2018-19 season commentary

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Crow
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Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Tue Nov 13, 2018 4:45 pm

Hornets, doing pretty well. Very well by SRS. -2 on actual wins over expected by some combination of luck or inexperience / mismanagement at moments.

Mix of average and strong factors. No major weaknesses. Shot selection is one of the least advanced team attributes. Not enough Moreyball or Moreyball balance. Having shooting talent, but probably not getting the max out of it. Too much Spurs' like shooting from mid-range.

eminence
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Joined: Sun Sep 10, 2017 8:20 pm

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by eminence » Tue Nov 13, 2018 5:03 pm

The Hornets continue to amaze me with their ability to underperform point differential. Looking at a 3rd straight season that they're going to lead the league in that measure. I've tried to pinpoint cause, but haven't had any success.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Tue Nov 13, 2018 5:27 pm

Hornets very weak win - loss performers against good teams relative to overall performance last season and this season. So far this season no wins against a top 16 team (according to Sagarin). Do they have close losses or run it up against the less than good? I see 3 blow out wins against weak teams and 4 close losses so far this season. Will look for the extended standings that would put that in context of what is average on these measures.

Crow
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Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Tue Nov 13, 2018 5:41 pm

2nd worst in close games this season, worst last season. In top 5 records for blowouts this season but below average last season. Can't beat Atlantic teams this season (tied for worst record against that division). Tied for 5th worst last season.

Maybe the early blowouts this season were flukes. The other win-loss dimensions mentioned look the same.

Did well against southeast last season and this season. But most do that.

Crow
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Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Tue Nov 13, 2018 6:57 pm

In this season, 112 or better on team offensive efficiency is strong; 108 or less is strong on defensive efficiency. By these standards, there are 4 two way strong teams: Bucks, Raptors, Nuggets and Blazers. Don't have to be 2 way strong to win a title but it is a good start for contention. Team style will vary. Be the best version of you.

Crow
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Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Tue Nov 13, 2018 7:41 pm

Heat, fairly average on offense & defense overall. Good drawing fouls and getting offensive rebounds. Weak on own turnovers and fouls committed.

Would take a lot of change to go up a level or more. 7th and 8th seeds in east for the slightly less weak. Who wants them more or doesn't want them less?

Crow
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Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Tue Nov 13, 2018 8:48 pm

Favors looks his best ever on several box score metrics but is -6 per 100 possessions on the court overall and -17 on / off. He has 2 good big minute lineups that get half his time. The rest of the dink lineups that Synder is using him in are on average abysmal. Either go with the successful big minute lineups more frequently, trade him or probably accept further mediocre overall results. I don't have much faith in coaches fixing dink lineup results.

Favors with Gobert is his only main rotation positive pair. I hear grumbles about that pairing but the grumbles belong with almost everything else.

eminence
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by eminence » Wed Nov 14, 2018 12:19 am

Favors has played pretty well offensively, defensively think he's struggled some, but I think the whole team has. Finishing extremely well, even hitting a couple of corner 3s. Rubio struggling has hurt him, as he's very much a big who plays off his guards offensively. His pairing with Gobert isn't a problem per se, it's just the Gobert/Crowder pairing is/has been better. Starts the games, but functions more as a 6th man. Overall negative on/off due to inability to find success with bench perimeter guys, most of them playing poorly to meh so far (Exum/Royce/Allen). Burks return from minor injury could/should help somewhat. Overall team struggles (relative) I'd put down to Rubio being poor offensively (lesser extent Mitchell ~ partial pass due to injury) and the whole team not seeming locked in on defense. Not yet sure if it's a long-term problem or an adjustment period to new rules.

Getting cooked by Derrick Rose didn't help.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Thu Nov 15, 2018 3:01 am

Pistons, two most used lineups modestly bad. Everything else is basically dink minutes and on average neutral (which is better than usual). A handful or more look good in small sample. Try a few more of them more often. Not saying the most used should be quit. Yet. Would need to look closer.

Crow
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Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Thu Nov 15, 2018 3:21 am

Pistons started Bullock - Robinson. Modestly bad pair. Either with Galloway quite a bit better. Those starters were negative tonight. Galloway nicely positive.

Casey moved S Johnson out of starting lineup. Bullock might be the next to go. Galloway has not gotten hardly any shot at starting since joining team This would seen the right time to try it.

And next move is probably trading R Jackson. Or if that isn't possible, demoting him to bench unit.

eminence
Posts: 141
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by eminence » Thu Nov 15, 2018 3:48 am

Hot damn did the Jazz lay an egg tonight.

Crow
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Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Thu Nov 15, 2018 3:49 am

Bucks hold opponents below 110 points in 5 of first 7 games. Just once in last 7.

Crow
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Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Thu Nov 15, 2018 4:24 am

Early season Pacers, Turner takes step back, not forward. Evans not working at all.

Very low on Moreyball... and yet good team efg%. Any team take this contrarian approach deep in playoffs? Will have to look to remember.

Biggest minutes by far starting unit but barely above neutral. Moving quickly here but there is a surface case for swapping Joseph into it, replacing Collison. Get Sabonis in fast.

Crow
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Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Thu Nov 15, 2018 7:23 pm

Couldn't hope for better box score stats & metrics from Noel but bad on the court plus minus and horrendous on / off. Bad player pairs with a few not very important exceptions. Can't see him being a long term piece unless they change dramatically (blow it up).

Crow
Posts: 6249
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Thu Nov 15, 2018 9:25 pm

Most bigger minute lineups working for Clippers. The starting lineup isn't though. Moderately bad. 70% of the 20 most used pairs are positive. The only bad one is L Williams - Galinari.

Not taking many 3s but very strong on going inside.

Doing well. Not getting much attention. Teams won't want to face in 1st round.

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