2017 draft analytics

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Crow
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Re: 2017 draft analytics

Post by Crow » Sat Apr 15, 2017 5:29 am

3 category stat stuffers (pts, rebs, asts) are high profile in NBA. You probably benefit if your star is high on at least two. 3 may or may not be necessary if you have other talent. Could signal team weaknesses and over-dependence / deference. 3 assists seems to the toughest to get. Telling about supporting college talent and that skill? Role players may be fine if they excel at just one but it is better for team balance if they are not real light on the others.

With these thoughts in mind, I went to the DX mock and was looking for a filter and decided to check for guys averaging at least 15pts, 6 rebs and 3 assists per game. Per 36 minute might be better but this was a quick, first cut. Only 3 of the top 60 fully met the criteria. Some near misses may be worth checking later. The 3 included two of the top 3 prospects and Caleb Swanigan.

So long intro over, does anyone have comments on him? I am just starting to look at him.

Anyone have research on likelihood of a 3 category college producer doing it in NBA? By position, by age? I see 65 college players met the criteria in last 7 years. 10 are current NBA players. Draymond Green is the biggest name. School & conference quality obviously matters and looking at that could separate the main candidates from the list makers with no takers. Efficiency matters. Evan Turner was also on this list. Ben Simmons too. Where will Simmons be on the efficiency scales? May be lower than the most hopeful / expectant think.

Swanigan bear any stat or play similarity to Jokic, M Gasol, Cousins, Horford, Towns, Mason Plumlee, etc.? Unusual to get a guy that big / long doing this. Important? I dunno. But worth considering a bit.

12 of the 60 names in the mock draft meet either 15pts / 8 rebs or 15 pts / 5 assists. I'd probably give those some extra attention. Again per 36 minutes or per 100 possessions would probably be better. And my criteria might be adjusted if necessary to make the category achievement percentiles closer to each other, if they are off some.

EvanZ
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Re: 2017 draft analytics

Post by EvanZ » Fri Apr 21, 2017 3:40 pm

I like Swanigan. I think the main knock on him is lack of athleticism/ability to play above the rim. But he has got in a lot better shape year over year, and I think that's a positive. Draymond Green would not be the player he has become if he didn't get into great shape. So to me a guy like Swanigan actually has upside, because I think a player (if he wants it) has virtually complete control over his fitness level, that he does not quite have over a skill like ball handling or shooting. It seems that Swanigan checks a lot of boxes and still has quite a bit of upside.

Wanted to come here to ask if anyone has "scouted" Jacob Wiley (Eastern Washington). Apparently had a great PIT and, the age red flag notwithstanding (he'll be 23 before training camp), seems like he could be a very useful player to a good team that is looking for non-drafted talent *cough*Warriors*cough*:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4vopSE99AvQ

Crow
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Re: 2017 draft analytics

Post by Crow » Fri Apr 21, 2017 7:26 pm

Jake Wiley, good highlights. Aaron Gordon came to mind as a possible comp. How close? Pretty close on many aspects of offense. Wiley the better shooter, higher usage. (lesser competition). Not as similar on defense; good not great.

I guess a multiple transfer. Don't the full story. A father. Seems mature, passionate about ball.

I could see him as a worthwhile, no or low commitment pickup.


Always plenty of research questions out there. Another: are players with kids or no kids at certain ages better or not? Depending on team role?

Dr Positivity
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Re: 2017 draft analytics

Post by Dr Positivity » Sat Apr 22, 2017 1:40 am

Changing my method of analysis a little this year and Josh Jackson is now coming out as the top NCAA prospect to me. Definitely someone where the character analysis is important though.

Jawun Evans wins my award for the most obviously underrated. I just don't think this is a league anymore where the 2 inches he lacks matters as much as mock drafts are reflecting right now, for a player who had the assists per minute of Ball and scoring volume of Fultz this year

mrichards
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Re: 2017 draft analytics

Post by mrichards » Sat Apr 22, 2017 4:43 pm

Care to share your "new" method of analysis? Interesting to see Josh Jackson come out as the top prospect. I would be somewhat surprised if he came out a top prospect in our model given his horrendous free throw shooting numbers.
Dr Positivity wrote:Changing my method of analysis a little this year and Josh Jackson is now coming out as the top NCAA prospect to me. Definitely someone where the character analysis is important though.

Jawun Evans wins my award for the most obviously underrated. I just don't think this is a league anymore where the 2 inches he lacks matters as much as mock drafts are reflecting right now, for a player who had the assists per minute of Ball and scoring volume of Fultz this year

Dr Positivity
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Re: 2017 draft analytics

Post by Dr Positivity » Sun Apr 23, 2017 12:38 am

3 steps

Step 1 - Overall statistical rating (Similar to other draft models - players who perform well in all stats, high steal/assist combo, etc.)

Step 2 - How the player did in each skillset/stat compared to college conference competition

Step 3 - Whether they have the tools to support their skill in Step 2

Therefore the "perfect skill" aces all three. This is rare as there's only so many players who have a great overall rating to begin with, then hit the other guidelines. Simmons last year had two. In addition to his top 5 overall stats, he was generationally good for a PF prospect in two areas. His freakish assists rate needs no explanation, but he was also a monster at getting to the FT line at 10.3 FTA/40 on only 13.4 FGA, and as a freshman. There's no reason to doubt his tools in these areas, ball handling could be seen as key to assists and he has it, height to see over opponents. For getting to the line he has the athleticism, handling and strength. Overall based on this I would think Simmons has the potential to be the best PF in the league at passing and getting to the line and it would be a shock if he wasn't above average at both at his floor. In past years I believe both Splash Brothers shooting would have rated similarly to those Simmons skills.

It gets a lot more tricky when it comes to having a flawed performance in any of the three areas. If a player has an "AAB" (two elite, one good") I still have him written down as elite prospect in that skill, or 9/10 basically. Then it goes on down from there. When I looked at my experiment with this that I did (I created this idea a year ago, but stuck with the more numbers driven ratings) I was pretty happy with the performance of rookies in the highest rated skills in the class, even if the player struggled in other areas. For example Dunn's defense was the highest rated skill in the class other than Simmons two, and for his offense struggles, his defensive stats were great this year. There just aren't that many really high rated skills there. If a prospect is only decent at the overall stats part, it limits his upside. No matter what he does he will always be risky. For example Buddy Hield may have been a kick ass shooter in college, but because he blows a tire on the overall stats rating, he was never a guarantee using this system, I had him rated as a 7/10 shooting prospect last year. (Which I think he will end up outperforming to his credit)

In this year's class of the top guys Lonzo's passing is the overall best skill but he is only an ok prospect outside of that. Jackson's defense, passing and slashing are all 8-9/10 level. So he comes out the best right now imo. (and attempts to quantify things gives him the lead too) Fultz suffers because his overall statistical rating is good not elite like those two. He is well rounded but the only thing he rates as an elite prospect to me at is taking shots.

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Re: 2017 draft analytics

Post by EvanZ » Sun Apr 23, 2017 2:50 pm

I'd be higher on Jackson if he could be a starting 4 like Draymond, but I'm not sure he is long or strong enough to move up a position. Guys who can't shoot are just super risky picks to me to take that high. MKG had so many great intangible assets, but his shooting is still preventing him from being an impact player. I have similar concerns for JJ than I did for Aaron Gordon. He's so great at so many things, but he just can't shoot, which limits his impact.

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Re: 2017 draft analytics

Post by mrichards » Wed Apr 26, 2017 2:30 am

Dr Positivity wrote:
Step 1 - Overall statistical rating (Similar to other draft models - players who perform well in all stats, high steal/assist combo, etc.)
Do you create an actual draft model that predicts a value for this step? Or use advanced statistics and general box score statistics to gauge?
Dr Positivity wrote:
Step 2 - How the player did in each skillset/stat compared to college conference competition
Is this relative to the current year college conference competition? Or historically?

Ultimately, do you come to an overall prospect value for each player?

Dr Positivity
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Re: 2017 draft analytics

Post by Dr Positivity » Wed May 17, 2017 4:39 am

Celtics get #1 pick and are taking Fultz if they don't trade it according to Ford

I say trade it for Butler considering my lukewarm rating of Fultz, and questionable fit with Isaiah (Fultz biggest strength projects as shot creation)
Last edited by Dr Positivity on Wed May 17, 2017 4:59 am, edited 1 time in total.

Dr Positivity
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Re: 2017 draft analytics

Post by Dr Positivity » Wed May 17, 2017 4:44 am

mrichards wrote:
Do you create an actual draft model that predicts a value for this step? Or use advanced statistics and general box score statistics to gauge?
Yes I have a model for this just based on the numbers, although the results on their own have the usual hiccups, falling in love with guys like Walkup, etc.

Is this relative to the current year college conference competition? Or historically?

Ultimately, do you come to an overall prospect value for each player?
I look at how high they rank in categories for their position in their current conference for this year. Right now I basically just eyeball it to be honest, so between that and trying to rate whether a prospect has tools for that skill, the overall final value isn't quant. Not the most scientific way to do it but my draft analysis has always been a combination of numbers and philosophy, I am nowhere near as talented on the math side as other guys doing this stuff, so I try to make it up in the latter

jgoldstein34
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Re: 2017 draft analytics

Post by jgoldstein34 » Wed May 17, 2017 6:27 am

As much as I like the idea of trading for Butler, does adding Butler give them a better chance to make the finals than the Cavs next year? I almost think the best strategy is to wait out LeBron. They have a good team now that if everything goes right can make the finals, and if everything goes super right they can win it. If they keep all these picks and do a good job developing prospects and managing contracts, they can easily be the main competition with the Bucks to takeover the East once the Cavs fade as LeBron gets older.

I'm not sure where I saw the reporting on this, but apparently some agents are keeping their clients from working out with the Celtics because they don't want them to end up as backups in their first few seasons.

JoshEngleman
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Re: 2017 draft analytics

Post by JoshEngleman » Thu May 18, 2017 5:58 pm

If I'm Boston (and if life were a video game), I'm trying to trade Isaiah in the package for Butler. That would lessen the amount of assets that need to be included on the way out while also helping the logjam in the back court. I can't imagine them doing this, but now is the perfect time to cash in on Isaiah.

jgoldstein34
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Re: 2017 draft analytics

Post by jgoldstein34 » Fri May 19, 2017 2:36 pm

JoshEngleman wrote:If I'm Boston (and if life were a video game), I'm trying to trade Isaiah in the package for Butler. That would lessen the amount of assets that need to be included on the way out while also helping the logjam in the back court. I can't imagine them doing this, but now is the perfect time to cash in on Isaiah.
This is actually a really good idea in a hypothetical world. Could never imagine them doing this, but brilliant idea.

Statman
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Re: 2017 draft analytics

Post by Statman » Fri May 19, 2017 3:16 pm

JoshEngleman wrote:If I'm Boston (and if life were a video game), I'm trying to trade Isaiah in the package for Butler. That would lessen the amount of assets that need to be included on the way out while also helping the logjam in the back court. I can't imagine them doing this, but now is the perfect time to cash in on Isaiah.
Totally agree. Selling high on an elite scoring 5'9" guard who will never be a good defender would be smart. Won't happen of course.

JoshEngleman
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Re: 2017 draft analytics

Post by JoshEngleman » Fri May 19, 2017 3:46 pm

It's a shame, too. I would assume you could make that deal without including the 2018 Brooklyn pick. Something like Butler for Isaiah, Tyler Zeller and the 2019 Memphis pick. Or include Avery Bradley, if you don't want to pay him later. Problem is, I'm not sure they can do that deal AND sign Hayward to a max deal.

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