
win_team round_wins
GSW 70
CLE 61
SAS 60
LAC 52
OKC 52
TOR 50
BOS 48
UTA 47
HOU 44
WAS 43
CHA 43
MEM 43
CHI 42
DAL 42
POR 42
ATL 41
IND 39
NOP 39
SAC 39
NYK 38
DET 37
MIN 32
ORL 32
DEN 31
MIA 31
MIL 30
PHX 29
BKN 26
PHI 24
LAL 23
Total 1230
Best of luck everyone.
Re: 201617 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion
There are a number of ways to measure the uncertainty of a forecast. Bottom line for ampersand5 is simply this: regression to the mean.Nate wrote:I don't really understand what that means. Can you elaborate?ampersand5 wrote:...
However, my model is only 75% accurate in its forecasts
...
Meaning that the more uncertain (or less accurate) your forecast, the more you should adjust your forecast from the 33% in your example to 50%. In the extreme case where the model provide no information at all, all that you can say is that Team A has a 50% chance of beating Team B, and that's your forecast for every single game.
Whereas if you knew for certain that A has a 33% chance of beating B, then your forecast should be 33%.
For situations that are in between (i.e. all practical realworld situations), regress a certain proportion of the distance between the two.
There's a simple formula for figuring out how much to regress when we're dealing with normally distributed random variables (Tom Tango cites it often in his blog); I don't know what the analogous formula is for probabilities. It might be equally simple or it might not be, due to the multiple different ways of measuring the uncertainty of a probabilistic forecast.
Re: 201617 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion
GSW 69.1
CLE 57.2
SAS 55.5
LAC 51.0
BOS 50.6
TOR 50.3
UTA 48.4
OKC 45.4
POR 45.3
HOU 45.3
DET 42.8
CHA 42.3
IND 41.2
WAS 41.1
ATL 40.9
CHI 39.8
MIN 39.6
MEM 39.1
DAL 37.7
ORL 36.8
DEN 36.5
SAC 35.4
NOP 35.4
NYK 35.1
MIA 34.6
MIL 33.0
PHX 28.8
LAL 24.3
BKN 23.9
PHI 23.8
CLE 57.2
SAS 55.5
LAC 51.0
BOS 50.6
TOR 50.3
UTA 48.4
OKC 45.4
POR 45.3
HOU 45.3
DET 42.8
CHA 42.3
IND 41.2
WAS 41.1
ATL 40.9
CHI 39.8
MIN 39.6
MEM 39.1
DAL 37.7
ORL 36.8
DEN 36.5
SAC 35.4
NOP 35.4
NYK 35.1
MIA 34.6
MIL 33.0
PHX 28.8
LAL 24.3
BKN 23.9
PHI 23.8
Last edited by sbs on Tue Oct 25, 2016 6:20 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Re: 201617 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion
Another opinion, if you don't post your predictions here you can"t "win the contest". You can be better, you might be tracked, but if you don't post it here you didn't "enter" this contest.
Re: 201617 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion
First entry after watching for a few years. Best of luck to all.
GSW 73
SAS 53
CLE 52
TOR 52
UTA 51
LAC 49
BOS 48
OKC 48
HOU 45
POR 45
CHA 43
CHI 41
DET 40
MIN 40
DEN 39
IND 39
WAS 39
ATL 38
DAL 38
SAC 38
MEM 37
ORL 37
MIA 36
NOP 35
NYK 31
PHO 31
MIL 30
PHI 29
BRK 28
LAL 25
Total 1230
GSW 73
SAS 53
CLE 52
TOR 52
UTA 51
LAC 49
BOS 48
OKC 48
HOU 45
POR 45
CHA 43
CHI 41
DET 40
MIN 40
DEN 39
IND 39
WAS 39
ATL 38
DAL 38
SAC 38
MEM 37
ORL 37
MIA 36
NOP 35
NYK 31
PHO 31
MIL 30
PHI 29
BRK 28
LAL 25
Total 1230