Trade Paul George

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Crow
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Re: Trade Paul George

Post by Crow » Tue Apr 25, 2017 11:46 pm

If coaches were in RPM again (occasionally or always) how much of the DRPM decline would stick to McMillan?

J.E.
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Re: Trade Paul George

Post by J.E. » Wed Apr 26, 2017 9:12 am

Crow wrote:If coaches were in RPM again (occasionally or always) how much of the DRPM decline would stick to McMillan?
The difference between Vogel's and McMillan's estimated defensive impact is ~1.3 per 100 in favor of Vogel
That includes data from the current season

colts18
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Re: Trade Paul George

Post by colts18 » Wed Apr 26, 2017 1:30 pm

J.E. wrote:
Crow wrote:If coaches were in RPM again (occasionally or always) how much of the DRPM decline would stick to McMillan?
The difference between Vogel's and McMillan's estimated defensive impact is ~1.3 per 100 in favor of Vogel
That includes data from the current season
Is there a list for this data?

Statman
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Re: Trade Paul George

Post by Statman » Wed Apr 26, 2017 4:02 pm

Mike G wrote:
Winshares per 48 lower than it has been since rookie year (minus the season with just a few games) and only modestly above average. BPM lowest since rookie year. RPM estimate fell almost 50% from last season.
That's very strange. His 2FG%, 3FG%, eFG%, FT%, and TS% were all career highs, and by a good bit. TO% at career low, and other rates near career avg.

He's 26! and only 9 players have logged more minutes in the last 2 years. Only LeBron, Harden, and Westbrook have more points, rebounds, and assists in that time.
My work (per minute & overall) had this last season as his 3rd best - quite a bit behind 2014 & somewhat behind 2016. Definitely better than the others.

That being said, if there is no chance of retaining Paul George after free agency, I have a vibe that his value will never be higher than it is right now. If I were them & I could get DeAngelo Russell, Randle (&/or maybe Zubac), & a couple unprotected 1sts - I'd be hard pressed not to try to pull a deal like that off.

Crow
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Re: Trade Paul George

Post by Crow » Wed Apr 26, 2017 4:12 pm

Thanks JE for the coaching defensive impact data point.

Crow
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Re: Trade Paul George

Post by Crow » Fri Apr 28, 2017 8:02 pm

Bird expected to back away or entirely out. Future with George or non-future without him (especially if it is for nothing) was that bright, eh?

Crow
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Re: Trade Paul George

Post by Crow » Fri Apr 28, 2017 9:24 pm

Pacers most used regular season with George (and Teague) lineup was mildly negative. In playoffs quite negative. Coaches repeat themselves and don't change enough or fast enough. There were much better regular season and playoff performers not used much. Under-dogs usually need to pre-adjust or adjust really fast instead of thinking normal is somehow going to perform better against tougher competition. Late adjustments are usually too late.

George / Teague overall was second worst of his 7 biggest player pairs in regular season. 2nd worst of his main 5 in playoffs. Should you have gone with Aaron Brooks more than 6 minutes to see what would happen in greater use? Maybe. Did outstanding as a pair in regular season, far far better than with Teague. So did Nate not trust small regular season sample sizes, freak at losing those first 6 playoff minutes by 1 point or not really even consider it? George - Teague probably faced tougher competition so raw data is not the full / reliable answer but th egap between George -Teague and George - Brooks in regular season was huge.

If they don't trade George, they might consider whether Teague is the right partner. He should be a pretty to very attractive trade piece.

Crow
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Re: Trade Paul George

Post by Crow » Tue May 02, 2017 4:39 am

Kevin Pelton in recent article speculated that there was a 25% chance George stays (at a big salary), 30% he is traded one time or another, 45% he signs elsewhere. That is pretty low chance of staying. Bet on that?

shadow
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Re: Trade Paul George

Post by shadow » Tue May 02, 2017 2:31 pm

Aaron Brooks had an RPM of -3.27 this year in a reasonable amount of minutes (13.8 MPG for 65 games). There are few things I'm certain about, but Aaron Brooks being a worthless scrub is probably one of them.

Crow
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Re: Trade Paul George

Post by Crow » Tue May 02, 2017 4:32 pm

Overall RPM is for all utilizations on average. There may be some good ones even for low estimate guys. RPM for player pairs and lineups would help suggest where they might exist / be real or potential real or close. JE do you have a Brooks - George player pair RPM?

I am not taking an immediate opinion on Brooks. But fwiw he was in rotation this season and NBA coaches have right or wrong given him over 13,000 minutes in his career.

shadow
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Re: Trade Paul George

Post by shadow » Tue May 02, 2017 5:43 pm

The Pacers didn't really struggle much on offense against the Cavs. They had an ORTG of 115.5 for the series. They needed someone to play some semblance of defense. Needless to say Brooks looks even worse when you focus on his DRAPM. This isn't penalizing him for his lack of height either like RPM might.

2008: -0.8
2009: -1.86
2010: -1.64
2011: -3.11
2012: -3.07
2013: -4.21
2014: -1.13
2015: -2.65
2016: -1.23

Brooks has only been on 5 playoff teams in his career and one of those is this season where he played 7 minutes in 1 game. There are plenty of below average players who rack up minutes in the NBA. Doesn't mean they would be a difference maker in a playoff series.

Crow
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Re: Trade Paul George

Post by Crow » Tue May 02, 2017 8:10 pm

No, but Pacers went out 4-0. Trying something else probably wouldn't have made major difference but what they stayed with wasn't enough and continued to be not enough. Sometimes you might try different even if it is low odds. Searching. And being strongly positive in modest regular season use made it a decent long shot. What would have been better? I haven't looked for that.

shadow
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Re: Trade Paul George

Post by shadow » Tue May 02, 2017 10:03 pm

Saying they "went out 4-0" is a bit disingenuous. They lost 4 games by a combined 16 points and blew the biggest halftime lead in playoff history I believe in Game 3. It was tied with one other series for the closest four game sweep in NBA history. They were pretty unlucky to have not won Game 3 and were a CJ Miles jumper away from being tied 2-2 through four games. In game 4 they had the lead with 90 seconds to go before ultimately losing. Unfortunately, we're probably going to have to wait for the NBA Finals for any team to have a realistic chance of exposing Cleveland since the other East contenders were reasonably lucky in the regular season as well and aren't as good as their records indicate. It's not unreasonable to think Boston would already be eliminated if Rondo hadn't been injured.

I'm far from an expert, but I think the Pacers' issue was basically lousy pick and roll defense as a team, rather than any specific personnel issue. In game 1 they switched practically every pick and roll and the results were abysmal. The Cavs scored 109 points on 88.6 possessions for an ORTG of 123. This left Teague and Ellis guarding LeBron when the Cavs ran their 1-3 PnR with Kyrie/LeBron. If you replace Ellis/Teague with Brooks in that situation the results are likely the same, if not worse. If you're switching your PG onto LeBron and your only bench option is an even smaller guard with an even worse defensive pedigree, then that's not going to solve anything. In game 2 they tried to hedge and recover on the PnR instead of switching constantly, but this just led to the Cavs getting open look after open look when Indiana failed to recover and/or rotate in an effective manner. I honestly thought this was their best option since they have athletic bigs in Turner and Young who fit the Chris Bosh PnR hedger prototype. They just weren't very good at executing this strategy. They couldn't really take the approach of coming with a hard trap or double team on the PnR because the Cavs can spread the floor very well and LeBron in particular is a master at finding open shooters. The only other strategy that might have worked would be to ICE the PnR and try to prevent Cleveland from even using the pick in the PnR to begin with and try to force them into long twos.

Here's a textbook example of how not to defend the PnR:

https://youtu.be/Mhm-lAoiKRk?t=165

The defender's feet are positioned in such a way that he's inviting Kyrie to use the screen. He should be forcing Kyrie away from the screen as much as possible. Tom Thibodeau preaches 'no middle' for a reason, nothing good usually comes from allowing the ball handler to use a screen in the middle of the floor. Back to the play, the big doesn't hedge and is stuck in no man's land deciding whether to help on Kyrie, whose man is now tailing him, or cover the rolling Thompson. The big needs to either hedge aggressively to prevent Kyrie from making a direct drive to the basket or he has to drop off enough so that Kyrie is forced into a long two and can't throw an easy lob to Thompson. It doesn't help that Young is staring at Richard Jefferson while he sets a meaningless off ball screen for Korver instead of being in position to help on the drive.

This kind of defense was commonplace throughout the entire series on the pick and roll.

Crow
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Re: Trade Paul George

Post by Crow » Wed May 03, 2017 11:09 pm

Play based analysis trumps general player stats and average performance by pairs or lineups. I won't do play analysis unless I've watched a ton and I didn't here. Thanks for your take.

Crow
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Re: Trade Paul George

Post by Crow » Mon Jun 19, 2017 2:57 am

6 months ago I recommended trading Paul George. They probably looked at it at the deadline but they didn't do it. Now there is a report that George doesn't want to stay. Teams are said to be expecting him to be a rental and will probably price him accordingly. Could they have gotten more earlier? I dunno. Probably wouldn't have gotten less.

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