2017-18 team win projection contest

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knarsu3
Posts: 103
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:25 pm

Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest

Post by knarsu3 » Sat Oct 14, 2017 6:25 pm

Are we allowed to have multiple win projections? I have 5 that I'm developing:
1) that uses my own PM metric that I'm developing
2) an multiyear RPM-PTPM (Player Tracking Plus-Minus) blend
3) multiyear RPM
4) an adjusted multiyear RPM that weights offense more heavily
5) an adjusted multiyear RPM-PTPM blend that weighs offense more heavily

mtpowell22
Posts: 7
Joined: Tue Oct 03, 2017 4:45 am

Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest

Post by mtpowell22 » Sat Oct 14, 2017 6:28 pm

Hey guys!

I spoke with DSMok1 about a web applications that I’ve just finished up the first version of: http://www.wintotals.com that lets users compete in predicting the records of each team for the 2017-2018 season. If you guys want to store your projections there for this competition it could serve as an automated approach to scoring and you can keep up with your projections versus other entries during the season. As you'll see it's a work in progress but I plan to release in-season projections for each person's entry based on current team records (sometime in November - basically a standings page).

To join the APBRmetrics contest input code: c4493d41 in the "Leagues" page after you "Join A League".

Scoring:
I plan to calculate scores by summing the win differences for each team, so the contest champion is the entry with a score closest to 0. I've seen you guys talk about other scoring approaches so open to discussing those.

Also, any feedback or ideas on how to make this more fun are more than welcome.

Miles

jgoldstein34
Posts: 240
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2016 6:38 pm

Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest

Post by jgoldstein34 » Sun Oct 15, 2017 6:54 pm

knarsu3 wrote:Are we allowed to have multiple win projections? I have 5 that I'm developing:
1) that uses my own PM metric that I'm developing
2) an multiyear RPM-PTPM (Player Tracking Plus-Minus) blend
3) multiyear RPM
4) an adjusted multiyear RPM that weights offense more heavily
5) an adjusted multiyear RPM-PTPM blend that weighs offense more heavily
I see no reason you can't submit multiple as long as you only pick one to count for "winning" the contest.

jgoldstein34
Posts: 240
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2016 6:38 pm

Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest

Post by jgoldstein34 » Sun Oct 15, 2017 7:09 pm

I think these are my final projections

Code: Select all

ATL	25.6
BOS	48.6
BRK	28.8
CHI	27.4
CHO	45.9
CLE	51.2
DAL	29.1
DEN	47.0
DET	41.4
GSW	65.0
HOU	58.1
IND	28.1
LAC	46.7
LAL	28.9
MEM	37.5
MIA	38.4
MIL	48.0
MIN	47.6
NOP	38.2
NYK	34.1
OKC	56.4
ORL	33.9
PHI	38.3
PHO	31.4
POR	42.1
SAC	20.9
SAS	53.0
TOR	49.2
UTA	41.5
WAS	47.6

shadow
Posts: 217
Joined: Fri May 29, 2015 3:38 am

Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest

Post by shadow » Mon Oct 16, 2017 5:45 pm

Here are 538's projections via https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... edictions/

Code: Select all

ATL	26
BOS	47
BRK	29
CHA	46
CHI	27
CLE	56
DAL	30
DEN	49
DET	35
GSW	63
HOU	57
IND	32
LAC	46
LAL	32
MEM	35
MIA	40
MIL	44
MIN	50
NOP	43
NYK	30
OKC	54
ORL	37
PHI	40
PHX	31
POR	41
SAC	24
SAS	50
TOR	45
UTA	46
WAS	46

RyanRiot
Posts: 23
Joined: Wed Oct 19, 2016 2:26 am

Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest

Post by RyanRiot » Mon Oct 16, 2017 5:50 pm

Here's mine. Went with 60% RPM/BPM blend, 30% implied Vegas totals, and 10% last year Pythagorean wins. Probably too high on those last two, but I thought it might be aluable to get some volatility in there.

Code: Select all

ATL	28.8
BKN	30.3
BOS	46.6
CHA	44.4
CHI	28.2
CLE	53.2
DAL	32.5
DEN	45.9
DET	36.6
GSW	66.2
HOU	56.6
IND	32.8
LAC	48.2
LAL	29
MEM	36.2
MIA	42.2
MIL	45.3
MIN	47.5
NOP	41
NYK	31.2
OKC	50.3
ORL	32.9
PHI	35.8
PHX	28
POR	41.4
SAC	26.5
SAS	54.3
TOR	47.4
UTA	43
WAS	47.8

AJbaskets
Posts: 11
Joined: Mon Feb 03, 2014 10:17 am

Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest

Post by AJbaskets » Mon Oct 16, 2017 6:33 pm

Here are my final Richard Jefferson bombshell included projections. Made with a blend of PT-PM and RAPM:

ATL 34.6
BKN 28.1
BOS 49.2
CHA 46.3
CHI 30.6
CLE 53.4
DAL 32.3
DEN 43.1
DET 34.7
GSW 69.0
HOU 55.4
IND 36.5
LAC 53.5
LAL 27.2
MEM 35.4
MIA 42.8
MIL 42.0
MIN 47.1
NOP 41.1
NYK 32.8
OKC 45.6
ORL 33.6
PHI 35.1
PHX 25.8
POR 40.0
SAC 25.2
SAS 53.0
TOR 46.6
UTA 41.5
WAS 48.7

sbs
Posts: 14
Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2012 7:25 am

Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest

Post by sbs » Mon Oct 16, 2017 11:56 pm

Here are mine:
GSW 66.3
HOU 56.4
CLE 54.3
SAS 53.7
OKC 51.9
BOS 49.5
MIN 48.5
WAS 47.5
TOR 47.2
MIL 46.6
LAC 45.7
DEN 45.5
CHH 44.9
MIA 43.1
POR 41.5
NOP 41.3
UTA 40.9
DET 37.1
MEM 37.1
PHI 36.0
DAL 33.8
ORL 33.4
IND 31.9
LAL 30.5
NYK 30.1
BKN 28.1
PHX 28.0
ATL 27.5
CHI 25.9
SAC 25.9

sndesai1
Posts: 133
Joined: Fri Mar 08, 2013 10:00 pm

Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest

Post by sndesai1 » Tue Oct 17, 2017 12:46 am

Code: Select all

ATL	25
BOS	47
BRK	33
CHA	42
CHI	21
CLE	54
DAL	31
DEN	46
DET	36
GSW	69
HOU	61
IND	33
LAC	47
LAL	30
MEM	35
MIA	40
MIL	46
MIN	50
NOP	40
NYK	31
OKC	54
ORL	33
PHI	38
PHO	29
POR	42
SAC	29
SAS	47
TOR	47
UTA	46
WAS	48
revised in light of mirotic getting knocked out
Last edited by sndesai1 on Tue Oct 17, 2017 10:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.

mtpowell22
Posts: 7
Joined: Tue Oct 03, 2017 4:45 am

Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest

Post by mtpowell22 » Tue Oct 17, 2017 2:29 am

Reminder that if you want automated scoring and in-season standings, put your projections in at www.wintotals.com and join us in League ID: c4493d41

Picks will lock before tipoff tomorrow night

GK5
Posts: 11
Joined: Thu Aug 25, 2016 12:53 am

Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest

Post by GK5 » Tue Oct 17, 2017 4:45 am

Good luck everyone!

Team Decimal-W Wins
GSW 62.98 63
SAS 58.10 58
HOU 55.14 55
CLE 51.40 52
DEN 49.94 50
LAC 49.20 49
MIN 49.13 49
TOR 48.00 48
BOS 47.95 48
OKC 46.81 47
WAS 45.20 45
CHA 44.98 45
UTA 44.94 45
NOP 43.30 43
MIA 42.91 43
MIL 42.51 43
POR 40.21 40
DET 36.89 37
MEM 36.81 37
DAL 36.24 36
ORL 33.31 33
IND 32.93 33
PHX 32.31 32
LAL 30.25 30
PHI 29.45 30
ATL 28.60 29
NYK 28.50 29
CHI 28.28 28
BRK 27.38 27
SAC 26.35 26

tarrazu
Posts: 71
Joined: Mon Aug 04, 2014 5:02 pm

Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest

Post by tarrazu » Tue Oct 17, 2017 6:15 am

mtpowell22 wrote:Reminder that if you want automated scoring and in-season standings, put your projections in at http://www.wintotals.com and join us in League ID: c4493d41

Picks will lock before tipoff tomorrow night
Got this message:

"You do not have access to this league or it does not exist. Please return to the “Leagues” home page to join or create a league."

AcrossTheCourt
Posts: 237
Joined: Sat Feb 16, 2013 11:56 am

Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest

Post by AcrossTheCourt » Tue Oct 17, 2017 11:12 am

CLE E 55.6 GSW W 68.0
MIL E 47.9 HOU W 58.5
TOR E 47.9 SAS W 52.9
BOS E 47.5 OKC W 52.0
WAS E 47.2 LAC W 50.9
CHA E 46.7 MIN W 49.8
MIA E 44.8 DEN W 46.5
DET E 35.2 NOP W 44.9
ORL E 33.3 UTA W 43.9
IND E 30.9 POR W 42.1
PHI E 30.3 MEM W 38.2
NYK E 28.4 DAL W 32.3
BKN E 28.0 LAL W 25.7
CHI E 26.2 PHX W 24.8
ATL E 25.1 SAC W 24.4

Mike G
Posts: 4413
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest

Post by Mike G » Tue Oct 17, 2017 1:02 pm

So far, we have 12 entries plus 538, and we collectively predict 48 wins for the T-Wolves. Vegas concurs, at 47.
But this team has under-won, relative to their season point-differential, for 10 straight seasons.
Most or all of our 'systems' predict scoring margin, and translate that into wins, yes?

Last year, Minny 'should have won' 38 but took just 31 -- minus 7. Previous years: -3, -4, -8...
Looking up the last 3 seasons' over-unders, weighting them by recency (4-3-2), we get these weighted averages:

Code: Select all

Wins-PythW     Wins-PythW
GSW   3.8      Min   -5.1
Mem   3.7      Uta   -3.2
Was   2.5      Cha   -2.4
Atl   2.0      Phx   -2.1
Bos   1.5      Phl   -2.0
Mil   1.3      Brk   -1.8
Hou   1.3      Det   -1.5
Chi   1.2      Den   -1.5
Cle   1.1      NYK   -1.1
Orl   1.0      NOP   -0.8
Dal   0.8      Sac   -0.8
Tor   0.6      LAL   -0.5
SAS   0.5      LAC   -0.5
Por   0.5      Ind   -0.4
Mia   0.2         
Okl   0.2         
It may be coaching, or it may be a 'culture' of winning/losing that drives these things.
Three seasons is of course a small sample size; and beyond 3 years, things may have changed.
I'm considering adding 1/2 or 1/3 of these values to all teams' win projections.

mtpowell22
Posts: 7
Joined: Tue Oct 03, 2017 4:45 am

Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest

Post by mtpowell22 » Tue Oct 17, 2017 2:38 pm

tarrazu wrote:
mtpowell22 wrote:Reminder that if you want automated scoring and in-season standings, put your projections in at http://www.wintotals.com and join us in League ID: c4493d41

Picks will lock before tipoff tomorrow night
Got this message:

"You do not have access to this league or it does not exist. Please return to the “Leagues” home page to join or create a league."
Had you logged in already? Try again if you can as others have been successfully joining. Let me know if you continue to have this problem

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