2018-19 season commentary

Home for all your discussion of basketball statistical analysis.
Crow
Posts: 6245
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Mon Oct 29, 2018 4:30 am

A proper weighted Moreyball index would look at % of scoring possessions used at the rim, foul line and 3 pt line. Spurs 29th on 3pt rate, 15th on ft rate, 26th on shots at rim. Kings, Cavs and Pacers are the only teams close to the Spurs. I think Spurs are lowest.

Small ball and Moreyball are not identical. Gobert is a great Moreyball player because of extremely high ft rate and at the rim shot rate. His ft rate is 13th highest in league overall and absolute tops for a bigger minute guy.


Fultz pairs with Embid, Redick and Shamet overall are near neutral but create a trio with Embid and one of the guards or a quad with both and the Sixers have done great, light years better than other Fultz trios or quads not focused on these guys. Sixers only using these trios and quad about half of Fultz's time. Probably ought to be 3/4ths or higher.

eminence
Posts: 140
Joined: Sun Sep 10, 2017 8:20 pm

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by eminence » Mon Oct 29, 2018 4:31 pm

Still early, but I'm pretty happy with how the lottery picks are looking.

Ayton - Defense still a concern, but his offense has looked great, better passing than I expected, hope to see him show some real stretch ability at some point (3/6 from 16+ so far).

Bagley - He's been real bad, team passing seems to tank with him on court (-9.7 Ast%), while opponent Ast% skyrockets (+13.2%). Indicative of generally low awareness imo, maybe it can improve.

Doncic - Overall has looked okay imo, Dallas is putting him in more of a scoring role, which I'm a bit surprised by, hope they switch him towards more playmaking at some point. Box-score and +/- very divergent on how he's doing.

JJJ - Another rookie tanking his teams Ast% (-24.7!!!), defensive rotations haven't looked great, but activity level is pretty high (5+ stocks/100), the fit at PF seems questionable long-term. 3pt shot is off, but not too concerned about that.

Young - On/Off horrible, but think that's largely powered by a ridiculous opponents shooting split (+.185 eFG%). Vision has looked good, but his scoring/shooting aren't coming around. Looks like he might be getting punished on the glass some too? Patiently waiting to see how he looks with Collins when he returns.

Bamba - Haven't watched any Magic, by the box-score he doesn't seem to have shown anything. Magic's offense struggling very predictably and another big doesn't help that.

WCJ - The Bulls are just so bad at the top of their lineup. Put in a pretty much un-salvageable defensive position for a rookie. Wish they were getting him some more touches on offense. The process looked okay in the game I watched, but it'll be tough to take much from this season at this rate.

Sexton - Umm... he's hitting his FTs at least? Lack of shooting is a real problem and I haven't seen anything on ball either. I didn't and still don't understand why he was a consensus lottery guy. Cleveland overall even worse than I expected.

Knox - Holy cow he came out shooting a lot. Can't say much, injury came so early.

Mikal - Mostly payed attention to Ayton in Suns games, another case of divergent +/- and boxscore. Had one of the most ridiculous +/- numbers I've ever seen in that Denver game.

SGA - Has looked great, very good defensively for a rookie guard. Would like to see him continue to work on that spot up shot. Overall very pleasantly surprised. Think you could make an argument he's been the best performing rookie so far.

Miles - Finishing at an absolutely absurd rate so far. Shooting it well too. Haven't watched much Charlotte, but they're still finding a way to lose the close ones (losses by 1, 2, and 2 along with a 1 pt win and we're only 7 games in).

Robinson - Not playing. No idea why he was drafted #13 from all I've seen.

MPJ - Also out.

Haven't watch much of too many other rookies. I've caught some Shamet, shot is off, but promising that he seems to have cracked the Sixers rotation. Allen seems to be slowly working into some playing time for the Jazz. Hoping Carter can return soon for the Grizz, want to see what he can do in place of Mack.

Crow
Posts: 6245
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Tue Oct 30, 2018 3:50 pm

Doncic's efg% and ts% just improved beyond average because of last night. Where will they be mid and end of season? Still has a bad turnover problem hurting offensive rating (off rtg 101, OBPM still slightly negative). Offensive rebounding is still very light. Defense appears weak but waiting on BRPM.

Crow
Posts: 6245
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Wed Oct 31, 2018 12:12 am

How much did Lue's insubordination about playing vets figure into his firing? I assume it did. He was likely to get canned anyway but hard to see thinking you could do that without some repercussions. Did he want to get fired? I dunno. Maybe.

Drew trying to get security is understandable in itself but the way he did seemed doomed to fail, especially after the Altman - Lue exchange.

Who does Altman want? Who does Gilbert want? Who will actually decide? Now or in summer?

Crow
Posts: 6245
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Wed Oct 31, 2018 2:36 am

None of the Rockets' off season additions are looking good. But... none of the guys lost are doing anything special either, at least by box score metrics.

Rockets are still a Moreyball but no longer one with diverse Moreyball strengths.

Crow
Posts: 6245
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Thu Nov 01, 2018 3:49 am

Hornets are pretty much average across all offensive & defensive factors except for being the best at not turning the ball over. Slight bias toward being a 3 pt shooting. Opponents take even more though. Slow relative pace.

Crow
Posts: 6245
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Thu Nov 01, 2018 9:21 pm

In 8 games Brett Brown has put 124 different lineups on the court. 31% are cumulatively positive (relatively low). Only about 15 of the lineups have been used in more than 2 games. Only 3 in more than 4 games. That is a lot of experimentation. That isn't much concentration / consistency.

Last season's starters are still most used lineup. 7.5 minutes per game, same as last season. That seems low, sub-optimal.

Crow
Posts: 6245
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Thu Nov 01, 2018 9:51 pm

Kings have a poor shot selection profile from a Moreyball perspective but they are hitting well right now.

Crow
Posts: 6245
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Fri Nov 02, 2018 4:07 am

Might Kings or Magic make a serious bid for Jimmy Butler? Probably not. Probably not without a commitment to re-sign. But I think there would be potentially acceptable packages that could be offered. If they were willing to be bold.

Crow
Posts: 6245
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Sun Nov 04, 2018 10:10 pm

After an initial even start, West has surged to an overall 2 to 1 lead in inter-division games.

In case you haven't already seen it, I have other recent analysis and commentary here @bballstrategy on Jazz, Nets, Celtics, Sixers, Magic, short midrangers, Doncic, etc.

eminence
Posts: 140
Joined: Sun Sep 10, 2017 8:20 pm

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by eminence » Sun Nov 04, 2018 11:02 pm

Haven't been real impressed with my Jazz so far :(

Can't get in any sort of offensive rhythm (Rubio has been bad, and Mitchell has gotten dinged up at inopportune times). Crowder looking very solid is a bright spot. Favors at the 4 experiment probably has to end soon, there were some promising signs last season, but with Rubio in a funk it's just too much. Exum has looked alright. Niang probably deserves some more minutes, and can't wait for Burks to be back to take over Allen's minutes (wish we had Shamet about now).

Crow
Posts: 6245
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Sun Nov 04, 2018 11:07 pm

Posted a full Jazz rotation at @bballstrategy on twitter. Could be better if a product of dozens or hundreds of hours but demonstrates greater concentration on good lineups and pairs, avoiding some of the worst current ones. His top 10 most used lineups are generally good but not playing enough minutes. His dink lineups have very numerous, too frequent and more than 80% cumulatively negative.

eminence
Posts: 140
Joined: Sun Sep 10, 2017 8:20 pm

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by eminence » Sun Nov 04, 2018 11:21 pm

Hmm, not sure why you're so high on the starters. Bbref has them at -8/100 in 65 minutes.

Agreed that Quin needs to settle the rotation (I don't need to see Udoh without injuries, need to pick a primary of Allen/Burks/O'Neale - I like Burks), though now is the time of season to do it. Unfortunately still need to see how Thabo is feeling this season as he just recently returned from suspension.

Rubio
Mitchell
Ingles
Crowder
Gobert

Exum
One Wing
Favors

Should be a solid rotation.

Crow
Posts: 6245
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Mon Nov 05, 2018 1:00 am

I casually assumed the biggest minute lineup with Crowder was the new starting unit. It isn't (except for one game). It should be.

eminence
Posts: 140
Joined: Sun Sep 10, 2017 8:20 pm

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by eminence » Mon Nov 05, 2018 1:07 am

Ahh, easy mix up, yeah, it's been weird, I don't know why they don't just switch to that as the starting lineup.

Post Reply