2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion

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Crow
Posts: 6248
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion

Post by Crow » Sun Apr 23, 2017 9:51 am

You got a slice by SMRE and real close on absolute error. Celebration is mostly self-service here... but congrats!

I'll remember my brief come from behind lead, before final week or two of ball where a lot of teams seem to have atypical performances.

Mike G
Posts: 4429
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion

Post by Mike G » Sun Apr 23, 2017 3:01 pm

Andrew Johnson said it well last year in an article -- he'd finished among the leaders.
Anyone doing better than Vegas has done something.

Nate
Posts: 131
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2015 2:35 pm

Re: 2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion

Post by Nate » Tue Apr 25, 2017 4:57 pm

EvanZ wrote:Never really feel like I learn much from these predictions since a) the totals are fairly close to each other and b) minutes projections could make a significant difference.
Minute information makes a significant difference. Relatively simple models will beat Vegas retrodictively if they can use minute information.

That said, it seems like you'd want to start by setting up the scoring in a way that allows people to control for minutes rather than coming in with that at the end of the contest.

RyanRiot
Posts: 23
Joined: Wed Oct 19, 2016 2:26 am

Re: 2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion

Post by RyanRiot » Fri Jun 30, 2017 2:33 pm

Looks like 538 has realized their mistake and are adding RPM back into their model. Interesting that they felt it warranted complete removal last year but are weighting it at 2/3 now.

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