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Re: The race for the 2020 NBA title

Posted: Fri Jun 16, 2017 4:33 pm
by sndesai1
JoshEngleman wrote:
sndesai1 wrote:don't have anything to add about 2020, but but most places seem to have the warriors at -180 to -220 for next season so somewhere in the 60-65% range
You can't just use the raw line, as these futures have a ton of juice built in. Here's the table based on 5Dimes.

Image
agreed that raw implied probability isn't correct - i put a range that assumes ~3-4% of vig taken out from the raw line of 64.3%-68.8%

i haven't found that dividing by the total implied probability like in that image really works for futures

whenever there's a full futures market and a "will team x win championship" market for the top few teams, the lines are not that different, e.g. the first bet will be -178 while the standalone is something like -180 / +150 for yes / no

Re: The race for the 2020 NBA title

Posted: Fri Jun 16, 2017 4:40 pm
by jgoldstein34
Figured I'd add some numbers into this discussion using player projections for the 2019-20 season. These are who my model pegs as adding the most wins for that year:

1- Anthony Davis (19.2)
2- Nikola Jokic (17.9)
3- Karl-Anthony Towns (17.4)
4- Kawhi Leonard (16.7)
5- Stephen Curry (16.2)
6- Giannis Antetokounmpo (16.1)
7- James Harden (15.5)
8- Kevin Durant (14.8)
9- Chris Paul (13.7)
10- Myles Turner (12.7)

Obviously, these guys need to be on good teams, but generally these are the guys that will be leading the contenders. Warriors have to still be heavy favorite with 2 top 10 players, but they'll be beatable.

Re: The race for the 2020 NBA title

Posted: Fri Jun 16, 2017 4:49 pm
by sndesai1
thanks for sharing.

i'm curious where you have lebron at?
if he's projected significantly worse than cp3, do you have an idea why?

Re: The race for the 2020 NBA title

Posted: Fri Jun 16, 2017 5:46 pm
by jgoldstein34
LeBron is 12th at 11.6

He doesn't do quite as well as Chris Paul because most of his comps, which my system projects off of, had pretty sharp declines in early-mid 30's (Clyde Drexler, Julius Erving, Dominique Wilkins, Charles Barkley) and the generic aging curve I apply doesn't do enough to stave off that decline in his projection. Generally, guys without great jump shots fall off sooner as their athleticism goes, LeBron is an alien though so we'll see how long he can hold on.

Re: The race for the 2020 NBA title

Posted: Fri Jun 16, 2017 6:52 pm
by Nathan
Players who were about as good as Nikola Jokic at about the same age (within a year) or younger, according to BPM:

LeBron: +9.3, ~10 months younger
Magic: +9.2, ~6 months younger
Paul: +9.2, ~9 months older
LeBron: +8.3, ~22 months younger
Magic: +8.3, ~6 months older
Jokic: +8.3
Jordan: +8.2, same age
Barkley: +7.9, ~12 months older
Antetokounmpo: +7.6, ~2 months older
LeBron: +7.4, ~2 months older
Davis: +7.1, ~1 month younger

BPM taken by itself can be dodgy, of course, but other mainstream stats also support the idea that he's a future MVP. He ranked 4th in the RAPM posted by shadow a few days ago, 9th in WS/48, 6th in RPM, and 6th in BPM. The only other players who rank in the top 10 across these stats are Curry, Paul, and Leonard (LeBron and Durant are near misses, ranking 11th in WS/48 and 11th in RPM respectively). These, of course, are all elite players currently in their primes, while Jokic just recently turned 22.

Davis, Antetokounmpo, and Towns, in contrast, occasionally appear in the top 10 of boxscore-only stats, but rank just 17th/18th/51st in RPM (which includes some +/- information) and 35th/72nd/149th in RAPM (+/- information only). Davis of course is a couple years older than the rest of these guys to boot.

I would argue that the main reason he's not talked about more is that he doesn't "look" like an MVP to a lot of people. Personally, I fell for this trap a few years ago with Curry. He wasn't an above-the-rim finisher, and he was a mediocre passer for his position, both of which I took to be huge red flags that put a ceiling on his potential. In retrospect of course this is silly, and a look at the list of MVP winners shows why: MVPs are all amazingly different from one another! Almost every new MVP is a breed of his own, completely unlike any previous MVP. With that in mind, I see no reason to hedge on Jokic; he has as good a shot as anyone at being MVP in 2020.

Re: The race for the 2020 NBA title

Posted: Fri Jun 16, 2017 8:33 pm
by Crow
JGold's rankings match real close with my tentative 3 plus 3 list.

Nobody has blown up about my leaving Westbrook and Harden off, yet. Could be different reasons and might still happen.

Re: The race for the 2020 NBA title

Posted: Fri Jun 16, 2017 9:16 pm
by jgoldstein34
Eventually people will realize that Jokic is, if not the absolute best young player in the league, surely a top 2-3 choice. He's awesome, great passer and shooter. Lots of questions about his defense though, despite RPM, BPM and my own metric thinking he's not as bad as it seems.

For Westbrook, he ranks 14th in projected wins added (10.8) in 2019-20. Not sure the team will be good enough around him by then without Oladipo or Adams (both ~3 wins each) taking a major step to becoming a real star, even a CJ McCollum level star.

Harden projects to still be a top 10 player, but I don't really believe much in the Rockets. They had a lot of guys this past season that had career best or close to best seasons and very good health. Not sure they can expect to improve without someone like Sam Dekker or Montrezl Harrell becoming regular starters, and decent ones at that.

Re: The race for the 2020 NBA title

Posted: Fri Jun 16, 2017 10:29 pm
by shadow
I ran 2016-17 RAPM for the entire season with off/def splits and while Jokic comes in 6th overall, he's not rated nearly as high in DRAPM (+0.8 / 105th ) as he is in DRPM (+2.29 / 34th ). Probably has to do with his height and boxscore prior helping him out a lot in DRPM since he has a good DBPM (+2.22 / 34th among players w/ > 1000 MP).

Re: The race for the 2020 NBA title

Posted: Fri Jun 16, 2017 10:51 pm
by jgoldstein34
Agreed Shadow. My model, which sort of combines On/Off data with something similar to BPM, has him just +0.82 on defense, 11th overall for the season. And I still think that overrates him on defense, he's genuinely bad at it. I think he does decently because he's still a good defensive rebounder (27.2% last year). Regardless, he easily should be the future of the NBA, not sure how long it'll take for conventional media to catch on.

Re: The race for the 2020 NBA title

Posted: Fri Jun 16, 2017 11:02 pm
by EvanZ
jgoldstein34 wrote:Eventually people will realize that Jokic is, if not the absolute best young player in the league, surely a top 2-3 choice. He's awesome, great passer and shooter. Lots of questions about his defense though, despite RPM, BPM and my own metric thinking he's not as bad as it seems.

For Westbrook, he ranks 14th in projected wins added (10.8) in 2019-20. Not sure the team will be good enough around him by then without Oladipo or Adams (both ~3 wins each) taking a major step to becoming a real star, even a CJ McCollum level star.

Harden projects to still be a top 10 player, but I don't really believe much in the Rockets. They had a lot of guys this past season that had career best or close to best seasons and very good health. Not sure they can expect to improve without someone like Sam Dekker or Montrezl Harrell becoming regular starters, and decent ones at that.
Jokic is great, but who do you play next to him if you don't have Draymond Green on your team?

Jokic is absolutely one of those guys who is great in the regular season, but will be very hard to be a winner in the playoffs.

Re: The race for the 2020 NBA title

Posted: Sat Jun 17, 2017 12:28 am
by Crow
Anybody have a link to a summary about Nugget's design model or have one of their own? I haven't really paid much attention to them but might start.

Re: The race for the 2020 NBA title

Posted: Sat Jun 17, 2017 8:15 am
by Crow
The Bucks...

I assume ownership is excited about many of their players & future...
but it appears the recently departed GM had lost support...
and the Ast. GM, described in media as GM in waiting and not to my knowledge challenged as that until recently, apparently didn't have enough support...
and a GM search ends with a middle manager from the old regime...

Now I admit to not knowing more than these tidbits, but does this sound like footsteps of a future contender / titlewinner? The process can be messy and work, but I wonder... Will management from here capitalize effectively on the current base, will it be meh or underachieve?

Re: The race for the 2020 NBA title

Posted: Sat Jun 17, 2017 5:58 pm
by jgoldstein34
Yeah the Bucks recent GM search, when they already had a well respected GM-in-waiting, is quite alarming. Says a lot about their ownership group. It has me a bit more uneasy when it comes to trusting them going forward.

Also what do you mean for the Nuggets? As in their team design?

Re: The race for the 2020 NBA title

Posted: Sat Jun 17, 2017 7:59 pm
by Crow
Team design:

Pace
Shot orientation (3pt, inside, FT, mid range, fastbreak, pick n roll, spot up, iso, etc.)
Defensive scheme (gambling vs. solid, dent the,3 vs. pack paint)
Win with.... starters, bench, both?
Star contingient: 3 or more, 2, 1, none?
Highly independent coach, strongly collobrative or highly directed by management?
time horizon: all in; mostly in but patient, rising; higher priority on imeddiate, higher priority on long-term.
Etc.

Re: The race for the 2020 NBA title

Posted: Sun Jun 18, 2017 5:31 am
by Crow
Design has the layers above but I guess the basic design now is run it thru Jokic and get either an inside bucket / foul, an open outside shot or a pass to a cutter. They are better on offensive efficiency than I realized, far better than Milwaukee or New Orleans.

Malone got positive results on 34% of his 588 lineups. Not terrible. But only 3 lineups used over 1 minute per game for season, only ten over 30 seconds per game and none over 3 minutes? And no lineup uses over 20 games? That drives me nuts. Too much coaching intervention, not enough results to justify it. Maybe you could do that this season but that is not a lineup management design I would support going forward.