BPM - RPM Blend

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Crow
Posts: 6188
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

BPM - RPM Blend

Post by Crow » Thu Jun 08, 2017 4:57 pm

I am again looking at blends. I think I'll go with just a blend of BPM and RPM but I might make it broader in a later edition. This time I am going to do an offensive blend, one for defense, then a roll-up. My initial thought are to use blends of 60% OBPM plus 40% ORPM and 35% DBPM plus 65% DRPM to recognize where imo each is better / worse. But before I lock in and print results, does anyone have opinions to share on those ratios? I'll be using Knarsu's file.

jgoldstein34
Posts: 240
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2016 6:38 pm

Re: BPM - RPM Blend

Post by jgoldstein34 » Thu Jun 08, 2017 7:09 pm

No issue with it, but curious as to your weighting OBPM more than ORPM. Any specific reason?

permaximum
Posts: 413
Joined: Tue Nov 27, 2012 7:04 pm

Re: BPM - RPM Blend

Post by permaximum » Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:07 pm

Objective?

Crow
Posts: 6188
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: BPM - RPM Blend

Post by Crow » Fri Jun 09, 2017 2:02 am

I gave OBPM a bigger share because there is some feeling that box score metrics can "get" direct offensive impact pretty well. This is arguable, so I asked for feedback. I knew I wanted to weight DRPM more, maybe even exclusively, because I regard DBPM to be very poor due to the way it handles shot defense and risk taking in general. I gave DBPM some weight because of the blend concept / impulse. I turned to offense and did something similar, perhaps to keep it a blend that drew fairly strongly from both without going to exactly equal partners, something I've done before. I consider these to be subjective judgments but as "objective" as I could make them quickly. Ideally these weights would be found by regression. If someone wants to do a best fit analysis for these 4 elements I would be very interested in the assist. These is "ultimate" solution, yet. Just a quick start to something that could be refined. There should be some blend for inspection. This or better.

permaximum
Posts: 413
Joined: Tue Nov 27, 2012 7:04 pm

Re: BPM - RPM Blend

Post by permaximum » Fri Jun 09, 2017 7:02 am

I didn't mean to doubt it's objectiveness. Your reasoning sounds fair. I just wanted to know your exact purpose :) . I mean like predicting wins, predicting spread, individual player impact...

Crow
Posts: 6188
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: BPM - RPM Blend

Post by Crow » Fri Jun 09, 2017 4:52 pm

Here the focus is player impact with player impact measured in as impact on team plus minus while on court.

Mike G
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Location: Asheville, NC

Re: BPM - RPM Blend

Post by Mike G » Fri Jun 09, 2017 7:25 pm

I'd think the optimal weight on each ingredient in a blend would be that which best predicts (retrodicts) team point differential from one year to the next.

Statman
Posts: 548
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Location: Arlington, Texas
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Re: BPM - RPM Blend

Post by Statman » Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:02 am

Crow wrote:I am again looking at blends. I think I'll go with just a blend of BPM and RPM but I might make it broader in a later edition. This time I am going to do an offensive blend, one for defense, then a roll-up. My initial thought are to use blends of 60% OBPM plus 40% ORPM and 35% DBPM plus 65% DRPM to recognize where imo each is better / worse. But before I lock in and print results, does anyone have opinions to share on those ratios? I'll be using Knarsu's file.
Am I wrong, but doesn't RPM include box score metrics? Wasn't BPM created in a way to best correlate to RPM? If so, wouldn't this maybe just be sort of double counting BPM (assuming the box score weights of BPM somewhat mirror the weights in RPM)?

That being said, it may smooth the crazier outliers of either method, like almost blends obviously do. Westbrook will probably still look like the GOAT with the blend, because he's off the charts in BPM.

jgoldstein34
Posts: 240
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2016 6:38 pm

Re: BPM - RPM Blend

Post by jgoldstein34 » Sat Jun 10, 2017 4:36 pm

BPM was regressed against RAPM, so not quite the same as RPM. The RPM formula isn't publicly available, so while it probably uses ESPN's own version of BPM, including BPM in the weighting shouldn't be a problem.

Crow
Posts: 6188
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: BPM - RPM Blend

Post by Crow » Sat Jun 10, 2017 6:46 pm

Fwiw, here is the above specified version of a BPM-RPM blend:

Code: Select all

Player	OBPM	ORPM	Off. Blend		DBPM	DRPM	Def. Blend	Overall Blend
Russell Westbrook	10.9	6.7	9.2		4.7	-0.7	1.2	10.4
Chris Paul	7.7	5.2	6.7		0.9	2.9	2.2	8.9
LeBron James	6.8	6.0	6.5		1.6	1.4	1.4	7.9
Nikola Jokic	6.1	4.4	5.4		2.1	2.3	2.2	7.6
Stephen Curry	7.8	6.7	7.4		-0.4	0.4	0.1	7.5
James Harden	8.7	6.6	7.9		1.5	-1.8	-0.6	7.2
Jimmy Butler	5.8	5.0	5.5		1.1	2.1	1.8	7.2
Kawhi Leonard	6.4	5.4	6.0		1.5	0.8	1.0	7.0
Kevin Durant	5.4	4.1	4.9		2.6	1.6	1.9	6.8
Kyle Lowry	7.1	4.8	6.2		-0.5	0.9	0.4	6.6
Rudy Gobert	1.4	0.7	1.1		4.5	6.0	5.5	6.6
Giannis Antetokounmpo	4.1	2.5	3.5		3.5	1.7	2.3	5.8
Draymond Green	0.4	1.5	0.8		4.9	4.9	4.9	5.7
Mike Conley	6.5	4.6	5.7		-0.7	-0.5	-0.6	5.2
DeMarcus Cousins	3.9	3.6	3.8		2.6	0.6	1.3	5.1
DeAndre Jordan	1	1.1	1.0		3	3.6	3.4	4.4
Anthony Davis	1.4	0.5	1.0		2.3	3.9	3.3	4.4
Damian Lillard	6.4	4.8	5.8		-2	-1.3	-1.5	4.2
Blake Griffin	3.2	3.0	3.1		1.3	0.5	0.8	3.9
Gordon Hayward	4.2	3.2	3.8		0	0.0	0.0	3.8
Lucas Nogueira	-0.1	-0.7	-0.4		5.6	3.3	4.1	3.8
Paul Millsap	0.5	1.3	0.8		2.1	3.3	2.9	3.7
Isaiah Thomas	8.7	6.0	7.6		-3.4	-4.2	-3.9	3.7
George Hill	3.8	2.4	3.2		-0.2	0.8	0.5	3.7
Karl-Anthony Towns	4.8	3.5	4.3		0.3	-1.4	-0.8	3.5
Kemba Walker	5.3	3.9	4.8		-1.7	-1.3	-1.4	3.3
Marc Gasol	2	1.8	1.9		2.2	1.0	1.4	3.3
Amir Johnson	-0.2	0.5	0.1		2.4	3.7	3.2	3.3
Otto Porter	3	2.9	2.9		0.9	0.0	0.3	3.3
Andre Iguodala	1.3	2.0	1.6		1.7	1.6	1.6	3.2
John Wall	3.8	3.6	3.7		0.4	-1.0	-0.5	3.2
Zaza Pachulia	-0.3	-0.3	-0.3		3	3.4	3.3	3.0
Paul George	3.1	2.7	2.9		-0.3	0.2	0.0	3.0
Kevin Love	1.7	2.5	2.0		-1	1.9	0.9	2.9
Cody Zeller	-0.2	-0.1	-0.1		2.3	3.4	3.0	2.9
Robert Covington	-0.7	-0.8	-0.7		2.1	4.3	3.5	2.8
Pau Gasol	0.9	0.7	0.8		2.8	1.5	2.0	2.8
Jae Crowder	1.4	2.3	1.7		0.1	1.5	1.0	2.7
Al Horford	1	1.0	1.0		2.1	1.5	1.7	2.7
Eric Bledsoe	3.7	2.3	3.1		-0.4	-0.6	-0.5	2.6
Bradley Beal	4.5	3.2	4.0		-2.4	-0.9	-1.4	2.6
Patrick Beverley	0.8	1.1	0.9		1.5	1.6	1.6	2.5
James Johnson	0.5	0.4	0.5		2.2	2.0	2.0	2.5
Gorgui Dieng	-0.5	-0.8	-0.6		2.2	3.5	3.1	2.4
Joel Embiid	0	-0.6	-0.2		3.2	2.3	2.6	2.4
Dewayne Dedmon	-1.5	-1.5	-1.5		3.2	4.1	3.8	2.3
Myles Turner	-0.3	-0.1	-0.2		2.5	2.5	2.5	2.3
Kyrie Irving	4.8	4.1	4.5		-2.3	-2.2	-2.3	2.3
Danilo Gallinari	2.9	2.7	2.8		-2.1	0.3	-0.6	2.2
Nerlens Noel	-0.5	-1.3	-0.8		3.8	2.6	3.0	2.2
Patrick Patterson	0.5	1.4	0.9		0.4	1.6	1.2	2.1
Trevor Ariza	0.6	1.1	0.8		1	1.3	1.2	2.0
Manu Ginobili	0.5	1.5	0.9		1.4	0.9	1.1	2.0
David Lee	0.7	-0.6	0.2		2.5	1.4	1.8	1.9
David West	-1.8	-1.3	-1.6		3.9	3.4	3.6	1.9
Danny Green	-0.3	-0.3	-0.3		2.7	2.0	2.3	1.9
Joe Ingles	0.9	2.2	1.4		1.7	-0.1	0.5	1.9
Jrue Holiday	1.2	0.6	1.0		0.5	1.2	0.9	1.9
Brook Lopez	1.9	1.4	1.7		-0.4	0.5	0.2	1.9
Ricky Rubio	1.7	1.7	1.7		-1	0.7	0.1	1.8
Jeff Teague	2.4	1.9	2.2		-0.5	-0.4	-0.4	1.8
Goran Dragic	3.4	2.5	3.1		-0.7	-1.6	-1.3	1.8
Nikola Mirotic	0	1.1	0.4		0.5	1.6	1.2	1.7
Nene Hilario	-0.4	-1.3	-0.8		0.9	3.1	2.3	1.6
Dwight Howard	-0.5	-1.9	-1.0		2.8	2.5	2.6	1.6
Jeremy Lin	2.5	0.5	1.7		-0.4	0.0	-0.2	1.5
Larry Nance	-0.3	-1.2	-0.7		2.3	2.2	2.2	1.5
Lou Williams	3.7	3.5	3.6		-3	-1.6	-2.1	1.5
Greg Monroe	0.5	1.1	0.7		1.5	0.4	0.8	1.5
Rudy Gay	0.3	-0.2	0.1		0.4	2.0	1.4	1.5
Kyle OQuinn	-0.1	-1.3	-0.6		3.7	1.2	2.0	1.5
Patty Mills	2.5	2.5	2.5		-1.2	-0.9	-1.0	1.5
Kyle Anderson	-2.1	-2.0	-2.1		3.7	3.4	3.5	1.4
Klay Thompson	2.4	2.9	2.6		-2.1	-0.8	-1.2	1.4
DeMarre Carroll	0.7	0.1	0.4		0.4	1.1	0.9	1.3
Marreese Speights	1.5	0.7	1.2		-0.8	0.6	0.1	1.3
Mason Plumlee	0	0.6	0.2		2.6	0.2	1.0	1.3
Thaddeus Young	0	-1.0	-0.4		1.5	1.7	1.6	1.2
CJ McCollum	3.3	3.1	3.2		-2.2	-1.9	-2.0	1.2
Kristaps Porzingis	0.2	-0.3	0.0		0	1.9	1.2	1.2
Seth Curry	1.8	0.5	1.3		-0.4	0.0	-0.1	1.2
LaMarcus Aldridge	-0.3	0.1	-0.2		1.4	1.2	1.3	1.1
Ian Mahinmi	-2.1	-2.2	-2.1		2.9	3.4	3.2	1.1
Vince Carter	0.1	1.4	0.6		0.9	0.3	0.5	1.1
Luc Mbah a Moute	-0.8	-1.4	-1.0		1.6	2.3	2.0	1.0
Tobias Harris	1.1	1.2	1.1		0.1	-0.3	-0.1	1.0
Davis Bertans	1.2	0.0	0.7		0.5	0.1	0.3	1.0
Gary Harris	3.1	2.9	3.0		-1.5	-2.4	-2.1	0.9
Nicolas Batum	0.7	1.3	0.9		0.6	-0.4	0.0	0.9
Nikola Vucevic	-1.3	-1.4	-1.3		2.4	2.2	2.2	0.9
PJ Tucker	-0.7	-0.4	-0.6		1.6	1.4	1.4	0.9
Jared Dudley	-0.1	-0.7	-0.3		-0.1	1.9	1.2	0.9
Jerian Grant	0	0.6	0.2		-0.3	1.1	0.6	0.9
Tyler Johnson	0.7	0.1	0.5		0.7	0.2	0.4	0.8
Ryan Anderson	1.8	1.7	1.8		-2.6	-0.1	-1.0	0.8
Hassan Whiteside	-2	-0.7	-1.5		1.5	2.7	2.3	0.8
Steven Adams	-0.7	-0.3	-0.5		1.2	1.4	1.3	0.8
Ersan Ilyasova	0.3	1.0	0.6		-0.7	0.7	0.2	0.8
Channing Frye	0.8	1.3	1.0		-1.4	0.4	-0.2	0.8
Tyson Chandler	-0.7	-1.1	-0.9		0.3	2.2	1.6	0.7
Thabo Sefolosha	-1.9	-1.9	-1.9		3.1	2.3	2.6	0.7
JaVale McGee	0.2	0.5	0.3		0.6	0.2	0.3	0.7
Clint Capela	0	-1.3	-0.5		1	1.3	1.2	0.7
Kelly Olynyk	0.1	-0.4	-0.1		0.5	0.9	0.8	0.7
Maurice Harkless	0	0.5	0.2		0.8	0.2	0.4	0.6
Tristan Thompson	0	-1.4	-0.6		1.4	1.1	1.2	0.6
Andre Roberson	-2.1	-1.3	-1.8		2.1	2.5	2.4	0.6
Victor Oladipo	-0.4	0.1	-0.2		-0.9	1.6	0.7	0.5
Malcolm Brogdon	0.7	2.1	1.2		-1.1	-0.6	-0.7	0.5
DeMar DeRozan	2.4	2.6	2.5		-1.5	-2.3	-2.0	0.5
Salah Mejri	-3.6	-2.7	-3.2		3.7	3.7	3.7	0.4
Khris Middleton	0	0.3	0.1		-0.6	0.8	0.3	0.4
Joakim Noah	-0.7	-2.2	-1.3		2.8	1.2	1.7	0.4
Al-Farouq Aminu	-2.3	-1.8	-2.1		1.2	3.2	2.5	0.4
Elfrid Payton	0.7	1.1	0.9		0.2	-0.8	-0.4	0.4
Nemanja Bjelica	-0.7	-0.7	-0.7		-0.4	1.9	1.1	0.4
Richaun Holmes	0.2	-0.3	0.0		1.5	-0.2	0.4	0.4
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	-2	-2.0	-2.0		2.2	2.5	2.4	0.4
Serge Ibaka	-0.5	-0.2	-0.4		0.1	1.1	0.8	0.4
Tim Hardaway	1.3	2.1	1.6		-1.5	-1.2	-1.3	0.3
CJ Miles	1.5	1.2	1.4		-2.1	-0.6	-1.1	0.3
Tony Allen	-1.8	-2.0	-1.9		2.4	2.0	2.1	0.2
Wesley Matthews	0.2	0.1	0.2		-0.1	0.2	0.1	0.2
Wayne Ellington	1.8	2.3	2.0		-2	-1.6	-1.8	0.2
Nick Young	2.6	2.3	2.5		-3.4	-1.6	-2.2	0.2
James Ennis	-1	-1.1	-1.1		1	1.4	1.3	0.2
Devin Harris	-0.1	0.4	0.1		-0.3	0.3	0.1	0.2
Markieff Morris	-1.3	-0.6	-1.0		0.2	1.7	1.2	0.2
Cole Aldrich	-2	-1.8	-1.9		2.6	1.8	2.1	0.2
JJ Redick	2	1.9	1.9		-2	-1.7	-1.8	0.1
JaMychal Green	-0.4	-0.7	-0.5		1	0.5	0.7	0.1
Eric Gordon	1	1.3	1.1		-2.4	-0.2	-1.0	0.1
Marcin Gortat	-0.9	-1.2	-1.0		1.2	1.2	1.2	0.1
Marcus Morris	-0.3	-0.1	-0.2		-0.2	0.6	0.3	0.1
Jusuf Nurkic	-2.4	-2.2	-2.3		2.1	2.5	2.4	0.0
Mike Muscala	-0.4	0.0	-0.3		1.4	-0.3	0.3	0.0
Trevor Booker	-1.6	-2.3	-1.9		1.8	2.0	1.9	0.0
Andre Drummond	-2.1	-1.8	-2.0		2.9	1.5	2.0	0.0
Marvin Williams	-0.2	0.0	-0.1		0.5	-0.1	0.1	0.0
Marcus Smart	-1.1	0.3	-0.5		0.8	0.4	0.5	0.0
Solomon Hill	-1.8	-1.1	-1.5		1.5	1.5	1.5	0.0
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0.9	0.7	0.8		0	-1.3	-0.9	0.0
Dwyane Wade	0.4	-0.3	0.1		0.6	-0.6	-0.2	-0.1
Jonas Valanciunas	-0.5	-0.8	-0.6		-0.1	0.9	0.6	-0.1
Montrezl Harrell	0.8	-0.4	0.3		0.2	-0.8	-0.4	-0.1
Dwight Powell	-0.4	-0.6	-0.5		1.9	-0.5	0.3	-0.2
Jabari Parker	1.6	0.8	1.3		-1.3	-1.5	-1.4	-0.2
Willy Hernangomez	-0.6	-0.8	-0.7		0.6	0.4	0.5	-0.2
Jon Leuer	-0.4	-1.4	-0.8		0.5	0.6	0.6	-0.2
Darrell Arthur	0.3	-0.9	-0.2		-0.6	0.2	-0.1	-0.3
Carmelo Anthony	1.5	1.9	1.6		-2.2	-1.8	-1.9	-0.3
Aaron Gordon	-0.2	1.2	0.4		-0.4	-0.8	-0.6	-0.3
Andrew Bogut	-5.6	-4.0	-5.0		5.3	4.3	4.7	-0.3
Ish Smith	-1.2	0.3	-0.6		0.4	0.3	0.3	-0.3
Jason Terry	-0.5	-0.4	-0.5		-0.6	0.6	0.2	-0.3
Terrence Ross	0.3	1.3	0.7		-0.6	-1.2	-1.0	-0.3
Will Barton	1.3	0.1	0.8		-1	-1.2	-1.1	-0.3
Luke Babbitt	-1	-0.6	-0.9		-0.8	1.2	0.5	-0.3
Garrett Temple	-0.3	-0.1	-0.2		0.6	-0.5	-0.1	-0.3
Dion Waiters	-0.1	0.1	0.0		-0.8	-0.1	-0.4	-0.4
Derrick Favors	-2.4	-3.0	-2.7		2.3	2.3	2.3	-0.4
Aron Baynes	-2.9	-2.5	-2.7		1.1	2.9	2.3	-0.4
Alan Williams	-1.8	-0.9	-1.5		0.1	1.5	1.0	-0.4
Kenneth Faried	0.9	-0.1	0.5		-0.1	-1.5	-1.0	-0.5
Justin Holiday	-0.3	-0.6	-0.4		-0.8	0.2	-0.1	-0.5
Joe Johnson	-0.1	0.8	0.3		-0.1	-1.2	-0.8	-0.6
Dirk Nowitzki	-1.6	-0.4	-1.1		0.3	0.7	0.5	-0.6
Cristiano Felicio	-0.6	-1.5	-1.0		0.5	0.3	0.4	-0.6
Kosta Koufos	-2.6	-2.8	-2.7		0.7	2.8	2.1	-0.6
Spencer Dinwiddie	-0.7	-0.8	-0.7		-0.2	0.3	0.1	-0.6
Courtney Lee	0.6	0.6	0.6		-0.7	-1.5	-1.2	-0.6
Rodney Hood	-0.3	-0.3	-0.3		-0.9	-0.1	-0.3	-0.6
Willie Reed	-1.3	-2.4	-1.7		0.8	1.3	1.1	-0.7
Jameer Nelson	0.4	0.5	0.4		-2.3	-0.4	-1.1	-0.7
Frank Kaminsky	-0.8	1.0	-0.1		-0.7	-0.5	-0.6	-0.7
JJ Barea	2	0.2	1.3		-2.6	-1.6	-1.9	-0.7
Roy Hibbert	-2.9	-2.5	-2.7		1.9	2.1	2.0	-0.7
Tarik Black	-1.8	-2.5	-2.1		0.2	2.0	1.3	-0.7
Tony Snell	0.2	0.0	0.1		-1.1	-0.8	-0.9	-0.8
Derrick Jones	-0.5	-1.1	-0.7		-0.5	0.2	-0.1	-0.8
Enes Kanter	0.6	0.6	0.6		-1.9	-1.1	-1.4	-0.8
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson	-2.9	-2.2	-2.6		1.9	1.8	1.8	-0.8
Jakob Poeltl	-1.2	-2.6	-1.8		0.6	1.2	1.0	-0.8
Josh Richardson	-1	-1.6	-1.2		1.1	0.1	0.4	-0.8
Anthony Tolliver	0.2	-0.1	0.1		-0.8	-1.0	-0.9	-0.8
Darren Collison	0.8	1.0	0.9		-2.3	-1.5	-1.8	-0.9
John Henson	-2.6	-3.4	-2.9		2.4	1.9	2.0	-0.9
Harrison Barnes	-0.7	-0.4	-0.6		-1.2	0.1	-0.3	-0.9
Tyus Jones	-0.4	0.1	-0.2		-1.5	-0.3	-0.7	-0.9
Matt Barnes	-1.2	-1.1	-1.1		0.6	0.0	0.2	-0.9
Ty Lawson	0.2	0.5	0.3		-1.5	-1.2	-1.3	-1.0
Dante Cunningham	-1.3	-0.4	-0.9		0.8	-0.6	-0.1	-1.0
Taj Gibson	-2.4	-2.0	-2.2		0.3	1.7	1.2	-1.0
Wilson Chandler	0.5	0.3	0.4		-1.3	-1.5	-1.5	-1.0
Tyreke Evans	-0.7	-1.5	-1.0		-0.1	0.0	0.0	-1.0
Evan Fournier	0.8	0.0	0.5		-2.2	-1.2	-1.5	-1.0
Beno Udrih	-0.5	-0.4	-0.5		-2.1	0.1	-0.6	-1.1
Robin Lopez	-1.9	-2.0	-2.0		1	0.8	0.9	-1.1
Jason Smith	-2	-0.8	-1.5		0.6	0.3	0.4	-1.1
Avery Bradley	-0.2	-0.4	-0.3		-0.3	-1.2	-0.9	-1.1
Rodney McGruder	-0.8	-0.6	-0.7		0.5	-0.9	-0.4	-1.1
DAngelo Russell	1.1	0.8	1.0		-1.5	-2.4	-2.1	-1.1
Willie Cauley-Stein	-2	-2.1	-2.0		0.9	0.9	0.9	-1.1
Thon Maker	-0.5	-1.1	-0.7		-1	-0.1	-0.4	-1.2
Luol Deng	-2.3	-1.9	-2.1		-0.2	1.5	0.9	-1.2
Julius Randle	-0.8	-0.8	-0.8		0.7	-1.0	-0.4	-1.2
Sam Dekker	-0.4	0.1	-0.2		-0.6	-1.3	-1.0	-1.2
Juan Hernangomez	-0.1	-0.8	-0.4		-1.2	-0.7	-0.9	-1.3
Caris LeVert	-0.7	-0.4	-0.6		-0.4	-0.8	-0.7	-1.3
Wesley Johnson	-3.4	-3.8	-3.5		1.6	2.6	2.3	-1.3
Zach LaVine	2.1	-0.6	1.0		-2.4	-2.4	-2.4	-1.4
Rajon Rondo	-1.3	-1.5	-1.4		1.6	-0.8	0.0	-1.4
Iman Shumpert	-1.3	-0.9	-1.2		0	-0.4	-0.2	-1.4
Deron Williams	0.2	0.3	0.2		-2.5	-1.2	-1.6	-1.4
Jonathon Simmons	-2.8	-2.2	-2.5		0.9	1.3	1.1	-1.4
Justin Hamilton	-0.9	-1.6	-1.2		0.2	-0.4	-0.2	-1.4
JR Smith	-0.5	-0.7	-0.6		-0.7	-1.0	-0.9	-1.4
Yogi Ferrell	-0.1	-1.0	-0.5		-0.7	-1.2	-1.0	-1.5
Kent Bazemore	-2	-0.8	-1.5		1.2	-0.6	0.0	-1.5
TJ Warren	0.2	0.3	0.2		-0.5	-2.5	-1.8	-1.5
Marco Belinelli	0.1	0.7	0.3		-2	-1.9	-1.9	-1.6
Norman Powell	-0.4	-0.2	-0.3		-1.2	-1.3	-1.3	-1.6
Dennis Schroder	0.7	0.3	0.5		-1.4	-2.5	-2.1	-1.6
TJ McConnell	-2.1	-1.3	-1.8		0	0.3	0.2	-1.6
Jeremy Lamb	-0.8	0.1	-0.5		-0.9	-1.3	-1.2	-1.6
Brandon Bass	0.1	-1.0	-0.3		-0.8	-1.6	-1.3	-1.7
Jonas Jerebko	-2.3	-1.0	-1.8		0.4	-0.1	0.1	-1.7
Glenn Robinson	-1.2	-1.3	-1.2		-0.2	-0.6	-0.5	-1.7
Austin Rivers	-0.1	0.0	-0.1		-1.5	-1.8	-1.7	-1.8
Corey Brewer	-2.9	-1.8	-2.4		0.2	0.9	0.7	-1.8
Spencer Hawes	-1.2	-2.1	-1.6		0.8	-0.8	-0.2	-1.8
ETwaun Moore	-0.8	-0.2	-0.6		-0.5	-1.6	-1.2	-1.8
Jodie Meeks	-0.4	0.0	-0.3		-1.4	-1.6	-1.5	-1.8
Cory Joseph	-0.4	-0.3	-0.4		-0.4	-2.0	-1.4	-1.8
Raymond Felton	-1.8	-1.6	-1.7		0.9	-0.7	-0.1	-1.8
Shabazz Napier	-0.9	-0.3	-0.6		-1.3	-1.1	-1.2	-1.8
Andrew Harrison	-2.4	-1.3	-1.9		0	0.2	0.1	-1.8
Richard Jefferson	-1.3	-1.2	-1.2		-1	-0.4	-0.6	-1.8
Devin Booker	0.4	1.3	0.7		-2.7	-2.5	-2.6	-1.8
Zach Randolph	-1.4	-0.2	-0.9		-0.7	-1.1	-0.9	-1.9
Mike Dunleavy	-1	-2.2	-1.5		-1.1	0.0	-0.4	-1.9
Kelly Oubre	-1.8	-1.5	-1.7		-0.5	0.0	-0.2	-1.9
Taurean Prince	-3.9	-3.8	-3.9		1.5	2.2	2.0	-1.9
Jamal Murray	-0.4	0.1	-0.2		-2	-1.6	-1.7	-1.9
Kyle Korver	0.8	-0.3	0.4		-1.1	-3.0	-2.3	-1.9
Alex Len	-3	-3.6	-3.3		1.2	1.3	1.3	-2.0
Allen Crabbe	0.3	0.1	0.2		-1.4	-2.7	-2.2	-2.0
Tomas Satoransky	-2.9	-2.1	-2.6		-0.2	1.0	0.6	-2.0
Brandon Jennings	-0.8	0.4	-0.3		-2.2	-1.4	-1.7	-2.0
Mindaugas Kuzminskas	-0.1	-0.8	-0.4		-2.5	-1.2	-1.7	-2.0
Meyers Leonard	-2.1	-1.5	-1.9		-1.3	0.4	-0.2	-2.1
Lavoy Allen	-1.5	-2.6	-1.9		1.3	-1.0	-0.2	-2.1
Tyler Zeller	-3.2	-2.5	-2.9		0.8	0.8	0.8	-2.1
Derrick Rose	0.2	0.1	0.2		-2.2	-2.3	-2.3	-2.1
Al Jefferson	-1.5	-1.0	-1.3		-1.5	-0.5	-0.9	-2.2
Skal Labissiere	-1.7	-1.9	-1.8		-1	0.0	-0.4	-2.2
Langston Galloway	-0.9	0.1	-0.5		-1.7	-1.7	-1.7	-2.2
Dorian Finney-Smith	-2.8	-1.9	-2.4		1.3	-0.3	0.3	-2.2
Terrence Jones	-2.7	-1.4	-2.2		1.3	-0.7	0.0	-2.2
Dario Saric	-2	-1.3	-1.7		-0.2	-0.6	-0.5	-2.2
Terry Rozier	-2.5	-1.5	-2.1		0	-0.2	-0.1	-2.2
Michael Carter-Williams	-4.1	-2.7	-3.5		1.7	1.2	1.3	-2.2
Tony Parker	-1.2	-0.8	-1.0		-1.7	-0.9	-1.2	-2.2
Alex Abrines	-0.3	0.2	-0.1		-2.3	-2.0	-2.1	-2.2
Kris Humphries	-3	-2.3	-2.7		0.3	0.5	0.4	-2.3
Andrew Wiggins	0.2	1.6	0.7		-2.9	-3.2	-3.1	-2.3
DeAndre Liggins	-3.9	-3.0	-3.5		1.8	0.9	1.2	-2.4
Shaun Livingston	-2.5	-2.8	-2.6		0.5	0.0	0.2	-2.4
Thomas Robinson	-2.2	-1.7	-2.0		-0.1	-0.7	-0.5	-2.5
Denzel Valentine	-2.4	-2.2	-2.3		-0.4	0.0	-0.2	-2.5
Pascal Siakam	-3	-4.1	-3.4		1.8	0.5	0.9	-2.5
Mirza Teletovic	-1.5	-1.1	-1.3		-3.4	0.0	-1.2	-2.5
Ed Davis	-2.2	-3.0	-2.5		0.2	-0.1	0.0	-2.5
Troy Daniels	0.3	-0.1	0.1		-3.5	-2.2	-2.6	-2.5
Tim Frazier	-1.5	-0.7	-1.2		-0.7	-1.7	-1.3	-2.5
Reggie Jackson	0.6	-0.6	0.1		-2.1	-3.0	-2.7	-2.5
Shelvin Mack	-1.7	-1.6	-1.6		0	-1.4	-0.9	-2.6
Omri Casspi	-2.4	-2.4	-2.4		-0.6	0.1	-0.2	-2.6
Bobby Portis	-1.6	-1.9	-1.7		-1.5	-0.5	-0.9	-2.6
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot	-2.7	-2.3	-2.5		-1.2	0.6	-0.1	-2.6
Quincy Acy	-1.8	-2.4	-2.0		-1.2	-0.2	-0.6	-2.6
Ian Clark	-0.6	-0.9	-0.7		-1.4	-2.1	-1.9	-2.6
Stanley Johnson	-3.8	-2.3	-3.2		1.8	-0.1	0.6	-2.6
Michael Beasley	-1.7	-1.6	-1.7		-1.1	-0.9	-1.0	-2.6
Dante Exum	-2	-2.3	-2.1		-0.5	-0.6	-0.5	-2.6
Bismack Biyombo	-4.2	-3.3	-3.9		2	0.8	1.2	-2.7
Evan Turner	-2.5	-2.9	-2.6		-0.1	-0.2	-0.2	-2.8
Nik Stauskas	-1.7	-0.3	-1.1		-0.7	-2.2	-1.7	-2.8
Ivica Zubac	-2.7	-3.0	-2.8		0.3	-0.3	-0.1	-2.9
Alexis Ajinca	-5.1	-3.2	-4.3		1	1.6	1.4	-2.9
Marquese Chriss	-1.6	-2.0	-1.7		0	-1.8	-1.2	-2.9
Noah Vonleh	-3.5	-4.1	-3.7		-0.3	1.4	0.8	-2.9
Sean Kilpatrick	-1.2	-0.1	-0.8		-1.8	-2.4	-2.2	-2.9
Brandon Rush	-2	-3.1	-2.5		-0.1	-0.7	-0.5	-3.0
Trey Lyles	-2.9	-2.5	-2.7		-0.1	-0.3	-0.2	-3.0
Nicolas Brussino	-1.7	-2.4	-2.0		0.6	-1.8	-1.0	-3.0
Timofey Mozgov	-2.8	-4.0	-3.3		-0.8	0.9	0.3	-3.0
Anthony Morrow	-1.2	-0.7	-1.0		-3.1	-1.4	-2.0	-3.0
Hollis Thompson	-2.8	-0.8	-2.0		-0.5	-1.2	-1.0	-3.0
Monta Ellis	-2.5	-1.4	-2.1		0.2	-1.6	-0.9	-3.0
Kris Dunn	-3.7	-2.6	-3.3		1.5	-0.4	0.3	-3.0
Justin Anderson	-1.2	-1.3	-1.3		-0.3	-2.5	-1.8	-3.0
Buddy Hield	-0.9	-0.9	-0.9		-1.8	-2.3	-2.1	-3.0
Joffrey Lauvergne	-2.3	-1.2	-1.9		-0.9	-1.4	-1.2	-3.1
Tyler Ennis	-2.1	-1.4	-1.8		-2.7	-0.5	-1.3	-3.1
Domantas Sabonis	-4.7	-3.9	-4.4		-0.1	1.9	1.2	-3.2
Bojan Bogdanovic	-0.1	-0.3	-0.2		-2.8	-3.2	-3.1	-3.2
Matthew Dellavedova	-1.9	-0.8	-1.4		-2.8	-1.3	-1.8	-3.3
CJ Watson	-2.5	-2.4	-2.5		-1.1	-0.7	-0.8	-3.3
Troy Williams	-3.3	-3.0	-3.2		0.7	-0.6	-0.1	-3.3
KJ McDaniels	-3.5	-1.5	-2.7		-0.6	-0.7	-0.6	-3.4
Paul Zipser	-3.6	-3.4	-3.5		-0.1	0.2	0.1	-3.4
Gerald Green	-1.9	-1.2	-1.6		-2.7	-1.3	-1.8	-3.4
Sergio Rodriguez	-1.6	-0.7	-1.2		-2.4	-2.1	-2.2	-3.4
Boris Diaw	-2.7	-2.8	-2.7		-0.2	-1.0	-0.7	-3.4
Jaylen Brown	-3.1	-2.9	-3.0		-0.9	-0.2	-0.4	-3.5
Justise Winslow	-4	-4.1	-4.0		1.3	0.2	0.6	-3.5
Jamal Crawford	-1	-0.3	-0.7		-2.1	-3.2	-2.8	-3.5
Leandro Barbosa	-2	-1.5	-1.8		-2.1	-1.5	-1.7	-3.5
Patrick McCaw	-1.6	-3.1	-2.2		-0.1	-2.0	-1.3	-3.5
Joe Harris	-1.5	-2.5	-1.9		-1.5	-1.7	-1.6	-3.5
Jerami Grant	-3	-2.3	-2.7		0.9	-1.8	-0.8	-3.6
Jordan Clarkson	-0.5	-0.6	-0.5		-2.3	-3.4	-3.0	-3.6
Isaiah Canaan	-2.3	-2.8	-2.5		-1.2	-1.1	-1.1	-3.6
Jose Calderon	-2.9	-2.4	-2.7		-1.8	-0.4	-0.9	-3.6
Gerald Henderson	-1.8	-1.5	-1.7		-1.2	-2.4	-2.0	-3.7
Aaron Brooks	-2	-1.9	-1.9		-2.5	-1.4	-1.8	-3.7
Derrick Williams	-2.4	-2.7	-2.5		-1.8	-0.9	-1.2	-3.7
Kevin Seraphin	-3.1	-2.9	-3.0		-0.6	-0.8	-0.7	-3.8
Ron Baker	-3.5	-2.7	-3.2		-0.9	-0.6	-0.7	-3.8
Ramon Sessions	-2.4	-1.6	-2.1		-2.4	-1.4	-1.8	-3.9
Alec Burks	-3.3	-2.5	-3.0		-0.9	-0.9	-0.9	-3.9
Shabazz Muhammad	-0.2	-0.6	-0.3		-4.3	-3.2	-3.6	-3.9
Emmanuel Mudiay	-2	-1.5	-1.8		-1.7	-2.4	-2.1	-3.9
Chandler Parsons	-3.6	-3.5	-3.6		-0.5	-0.4	-0.4	-4.0
Arron Afflalo	-1.4	-1.4	-1.4		-2	-2.9	-2.6	-4.0
Jeff Green	-2.8	-2.0	-2.5		-1.8	-1.3	-1.5	-4.0
Tyler Ulis	-1.5	-2.0	-1.7		-2.5	-2.2	-2.3	-4.0
Lance Thomas	-2.1	-2.9	-2.4		-1.6	-1.8	-1.7	-4.1
Randy Foye	-3	-2.7	-2.9		-1	-1.4	-1.3	-4.2
Dragan Bender	-4	-3.2	-3.7		-0.3	-0.7	-0.5	-4.2
Doug McDermott	-1.2	-0.7	-1.0		-2.3	-3.9	-3.3	-4.3
Rodney Stuckey	-3.8	-1.7	-2.9		-2.2	-0.9	-1.4	-4.3
Isaiah Whitehead	-4.3	-2.0	-3.4		-0.6	-1.2	-1.0	-4.3
Malcolm Delaney	-4.6	-2.7	-3.8		-1.2	-0.2	-0.5	-4.4
Marcus Thornton	-1.7	-1.6	-1.7		-1.6	-3.3	-2.7	-4.4
Ben McLemore	-2.1	-2.9	-2.4		-2.7	-1.6	-2.0	-4.4
DJ Augustin	-0.9	-1.5	-1.2		-3.3	-3.4	-3.4	-4.5
Jahlil Okafor	-3.3	-4.4	-3.8		0.1	-1.3	-0.8	-4.5
Jarell Martin	-5.8	-4.3	-5.2		-0.6	1.2	0.5	-4.7
Brandon Knight	-1.5	-2.3	-1.8		-3	-3.0	-3.0	-4.8
Brandon Ingram	-3.2	-1.8	-2.6		-0.8	-3.0	-2.2	-4.8
Trey Burke	-2.2	-2.2	-2.2		-3.5	-3.2	-3.3	-5.5
Semaj Christon	-5	-3.7	-4.5		-1.2	-1.7	-1.5	-6.0
Mario Hezonja	-4.8	-4.4	-4.6		-1	-2.2	-1.8	-6.4

I don't know how to get the formatting to behave perfectly.

Crow
Posts: 6188
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: BPM - RPM Blend

Post by Crow » Thu Jun 29, 2017 12:29 pm


shadow
Posts: 217
Joined: Fri May 29, 2015 3:38 am

Re: BPM - RPM Blend

Post by shadow » Thu Jun 29, 2017 7:57 pm

538 says they're moving to a 2/3 RPM, 1/3 BPM blend for 2017-18 per https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wh ... r-2017-18/

Crow
Posts: 6188
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: BPM - RPM Blend

Post by Crow » Thu Jun 29, 2017 8:12 pm

Big reversal. Almost identical to what I did above on defensive side. Offense is different but I can live with their choice.

shadow
Posts: 217
Joined: Fri May 29, 2015 3:38 am

Re: BPM - RPM Blend

Post by shadow » Thu Jun 29, 2017 8:44 pm

FWIW, I do think Dan had a good point. I asked J.E. a little while ago how much weight he thought the box score prior has in RPM by the end of the season for a typical player and he estimated it to be around 50%, which implies the RAPM portion would also be around 50%. I believe the exact amount would vary by each player because the amount of weight the prior has depends on how many possessions they've played.

That means if you are using a blend of 2/3 RPM and 1/3 BPM and the typical player's RPM makeup is approximately 50% RAPM and 50% box score prior, then the real breakdown of that blend would be roughly 2/3 Box Score (BPM & box score prior) and 1/3 RAPM.

Granted it was just one season's worth of projections, but given that 538's BPM only projections performed much worse than their previous iteration, I don't think giving approximately 2/3 weight to box score data and only 1/3 weight to RAPM is necessarily the right way to go. I think this especially holds true for defense since box score info is very lacking and often misleading when measuring impact on that end (i.e. chasing blocks at the expense of good positioning or constantly gambling for steals). Of course the only way to really test this would be to retrodict past seasons and see how well the individual metrics and various blends do at predicting team point differential using Y-1 metrics. If I find time to do this at some point I'll share the results.

Crow
Posts: 6188
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: BPM - RPM Blend

Post by Crow » Thu Jun 29, 2017 8:58 pm

Those are important observations.

2/3rds effectively BPM and just 1/3rd RAPM is not that far off Dan Rosenbaum's initial blend. It is modestly more RAPM and probably justified given the improvement of RAPM over APM.

There is rationale to test several or many blends as projections and as retrodictions.

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