Trade Paul George

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Crow
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Re: Trade Paul George

Post by Crow » Tue Jun 20, 2017 2:59 am

Clarkson, Randle and #28 for George? Ha. I dunno if I'd take that package into pure cap space.

JoshEngleman
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Re: Trade Paul George

Post by JoshEngleman » Wed Jun 21, 2017 3:18 pm

If the Pacers are determined to stay relevant, then the Kevin Love rumor is definitely what they should do. It's going to be difficult to get a really good asset back since no one expects George to return after this season. There's not that much surplus value in him at this point. It's all about whether you think you can re-sign him.

shadow
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Re: Trade Paul George

Post by shadow » Sat Jul 01, 2017 2:18 am

PG to OKC for Sabonis and Oladipo. PG gets a year to convince RWB to go to LA with him.

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/1977 ... ty-thunder

Mike G
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Re: Trade Paul George

Post by Mike G » Sat Jul 01, 2017 10:42 am

Do teams in the East have some special motivation to become a minor-league counterpart to the West?
Is there any self-balancing mechanism that will kick in and make the East more attractive to better players? Do West teams just have more money?

Crow
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Re: Trade Paul George

Post by Crow » Sat Jul 01, 2017 4:22 pm

Yeah waiting 4-6 months sure made sense. Outstanding botch job by the insiders.


Some eastern execs seem emotional / irrational. Lowering the bar- for eastern games against each other.

Rd11490
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Re: Trade Paul George

Post by Rd11490 » Sat Jul 01, 2017 6:49 pm

I can not understand the rational behind some of these FOs, especially the ones in the East. Jimmy Butler trade, followed up by some of their signings, PG13 trade, Orlando offering 4yr - $60M to joe Ingels... Why is so much incompetence clustered in the east?

Crow
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Re: Trade Paul George

Post by Crow » Sat Jul 01, 2017 6:56 pm

Observation: the 3 examples you make, all are for long, long time owners. Either they have lost focus / interest / control in basketball decisions or they can playing some other game. Maybe maximize immediate operating profits? Or perhaps, more forgivng, just blaise about anything less than top contention.

Nathan
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Re: Trade Paul George

Post by Nathan » Sat Jul 01, 2017 8:22 pm

Box score stats say that Oladipo was a mediocre-at-best player last year, and that Paul George, while perhaps not quite as good as his mainstream reputation, should be a big upgrade. Plus/minus stats, on the other hand, suggest that Oladipo was actually quite good (36th in shadow's RAPM at +2.55), and George will only be a minor upgrade (+2.99), a defense-for-offense swap. Which do you all think is closer to true? Is this a surefire playoff team in a tougher-than-ever west, or will they more likely be battling for the 6th/7th/8th seed again?

Crow
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Re: Trade Paul George

Post by Crow » Sat Jul 01, 2017 9:34 pm

The dust has't settled yet, but I'd probably make them favorite for 4th seed. 5th or 6th could happen with some blip / injury. 7th would be clear disappointment. Unlikely to go lower without major injury.

Mike G
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Re: Trade Paul George

Post by Mike G » Sat Jul 01, 2017 10:36 pm

Paul George may be the most "like Durant" player in the league. Durant Lite, if you will. But he can be 2nd fiddle to the Oscar-ized Westbrook.
If Kanter kan learn to play PF, take a few outside shots and hustle back on D, both he and Adams can play more minutes and approach all-star level. It might more than make up the difference between George and Durant.
Roberson as the 'weakest' starter would be like Tayshaun Prince'-situation: Not a bad place to be.

Oladipo seems to be one of the 100 best players in the world, maybe 75th. So he's 3rd best player on an average NBA team, 4th on a good team. Is that mediocre?

bondom343
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Re: Trade Paul George

Post by bondom343 » Sun Jul 02, 2017 1:12 am

That was unexpected.
Mike G wrote:Paul George may be the most "like Durant" player in the league. Durant Lite, if you will. But he can be 2nd fiddle to the Oscar-ized Westbrook.
And this was exactly my sentiment. What's stranger is OKC saved money and their hypothetical "worst case" if Westbrook signs the DVPE is having Oladipo's contract gone. Though honestly I felt he was worth it, it's a big savings for a salary crunched team.

shadow
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Re: Trade Paul George

Post by shadow » Sun Jul 02, 2017 7:05 pm

In my multi-year RAPM, Oladipo ranks 92nd at +1.71 while George is 22nd at +3.89. That would equate to around 3-4 more wins if they played the same number of minutes. I think George will be able to have a higher impact on defense than he did this past year now that he has another star to shoulder the offensive load. If he returns to a +1 or greater impact in DRAPM (which he's done 4 of 7 years), I think the Thunder will be comfortably in the playoffs, but still not quite a legitimate threat to the elite West teams.

Mike G
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Re: Trade Paul George

Post by Mike G » Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:50 pm

Among shooting guards this year, Oladipo was 7th in RPM and 6th in RPM-Wins.
Last year he was 6th in both.

Does multi-year assume he will regress toward his previous (lower) ratings? Is Paul George expected to revert to his pre-injury self?

shadow
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Re: Trade Paul George

Post by shadow » Sun Jul 02, 2017 11:13 pm

I have matchup files going back to 2006. My multi-year ratings are just from one giant RAPM with all of that data, with each season being given 50% less weight as you go back in time. So the effective weights are approximately:

2017: 50%
2016: 25%
2015: 12.5%
2014: 6.25%
2013: 3.13%
2012: 1.56%
2006-2011: less than 1%

This weight is in addition to the possession weight given to each matchup stint. So the total weight for each season will vary for each player based on how much they played each season. It's possible for a player's 2016 season to carry more weight than his 2017 season if his 2017 season was cut extremely short by injury for instance.

So this version of multi-year isn't really assuming anyone regresses to their previous single year ratings, it's just using more data to get more lineup combinations, with exponentially higher weights given to more recent seasons. So it should be more predictive than single year NPI RAPM or multi-year RAPM with equal weight given to all of the included seasons.

Given that SG is a relatively weak position, Oladipo still ranks 15th among SGs in my multi-year RAPM, despite being 92nd overall. RPM has always liked him a bit more than RAPM, presumably because of his offensive box score stats, at least prior to him joining OKC.

Mike G
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Re: Trade Paul George

Post by Mike G » Mon Jul 03, 2017 12:11 am

Suppose after 4 years, a player has these RAPM:

Code: Select all

yr RAPM
1  -2.0
2   0.0
3   2.0
4   4.0
For simplicity, assume he had the same minutes or possessions each season.
Weighting years by 1/2, 1/4, etc, we would get an assumption or prior value for year 5 of about 2.53
But the casual eye test suggests he's heading for +6
What would you expect, if you were asked to predict his year-5 value?

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