Rookies of 2017-18

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Mike G
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Rookies of 2017-18

Post by Mike G » Sat Nov 04, 2017 12:35 am

At this early stage, not quite 10% of the season, rookies project to supply 85 wins on the year.

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e82    per36 rates   tm  Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
11.4  Ben Simmons   Phl   35  .534   18.1   9.9   8.0   1.6   3.4   .4   1.94
6.9   Jayson Tatum  Bos   32  .621   18.0   7.6   2.3    .9   2.1  1.1   1.26
6.7 Lauri Markkanen Chi   33  .589   18.7   9.8    .5    .6   1.9   .6   1.22
5.0   Lonzo Ball    LAL   34  .399    9.7   7.5   6.9   1.2   3.3   .6    .88
4.8   Kyle Kuzma    LAL   27  .609   18.6   6.2   2.0    .7   1.7   .0   1.07

4.7   John Collins  Atl   19  .540   17.6  12.2   1.0    .7   1.5  1.5   1.44
4.4   Mike James    Phx   24  .532   17.8   3.8   5.6   1.3   3.0   .4   1.09
4.4   De'Aaron Fox  Sac   27  .446   15.2   5.3   5.3   1.0   2.4   .0    .95
3.0   D Mitchell    Uta   24  .445   17.5   3.1   3.9   1.5   3.4   .8    .74
2.4   Daniel Theis  Bos   15  .651   15.8  11.8   1.2    .3   3.0  2.0   1.11

e82    per36 rates   tm  Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
2.2   Dennis Smith  Dal   28  .450   14.2   3.8   6.4   1.1   4.7   .2    .60
2.1  Jonathan Isaac Orl   18  .609    9.9   8.8   1.8   1.6   1.9  1.9    .77
2.0   Jordan Bell   GSW    9  .865   20.5   8.4   3.5   1.9   1.9  1.9   1.84
2.0  Bgd Bogdanovic Sac   24  .526   14.7   3.5   2.4   2.1   1.5   .6    .78
1.8   OG Anunoby    Tor   18  .471   10.5   4.5   3.0   1.7    .3   .0    .62

1.7   Bam Adebayo   Mia   19  .500    9.8  11.0    .0   1.2    .8   .7    .74
1.7   Josh Jackson  Phx   23  .451   12.5   5.0   1.1   2.1   1.7   .0    .42
1.6   Malik Monk    Cha   22  .460   14.9   2.9   2.7    .8   2.3   .4    .44
1.4   Brandon Paul  SAS   14  .837   15.3   3.3   1.3   1.7   2.0   .7    .60
1.4   Dillon Brooks Mem   29  .518   11.3   4.7   1.7   1.5   2.4   .4    .28
1.4   S Thornwell   LAC   10  .558   14.3   3.1   2.6   1.4    .5   .9    .79
It looks like 45 eWins for East rookies and 40 in the West.
Last season, the rookie crop was projecting to 40 eWins or so, until sometime in March; finishing with 56, thanks to more minutes.

eminence
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Re: Rookies of 2017-18

Post by eminence » Sat Nov 04, 2017 11:12 am

Been loving our rook Mitchell so far. Shot off the first few games, but supremely confident and seems to have a ton of talent.

Mike G
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Re: Rookies of 2017-18

Post by Mike G » Thu Nov 09, 2017 2:04 pm

With the season at 13.3%, rookies have slumped a bit to 80 projected eWins for the year.

Code: Select all

e82    per36 rates  tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
10.9  Ben Simmons   Phl   35  .504   16.6  10.1   8.3   1.8   3.8   .8   1.83
6.8   Jayson Tatum  Bos   30  .633   18.8   7.3   2.6    .9   2.1  1.0   1.35
6.1 Lauri Markkanen Chi   33  .580   17.8   8.9   1.3    .4   1.8   .5   1.11
5.2   Kyle Kuzma    LAL   30  .619   18.3   7.3   1.5    .5   1.8   .1   1.03
4.7   Mike James    Phx   24  .503   16.4   4.1   5.6   1.5   2.2   .4   1.15

4.5   John Collins  Atl   20  .535   15.9  12.5   1.0    .8   2.1  1.8   1.32
4.4   Lonzo Ball    LAL   33  .350    8.1   6.7   6.9   1.2   2.6   .9    .78
4.0   De'Aaron Fox  Sac   27  .459   15.7   4.7   5.9    .8   3.0   .1    .88
3.3  Dono. Mitchell Uta   25  .441   17.2   3.4   3.2   1.5   3.1  1.0    .76
3.2   Dennis Smith  Dal   28  .460   16.8   4.7   6.0   1.0   4.6   .1    .79

e82   per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
2.2 Bog. Bogdanovic Sac   24  .559   15.5   3.7   2.0   1.5   1.7   .8    .77
2.2   OG Anunoby    Tor   17  .486   10.3   5.1   3.2   1.8    .6   .2    .78
1.9   Malik Monk    Cha   22  .462   14.4   2.8   3.7    .7   2.1   .2    .51
1.7   Daniel Theis  Bos   14  .628   13.4   9.8   1.3    .7   3.2  1.8    .80
1.7   Dillon Brooks Mem   30  .500   10.4   5.3   1.7   1.5   2.3   .6    .33

1.6   Jordan Bell   GSW    9  .706   12.5   8.4   3.7   1.8   1.8  1.9   1.28
1.6  Jonathan Isaac Orl   20  .531    9.4   7.4   1.6   1.0   1.9  1.6    .52
1.5   Josh Jackson  Phx   22  .461   12.8   4.7   1.2   2.0   2.5   .1    .40
1.4 Frank Ntilikina NYK   20  .396    6.8   3.4   8.2   2.7   3.8   .2    .52
1.4   Bam Adebayo   Mia   14  .526    9.0  11.1    .0   1.3   1.0  1.2    .81
1.3   Dwayne Bacon  Cha   24  .443    8.1   6.8   1.9    .8   1.2   .2    .33
Shooting slumps for Simmons and Ball.

Mike G
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Re: Rookies of 2017-18

Post by Mike G » Sun Nov 26, 2017 6:41 pm

Rookies still heading for 80 total eWins, through .233 of the season.

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e82   per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
10.8   Ben Simmons  Phl   35  .521   17.7   9.1   8.4   2.2   3.6   .8   1.92
6.5   Jayson Tatum  Bos   30  .617   18.8   6.7   1.8   1.2   1.8  1.0   1.26
5.7 Lauri Markkanen Chi   30  .528   16.0   9.7   1.4    .7   1.9   .6   1.10
5.4   Lonzo Ball    LAL   33  .372    8.3   7.7   7.5   1.6   2.9  1.0    .96
5.3   Kyle Kuzma    LAL   32  .578   18.7   6.7   1.6    .5   2.2   .1    .98

5.3   D Mitchell    Uta   28  .477   18.5   4.3   4.2   1.7   2.9   .8   1.11
4.8   John Collins  Atl   23  .603   16.6  10.9   1.2    .9   2.4  1.3   1.24
4.0   Dennis Smith  Dal   29  .453   17.3   5.3   5.4   1.2   4.3   .4    .92
3.7   Mike James    Phx   23  .463   14.7   4.4   5.5   1.4   2.5   .4    .95
2.9   De'Aaron Fox  Sac   27  .450   13.4   4.2   5.1   1.2   2.9   .1    .65

e82   per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
2.2   OG Anunoby    Tor   19  .612   13.1   4.0   2.1   1.6    .6   .1    .71
1.8  Bgd Bogdanovic Sac   24  .517   13.9   3.4   2.4   1.5   2.1   .6    .55
1.7   Dillon Brooks Mem   30  .534   10.8   4.8   1.6   1.3   1.8   .7    .33
1.5   Jordan Bell   GSW   10  .703   10.9   9.1   4.5   1.8   2.0  2.9   1.35
1.5   Josh Jackson  Phx   22  .445   12.8   5.5   1.6   2.1   3.2   .4    .41
1.4   Daniel Theis  Bos   13  .574   11.1  10.9   1.3   1.0   3.4  1.8    .70
Simmons is on pace to rack up 8.65 Win Shares and 5.01 VORP. Here is the complete list of rookies to make at least 90% of both:

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rookie    yr    VORP   WS
Magic    1980   5.3   10.5
Bird     1980   5.4   11.5
Jordan   1985   8.1   14.0
Robinson 1990   6.4   15.1
Duncan   1998   6.0   12.8
Paul     2006   5.7   10.4
http://bkref.com/tiny/PwyoC

Crow
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Re: Rookies of 2017-18

Post by Crow » Tue Nov 28, 2017 4:32 am

Lots of meh to bad performances to date by the rookies. Not surprising by history but seems sonewhat out of sync with the high praise this class' top 7-14 got.

Mike G
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Re: Rookies of 2017-18

Post by Mike G » Tue Nov 28, 2017 12:31 pm

Relative to last 10 seasons' rookie classes, they look pretty good. I've expanded their current Win Shares to 82 games, and listing rookies since 2008-09 to get 5+ WS:

Code: Select all

yr  WS    rookies
09  6.4  M Gasol
09  6.1  Fernandez
09  5.8  B Lopez
09  5.3  Love
09  5.2  Chalmers
09  5.1  Augustin
10  5.4  Tyreke
11  9.8  Griffin
11  6.6  Monroe
11  5.3  Fields
12  5.5  Leonard
13  6.1  A Davis
13  5.8  Lillard
14
15  5.7  Mirotic
16  8.3  Towns 
16  6.7  Jokic
17
18  10.  Tatum
18  8.2  Simmons
18  6.2  Kuzma
18  5.7  Collins
18  4.7  Anunoby
I've included Anunoby , since rookies generally get more minutes (and improve) later in the year.
Seems like a great rookie class, relative to others in recent memory. Two of the top 3 in 10 years?
Same deal with VORP -- those above 1.5 --

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yr  VORP   rookies
09  2.5  Fernandez
09  2.1   M Gasol
09  1.8   Chalmers
09  1.7   Batum
10  2.5   Tyreke
10  2.2   Curry
10  1.9   Jennings
11  4.0   Griffin
11  2.5   Monroe
11  1.7   Fields
12  2.4   Leonard
12  2.1   Irving
12  1.7   Parsons
13  2.0   A Davis
13  1.9   Lillard
14
15  1.6   Noel
16  3.1   Towns
16  3.0   Jokic
17  
18  5.5   Simmons
18  4.0   Tatum
18  2.0   Anunoby
18  1.5   Collins
On both lists, just 3 in the last 4 years; at least that many this year alone.

Crow
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Re: Rookies of 2017-18

Post by Crow » Tue Nov 28, 2017 7:00 pm

Of top 10 draft picks from this class, I see one doing great, 2 ok at best, 7 lousy.
Of the whole first round, I see about ten above league average in whatever minutes (may be modest to small) and the rest weak to terrible. Overall this seems more typical class than outstanding. The later part of the draft may be comparatively better than the front part. Some guys given big minutes have per game numbers might sound decent to good but when you look at efficiency and overall metrics, it generally isn't even ok, imo.

Mike G
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Re: Rookies of 2017-18

Post by Mike G » Tue Nov 28, 2017 9:33 pm

OK, maybe 10 years of rookie histories are insufficient, and they've all been lousy.
Going to 15 seasons, incl. this one, we can see how this bunch would rank if they keep their per-minute rates to the end of the season. An average year would have one player ranked in the top 15, 2 in the top 30, etc.
The top 100 rookie minutes in the previous 14 seasons get us down to 1831. So I'm including this year's rookies projecting to >1500, since minutes tend to rise during the season.
http://bkref.com/tiny/FMCta
These aren't all the best WinShares of the last 15 years, but among those with 1831+ minutes:

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WS/48   rookie   rk
.189   Tatum      1
.153   Anunoby    5
.147   Collins    8
.138   Simmons   11
.115   Kuzma     20
.066   Isaac     58
.064   Markkanen 60
.037   Brooks    80
.035   James     81
.025   Mitchell  91
.023  Bogdanovic 94
An avg year would have 6 or 7 among the top 100; so not only does this year stand to dominate the top 15, they represent well all the way down.
Chris Paul's .178 is the best rookie WS/48 in the previous 14 yrs. He also holds the best BPM in the era, 6.1

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BPM    rookie   rk
4.7   Simmons    2
3.0   Tatum      5
2.8   Anunoby    7
0.4   Collins   27
-.6   Isaac     53
-.8   Ball      58
-1.2  Kuzma     64
-1.4  Brooks    66
-1.4  Mitchell  67
-1.6  Markkanen 71
-2.2 Bogdanovic 86
-2.3  James     90
-2.8  Smith     99
It's apparently fairly uncommon for a rookie to get big minutes at above-avg BPM rates. This year has twice the normal number in this "acceptable" range.
The top 4 PER in the era belong to Towns, Paul, Griffin, and Davis.

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PER     rookie   rk
20.3   Simmons    5
19.9   Collins    6
16.6   Tatum     20
15.5   Kuzma     31
14.9   Markkanen 42
14.4   James     48
13.8   Anunoby   57
13.1   Mitchell  67
12.4  Bogdanovic 76
12.3   Isaac     79
11.5   Smith     88
11.2   Fox       90
Lonzo Ball at 10.0 would rank #90, but for the 12 above who squeeze him out of the top 100.

So every metric I can find indicates this rookie class has about twice the avg class' talent, at pretty much every level but the top, where there is even more.
You may still make the case that it was a bad year for drafting, which is just a poor correlation between excellence and pick number. But the rookies came from somewhere and seem to be fine.
If you take away Simmons and Tatum, you still have a fairly good crop?

Crow
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Re: Rookies of 2017-18

Post by Crow » Tue Nov 28, 2017 10:41 pm

Thanks for the extra comparative work. I might back off some with the did of this research. I am probably too hard of them but yeah most drafts seem disappointing to me at least compared to the hype. 2-4 strong rookies is notable but so is the shortfall from Ball, Smith and Mitchell, Fox, Ntilikina, Kennard, Monk, the Jacksons, etc. It is the number who were outright terrible (by RPM, BPM, WS/48), not just "weak". I probably should wait til yr3 but the overhype provokes me.

eminence
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Re: Rookies of 2017-18

Post by eminence » Wed Nov 29, 2017 2:51 pm

Yeah, I think the rookie crop this year has looked spectacular. Among guys getting starter level minutes Simmons/Tatum have looked absolutely stellar, ROY contenders in almost any year (Simmons maybe really in any). Then a whole crop who've looked solid Markannen, Kuzma, Mitchell, Brooks. Fox/Smith/Ball fairly normal level of rookie struggles for a lead guard it seems to me. In the lower minutes regions some bigtime standouts as well in OG/Collins. And plenty of others that look like they should stick. And that's all with the #1 pick out injured.

Crow
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Re: Rookies of 2017-18

Post by Crow » Wed Nov 29, 2017 9:58 pm

D Mitchell: Way below average ts%, A/TO of just 1.5. Weak from mid-range and takes too many from there. Loses his PG match-up badly. SG matchup is about even. Awful shooting in the clutch.

RPM is only mildly negative and raw on/off is moderately positive. They are going to continue to invest time in him. As they should, all things considered.

Mike G
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Re: Rookies of 2017-18

Post by Mike G » Fri Dec 08, 2017 8:01 pm

At 30% of the season, rookies project to 82 total eWins.

Code: Select all

e82   per36 rates  tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
9.9   Ben Simmons  Phl   36  .509   16.1   9.3   7.8   2.3   3.8   .8  1.70
6.7   D Mitchell   Uta   29  .527   22.0   4.0   4.4   1.7   3.0   .6  1.35
6.5   Jayson Tatum Bos   31  .635   18.6   6.8   1.9   1.2   1.6   .9  1.26
5.1   L Markkanen  Chi   31  .509   15.2   9.4   1.4    .7   1.7   .6   .99
4.8   Kyle Kuzma   LAL   30  .575   18.5   7.2   1.7    .5   2.3   .2   .97

4.8   Lonzo Ball   LAL   33  .380    8.0   7.4   7.2   1.6   2.9  1.1   .85
4.5   John Collins Atl   23  .613   17.0  11.1   1.2   1.0   2.3  1.4  1.31
4.1   Dennis Smith Dal   28  .461   17.7   5.3   5.3   1.1   4.0   .4   .94
3.6   Mike James   Phx   21  .460   14.7   4.7   6.0   1.4   2.7   .4   .99
2.5   De'Aaron Fox Sac   26  .450   12.8   4.6   4.8   1.2   3.1   .3   .57

e82   per36 rates  tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
2.1   OG Anunoby   Tor   19  .621   13.1   4.0   1.9   1.7    .9   .1   .65
2.0   Jordan Bell  GSW   11  .718   12.5  10.0   3.9   1.8   2.2  3.3  1.47
2.0  Bg Bogdanovic Sac   24  .528   14.2   3.6   2.8   1.7   2.5   .4   .56
2.0   Daniel Theis Bos   13  .606   13.2  11.9   1.4   1.3   3.5  2.0  1.00
1.6   Frank Mason  Sac   18  .535   15.9   3.5   5.1    .8   3.0   .0   .75

1.5   Bam Adebayo  Mia   15  .627   12.7   9.3    .3   1.9   1.8  1.5   .93
1.3  Jarrett Allen Brk   16  .582   10.0   7.5   1.2   1.4   1.1  2.0   .71
1.3   Josh Jackson Phx   22  .442   12.6   5.5   1.7   1.9   3.2   .3   .35
1.3   Maxi Kleber  Dal   16  .592   11.4   7.3   1.0    .6   1.0  1.0   .62
1.1   Malik Monk   Cha   17  .452   13.1   2.9   3.8    .5   1.8   .3   .44
Donovan Mitchell has really tightened his offensive game since previous report:

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Gms     mpg   TS%   TO%    Usg%   ORt  DRt   GmSc
1-19   28.1  .468   13.2   28.2    91  106    7.9
20-26  32.9  .667   11.6   31.5   120  109   18.5

Crow
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Re: Rookies of 2017-18

Post by Crow » Sun Dec 10, 2017 7:19 am

Rank relative to draft position, 5 of the top 10 performers here exceed drat pick rank.

Zac Collins hasn't done much. Ntilikina would rate an underperformer relative to pick #. BPM really rates both of the Jacksons very poor.

Mike G
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Re: Rookies of 2017-18

Post by Mike G » Sun Dec 10, 2017 12:49 pm

Agree, they haven't done much. These # are a couple days old --

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per36 rates   tm  mpg  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  Stl   TO   Blk  e484
Josh Jackson Phx   22  .442  12.6   5.5   1.7  1.9   3.2   .3   .35
F Ntilikina  NYK   19  .405   8.1   3.5   5.4  2.4   3.5   .2   .23
Ju. Jackson  Sac   18  .482  11.3   3.4    .7   .3   1.5   .2   .02
Zach Collins Por    5  .167   1.9   5.7   1.9   .0   5.7   .0 -1.22
It's not good when TO are one of your biggest quantities.
A zero in that last column is pretty much just that, not a player who would stick around. ZC is off the chart at this point.
Oh yeah, he has fouled about 10 times per36.

Mike G
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Re: Rookies of 2017-18

Post by Mike G » Sat Dec 23, 2017 4:40 pm

With the season 39% done, rookies project to total 85.6 eWins

Code: Select all

e82  per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
9.2   Ben Simmons  Phl   37  .519   15.6   8.8   8.0   2.0   4.1   .8   1.54
6.3   Jayson Tatum Bos   31  .633   18.4   6.9   1.8   1.1   1.5   .9   1.22
6.0   D Mitchell   Uta   30  .527   21.7   3.8   4.3   1.8   3.0   .5   1.26
5.8   Kyle Kuzma   LAL   32  .601   19.7   7.6   1.7    .4   2.2   .3   1.13
5.1   Lonzo Ball   LAL   34  .423    9.3   7.2   7.1   1.5   3.1  1.1    .89

5.0   L Markkanen  Chi   30  .521   16.4   9.3   1.5    .7   1.6   .6   1.09
4.4   John Collins Atl   23  .634   17.3  11.5   1.4   1.1   2.3  1.5   1.39
3.6   Mike James   Phx   21  .469   15.8   4.6   6.1   1.5   2.7   .4   1.07
3.5   Dennis Smith Dal   28  .465   17.6   5.4   5.5   1.0   3.9   .4    .99
2.9   Jordan Bell  GSW   13  .725   14.2   9.2   4.9   1.8   2.5  3.0   1.55

e82  per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
2.4   Bam Adebayo  Mia   19  .634   13.8   9.2   1.5   1.3   1.7  1.2   1.03
2.3  Bg Bogdanovic Sac   25  .546   14.4   3.6   2.9   1.5   2.4   .4    .59
2.0   De'Aaron Fox Sac   25  .446   12.6   4.2   4.6   1.3   3.3   .3    .51
1.9   OG Anunoby   Tor   21  .631   13.1   3.8   1.6   1.6   1.1   .1    .54
1.9   Daniel Theis Bos   13  .557   12.1  10.9   1.6   1.2   2.9  1.9    .92

1.7   Frank Mason  Sac   19  .486   14.2   4.1   4.7    .9   2.7   .3    .70
1.7   Maxi Kleber  Dal   19  .599   11.4   6.9   1.1    .5    .7  1.1    .64
1.4   Josh Jackson Phx   23  .433   12.5   5.7   1.6   1.6   2.9   .5    .37
1.4   T Cavanaugh  Atl   14  .624   13.0   8.2   2.6    .9   1.0   .2    .95
1.3  Jarrett Allen Brk   17  .569   10.2   7.7    .9   1.2   1.3  2.0    .65

e82  per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1.2   F Ntilikina  NYK   20  .453    9.4   3.8   5.4   2.3   3.3   .2    .38
1.1  Dillon Brooks Mem   28  .545   10.5   4.4   1.5   1.1   1.7   .5    .23
0.9   Luke Kennard Det   17  .498   11.8   3.6   2.7   1.3   1.8   .4    .40
0.9   Malik Monk   Cha   15  .456   12.9   2.6   3.6    .7   1.8   .2    .42
0.9   M Teodosic   LAC   23  .446   12.4   6.1   7.5    .7   2.8   .5    .99
West now has the lead in projected eWins, 44 to 41

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