Mavs

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Crow
Posts: 6188
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Mavs

Post by Crow » Fri Apr 07, 2017 2:20 pm

What analytic observations do folks have about them this season and about their future?

Here are a few of mine.

Carlisle is often rated as a top coach. Maybe he is but imo he seems somewhat overrated, especially for playoffs. 15 years coaching, 12 playoffs is good. 3 deep runs is good. 11 series won (I think) in 12 appearances might be good comparatively but was it that good for the talent he had? Would have to consider further & compare but it doesn't really wow me that much. 48% overall playoff win%. Alright, maybe good, not "great".

This season Carlisle has used 782 lineups. Only 27% were positive. That is the lowest I recall seeing, though I haven't checked everyone or recently.

Dirk with new hyped arrival Harrison Barnes is the worst performing player pair amongst top 15 pairs on minutes at almost -8 per 100 possessions. Only one lineup with the pair used over 50 minutes was positive and that one only got 51 minutes for season. Not much good discovered there. Was the testing intelligent & rigorous enough? Maybe it is just a bad pair, a bad management call. It is rare to see a star pair perform that bad overall.

You want an intermediate future with Dirk and Barnes? I'd play that best lineup with the pair more and find others and accept the need to win more with just one on court.

Barnes as the leader of future? Better change dramatically. Performance and players. Top 7 player pairs by minutes all negative. Very little to build off. If they have a platform to build off it might that Curry Matthews Barnes Nowitski Noel lineup that got 51 minute testing while Carlisle spent all the rest of time on 781 other lineups, almost all dink or super-dink, essentially meaningless (for knowledge) lineups.

Yogi Ferrell? Cool story. Some good individual stats. But team plus minus modestly negative overall. 4 of top 5 player pairs negative and the other barely above neutral. Barnes, one of his worst players. Dirk slightly positive. Got to improve to be more than a water treading 30 something win team. Plays well with Devin Harris. Try to use that or let it float away?

Noel? Bad with Barnes, lousy with Matthews, just neutral with Ferrell, good with Curry. Not sure about with Dirk. Not much testing. And not much fit overall, yet.

More on Barnes. PER rates him barely above average. Winshares per 48 and RPM below average. BPM well below average performance. Bad value now, long way to decent. Getting to good performance, good value? I guess there is some chance but no much to indicate it is ever coming. Post all-star game he was overall worse than before. Only 3 point shooting got better.

Crow
Posts: 6188
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Mavs

Post by Crow » Wed May 31, 2017 10:53 pm

Barnes ends up with a real close to no impact estimates on ORPM and DRPM. Team record does not dis agree. Weak return on a mega-salary and the hype they gave him.

Statman
Posts: 548
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 5:29 pm
Location: Arlington, Texas
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Re: Mavs

Post by Statman » Wed Jun 07, 2017 3:42 pm

Slightly related.

Hey Mavs, let's talk. Hire me, you absolutely would never regret it. I'm already interviewing for jobs that would force me to relocate from DFW.

This is silly. I should have been working for you guys two years ago. I admit, I probably haven't marketed myself nearly well enough, & I am not your traditional data scientist. I still should be producing work for you, every day. The fact we've never had a sit down, or even a conference call, now seems crazy to me.

I could undoubtedly help rectify issues that will come up in a thread such as this. There's much work to be done.

OK, my thread hijack is over, just wanted to get that off my chest. My Pavlov's dog reaction to seeing the word "Mavs", although I usually keep it buried deep inside. As you were.

Crow
Posts: 6188
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Mavs

Post by Crow » Thu Jun 08, 2017 4:04 pm

I hear some early analysts that got hired, sent in regular reports by email, with mild encouragement or not. I imagine others who have done this got nowhere.

Have you tried getting on Dallas radio or doing a podcast? That could raise profile.

There are ex-Mavs interns who post here occasionally & Twitter. Their analytics director does too. Have you reached out to them directly?

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