Way-too-early 2017-18 Forecasts

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shadow
Posts: 217
Joined: Fri May 29, 2015 3:38 am

Re: Way-too-early 2017-18 Forecasts

Post by shadow » Wed Jul 19, 2017 8:04 pm

Here's the RMSE at the team level across all sims. The overall average for all teams was 4.95.

Code: Select all

ATL	5.99
BOS	6.87
BRK	6.20
CHA	6.99
CHI	4.45
CLE	4.66
DAL	4.34
DEN	4.83
DET	4.45
GSW	3.35
HOU	4.05
IND	4.51
LAC	4.19
LAL	4.20
MEM	4.33
MIA	5.18
MIL	4.56
MIN	8.47
NOP	4.63
NYK	4.28
OKC	5.88
ORL	5.58
PHI	4.20
PHX	5.21
POR	4.42
SAC	4.21
SAS	4.73
TOR	4.23
UTA	4.12
WAS	5.42

Nathan
Posts: 137
Joined: Sat Jun 22, 2013 4:30 pm

Re: Way-too-early 2017-18 Forecasts

Post by Nathan » Wed Aug 23, 2017 3:46 am

Celtics championship odds rose and Cavs championship odds fell in the wake of the trade.

On a scale of 1 to total solar eclipse, how in the dark are people about Crowder? :lol:

Rd11490
Posts: 114
Joined: Mon Sep 29, 2014 4:54 am

Re: Way-too-early 2017-18 Forecasts

Post by Rd11490 » Wed Aug 23, 2017 12:30 pm

The commom man perspective on Jae Crowder is that he constantly takes terrible contested threes that he can't make, he actively hurts the celtics, and he hates the celtics fan base. The common fan is stupid.

Mike G
Posts: 4424
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: Way-too-early 2017-18 Forecasts

Post by Mike G » Wed Aug 23, 2017 12:34 pm

Crowder is average to slightly above?
He's a weaker rebounder than Channing Frye, no better as a scorer but a bit better passer.
I guess he's more credibly a backup to LeBron, and lots better than R Jefferson.

caliban
Posts: 29
Joined: Mon Oct 26, 2015 8:48 am
Contact:

Re: Way-too-early 2017-18 Forecasts

Post by caliban » Wed Aug 23, 2017 5:53 pm

BOS down 6 in my model. The Brown Tatum duo better show up.

Crow
Posts: 6188
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Way-too-early 2017-18 Forecasts

Post by Crow » Wed Aug 23, 2017 7:33 pm

Crowder is outstanding on RPM estimate and not just a one year fluke. But RPM is probably better at assessing impact on team than impact rank in league or in abstract or on another team, though it tries.

As part of my campaign to maximize the number of views adjusted plus minus technique can give, I call for a RAPM split into 3 pieces for player time spent in lineups where the other 4 are plus 2 & above cumulatively on RPM, 2 to -2 and below -2. RPM knows that context matters, so let's see player impacts in those 3 contexts.

shadow
Posts: 217
Joined: Fri May 29, 2015 3:38 am

Re: Way-too-early 2017-18 Forecasts

Post by shadow » Wed Aug 30, 2017 2:00 am

Westgate has released over/unders. Congrats to whoever manages to get the first max bet down on Boston under 56.5.

http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/20 ... -under-675

Code: Select all

GSW	67.5
BOS	56.5
HOU	55.5
SAS	54.5
CLE	53.5
OKC	51.5
TOR	48.5
MIN	48.5
MIL	47.5
WAS	47.5
DEN	45.5
MIA	43.5
LAC	43.5
PHI	42.5
CHA	42.5
POR	42.5
UTA	40.5
NOP	39.5
DET	38.5
MEM	37.5
DAL	35.5
ORL	33.5
LAL	33.5
IND	31.5
NYK	30.5
BRK	28.5
SAC	28.5
PHX	28.5
ATL	25.5
CHI	21.5
Kevin Pelton looked at which teams differed the most from his RPM projections posted earlier this year:

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/2049 ... vin-pelton

bondom343
Posts: 96
Joined: Wed May 14, 2014 7:37 pm

Re: Way-too-early 2017-18 Forecasts

Post by bondom343 » Wed Aug 30, 2017 4:48 am

That Boston line is so strange, I don't think I've seen a single person who thinks it's over. I get the east is weak but that's too high. Same for Philly.

Crow
Posts: 6188
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Way-too-early 2017-18 Forecasts

Post by Crow » Wed Aug 30, 2017 5:21 am

I dunno their logic, but a few whack lines gets people talking and could quickly be adjusted.

shadow
Posts: 217
Joined: Fri May 29, 2015 3:38 am

Re: Way-too-early 2017-18 Forecasts

Post by shadow » Wed Aug 30, 2017 2:09 pm

I'm pretty sure the max bets at Westgate on these are only $1K and it wouldn't take more than a few max bets on the under to move the line down a couple wins. So there's not a massive amount of liability in posting a slightly off-market opener in this case.

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