APBRmetrics

The discussion of the analysis of basketball through objective evidence, especially basketball statistics.
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 27, 2016 2:03 pm 
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Looking at last season RPM, Derrick Rose had the by far worst RPM estimate (-4.3) amongst the players given a salary of over $20 million for this upcoming season. Bradley Beal becomes his closest competitor for weakest impact in the group but it is not that close (-2 something). DeMarr DeRozan at -0.1 is ridiculous enough but he had some space from the first two. There are some other big names with pretty small positives (0 to 1 & change). Carmelo Anthony is over plus 2. Not really that much punch for the dollar but I can't knock him that hard when there are the others worse and far worse. There is some sentiment that max players are the safest / best contracts. Only if they deliver enough and some don't, by RPM, by box score metrics and by team wins (regular season and playoffs).

I anticipate asking Phil Jackson "how it is goink" mid-season. I have a hunch how it will be going but his his answer might be interesting. He probably won't say "I should have paid attention to RPM estimates", though. Will its use be more significant / widespread in 5-10 years? I dunno. With one or two exceptions, none of the rest of the insiders will say hardly anything about it. Some have it, some may use it. But it still seems light, inconsistent, tentative. Perhaps some in depth team studies would be in order to gauge whether RPM values and decisions to keep / reward or move are becoming somewhat more consistent or not. Maybe there is some progress, some places. Where? Of course team progress in regular season wins and playoff advancement needs to accompany consistency in RPM estimates and decision making to be meaningful and encourage greater adoption.


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