Should the Warriors Trade Klay Thompson?

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jgoldstein34
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Should the Warriors Trade Klay Thompson?

Post by jgoldstein34 » Sun May 21, 2017 2:33 am

I know this is kind of a crazy idea, but I looked at the Warriors cap situation going forward and it isn't pretty.

Image
(Text in blue is expected salary)

So assume Curry and Durant resign at their max, 35% of the cap each this off-season. Not even looking at bringing back Iguodala or any other key bench players, they'll already be $13.6 million over the cap for 2017-18.

In 2018-19, they'll have a team option on Kevon Looney for $2.2 million and a team option on Damian Jones for $1.5 million, so they'll either have be between $17.6 million and $21.3 million over the cap, depending on if they exercise the options for Looney and Jones.

In 2019-20, they'll have another team option on Damian Jones for $2.3 million. It's possible Klay Thompson makes an all-nba team in the next 2 season and is available for a DVE. Now each team can have a maximum of two players on a DVE, so they'll likely have to chose between Klay and Draymond for the 2nd spot (part of the reason I think they should trade Klay). My assumption is that Draymond is more likely to qualify and more deserving of the bigger contract and they'll give it to him. So I have Klay penciled in for a 30% max starting in 2019-20 at $32.1 million with max 8% raises. This is where the Luxury Tax starts coming in. I'd project it to be around $21.6 million bringing the total season cost to $164 million.

In 2020-21, Draymond will be up for a new contract and I'd assume he qualifies for a DVE by then. A 35% DVE would start at $39.3 million. Their luxury tax bill would be a massive $106.8 million with a $278.1 million total cost.

In 2021-22, their tax bill would jump again to $141.9 million with an insane $326.7 million total cost.

In 2022-23, KD and Curry would need to be resigned. If I'm understanding the CBA correctly, the maximum they can sign for is 35% of the max, which is currently estimated by RealGM to be $124 million. Those contracts would be starting at $43.4 million each. Their tax bill would actually decrease to "only" $123.4 million because KD and Curry would be getting paid less than the previous year. However, they'd become a tax repeater this season so they'd be taxed at a higher rate.

In 2023-24, they'd end up with a $163.9 million tax bill and an insane $360.4 million total cost thanks to an insane $196.5 million payroll.

Everything I'm trying to illustrate here is that financially have 4 max players on a team is really not a feasible situation if the team wants to have any other players on the roster outside of minimum guys. I didn't even account for the possibility of draft picks because they'd likely have to trade away their picks every season to make this work.

This is why I think they should trade Klay Thompson. Not because they want to or because it's a smart basketball decision, but because he is the most easily expendable of the core 4 and they'd like to be able to pay the other guys on the roster. Here's what their books would look like if I just removed Klay via Free agency in 2019-20:

Image
(Text in blue is expected salary)

Now if they traded him even earlier, they would be able to at least get something back and be able to avoid massive tax bills, only paying $8.2 million in total tax in the next 7 years. I think Klay is by far the most replaceable guy out of the core 4 and almost all metrics rate him as the worst of the group. I don't think this is the best move for basketball reasons, but I think they're good enough to be able to absorb his loss and still be a historically elite team.

Really interested to hear other people's thoughts on this. I don't think it has really been talked about much and it could be a huge problem going forward for the Warriors.

bondom343
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Re: Should the Warriors Trade Klay Thompson?

Post by bondom343 » Sun May 21, 2017 4:17 am

Been thinking this as well. There's also a pretty distinct chance both he and Green qualify for the DVPE, at which point they're going to want the money. Is he traded sooner I think is the interesting part.

jgoldstein34
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Re: Should the Warriors Trade Klay Thompson?

Post by jgoldstein34 » Sun May 21, 2017 3:07 pm

Agreed, the only argument I could think of for giving it to Klay over Draymond is that Klay would sign it at 28 where as Draymond would be 29. I don't think that's enough of a difference for the Warriors considering how much better Draymond has been than Klay. Unless Draymond starts off next season and age is clearly hurting him already, I think they have to trade Klay by the trade deadline. Or be willing to pay 4 guys + Luxury tax and just count on enough ring chasers coming to fill out the team.

Crow
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Re: Should the Warriors Trade Klay Thompson?

Post by Crow » Sun May 21, 2017 4:27 pm

I wrote something similar but briefer elsewhere last night.

I don't think they do anything before summer 2018 unless they lose badly to Cavs.

Dr Positivity
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Re: Should the Warriors Trade Klay Thompson?

Post by Dr Positivity » Sun May 21, 2017 4:34 pm

If they win the title this year then no, they should go all in on 2018 and 2019 to try and 3peat, worrying about losing their FA for nothing in 2019 is secondary compared to the goal of putting together a dynasty now. If they lose to the Cavs again though, trading Klay becomes a thing

jgoldstein34
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Re: Should the Warriors Trade Klay Thompson?

Post by jgoldstein34 » Sun May 21, 2017 6:13 pm

I just think it's a sneaky interesting story that's going to be a pretty huge thing going forward. It should give way more hope to NBA teams that they can win a chip relatively soon. I'm totally going to hope the Cavs win now just so we get maximum chaos.

Dr Positivity
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Re: Should the Warriors Trade Klay Thompson?

Post by Dr Positivity » Sun May 21, 2017 6:21 pm

There's also only so many years left for Iguodala to be a high impact player. If he followed Marion's career path he would have about 2 seasons after this one before being washed. Then again any team with Curry, Durant, Green should be nearly unbeatable no matter who else is on it

jgoldstein34
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Re: Should the Warriors Trade Klay Thompson?

Post by jgoldstein34 » Sun May 21, 2017 6:32 pm

Do they really drop that many wins if they replace Klay with either an average starting SG or a solid role-player SG? Maybe 4-5 wins? Any team with Draymond, Durant and Curry would be the likely favorite each year, even if not by as much. I would agree that Iggy is probably not going to be an impact player within 1-2 seasons, but I think they'll be able to attract ring chasers if they can offer playing time along with a chance to win a ring.

shadow
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Re: Should the Warriors Trade Klay Thompson?

Post by shadow » Thu Jun 01, 2017 7:24 pm

Sources: Durant willing to take less than max to keep Warriors core together:

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/1950 ... ore-intact

EvanZ
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Re: Should the Warriors Trade Klay Thompson?

Post by EvanZ » Thu Jun 01, 2017 8:30 pm

The only way this happens is if McCaw becomes a 38% 3pt shooter on high volume and can replace Klay as starting 2.

jgoldstein34
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Re: Should the Warriors Trade Klay Thompson?

Post by jgoldstein34 » Thu Jun 01, 2017 10:22 pm

Durant being willing to do this helps, going to need sacrifice from everyone going forward though to keep it together.

Klay is by far the most replaceable even if he won't be fully replaced by whomever they get. Durant and Curry can pick up the slack too.

Nathan
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Re: Should the Warriors Trade Klay Thompson?

Post by Nathan » Thu Jun 01, 2017 11:28 pm

It's not too big a deal in the playoffs, where Steph and Klay can both play 40+ minutes if necessary, but the Warriors' backcourt is perilously thin behind them. McCaw, Livingston, and Clark have BPMs of -1.7, -2.0, -2.0, and RPMs of -4.7, -2.4, -2.9. I see the positives for trading Klay, but at the same time, you don't want to risk the best backcourt in the NBA turning into Curry and a bunch of stiffs.

jgoldstein34
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Re: Should the Warriors Trade Klay Thompson?

Post by jgoldstein34 » Fri Jun 02, 2017 12:30 am

Oh it's absolutely risky, but Curry and anyone at all is still an elite backcourt. Klay has been terrible in the playoffs and the Warriors still walked all over every other team. He's a luxury. Nice to have, but not required to get the job done.

Crow
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Re: Should the Warriors Trade Klay Thompson?

Post by Crow » Fri Jun 02, 2017 4:48 pm

Klay to the Lakers... if Magic / Pelinka pay fairly or overpay? For young guys & picks? Klay & George... possible or will last summer's dumb moves prevent? 3 or 4 team fancy cap savvy deal?

jgoldstein34
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Re: Should the Warriors Trade Klay Thompson?

Post by jgoldstein34 » Fri Jun 02, 2017 10:51 pm

If the Warriors trade Klay for any young guys, it has to be for someone who can at least hit a 3 at this point and not make to many mistakes on D WHILE having some form of upside still.

If the Lakers can trade for Klay and bring in PG via free agency next year, could actually be the start of a decent little playoff team. Not a championship team, but can at least make the playoffs and make them matter a little bit.

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