2018-19 season commentary

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eminence
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by eminence » Mon Nov 19, 2018 10:20 pm

Utah could really use a second perimeter scorer, but probably doesn't have the resources to get Beal. Maybe would have a shot at Porter if they wanted to get out of his money.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Tue Nov 20, 2018 12:42 am

If Jazz got Porter, I'd think they'd want and have to move Favors to manage forward minutes.

What about Porter, Rivers, Howard, Satoranksy for Rubio, Favors, Sefolosha, O'Neale and Allen? Who says yes / no? Wiz get more defense and save some money / gain future flexibility; Jazz get more O and best player locked in.

I don't think Wiz trade Porter at all; but fwiw this works imo. Could follow up with other deals.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Tue Nov 20, 2018 1:39 am

Trade Wall? I'd try. Who might consider? Heat, Pistons. Maybe Pelicans. Possibly Mavs.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Tue Nov 20, 2018 2:40 am

Jazz needed better offense & defense tonight. But moreso offense.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Tue Nov 20, 2018 7:07 am

A 2 minute read of the Spurs' lineup and sublineup data suggests playing Mills Belinelli DeRozan Gay Aldridge a lot, maybe more than anything else but Pop has chosen to only play it a bit more than 1 minute game. Make it complicated and diffuse. No lineup tried more than 5 minutes per game. Yeah, that sounds like Pop.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:06 am

Before tonight 19 teams were .500 or better on win%. Jazz seem likely to rise above that line. It is also likely that one or more teams above the line will fall below by the end of the season. In last 2 seasons 17 and 18 teams got to or above that line.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Wed Nov 21, 2018 7:14 am

Post trade to TWolves Saric is shooting better but not playing better overall by several box score metrics. Covington is shooting great and doing well overall. Of course it is very early.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Wed Nov 21, 2018 9:57 pm

I didn't compute the exact numbers but it appears from the leaders that referees are more willing to give players 4 or more fouls this season and more willing to give offensive leaders 8 or more ftas in games.

Player games with 10 plus 3ptas are up about 10% from last season. # of player games with 5 or more 3pt makes is about the same, maybe down a few percent.

# of 35 plus point performances is about same or or down slightly.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Wed Nov 21, 2018 11:58 pm

Doncic in November vs. October (8 games in each): 2pt and 3fg% down. FT% up. TS% down. Above average in Oct., right at league average so far in Nov. Usage up. 3pt rate down 10-12%. FT rate down 30-40%. Offensive rating down a bit. Defensive rating improved by alot. Assists down, turnovers steady and very high. A/TO of less than 1.1. Rebounds up.

Listed height & weight almost exactly league average. Probably bigger. But not "big" if listing is accurate and not big by much even if bigger than listing. As a PF he is not big. Long arms? Maybe.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Thu Nov 22, 2018 3:14 am

When 5 of your top 6 guys on minutes have negative on / off, you have problems. What next Celtics?

I'd try more minutes with Irving Smart Tatum Morris... and Horford (depending on health) or Baynes. The former is very lightly tried, the latter very, very lightly tried or less. If you are willing to take guidance from player pairs, these appear to be the best constructions. Nothing else is as good. But Stevens hasn't gone this way hardly at all. Probably considered to be too many ego issues to start it but you could get to it.

Of the 20 biggest minute quads, all but one of 12 which are positive have at least 3 of these 6 guys in them. I would minimize or eliminate time with less than 3 of these in a 5 man lineup. That might mean keeping Rozier, Brown and Hayward closer to 20 minutes / gm than 30 (except when somebody in the 6 is injured or playing poorly or one of the 3 is doing especially well).

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Thu Nov 22, 2018 4:05 am

The DeRozan Gay Aldridge trio is what the Spurs are going to need to go somewhere. They are a moderate plus 5 on court together. For 15 minutes per game. Playoffs should logically get at least 25. If they get there. But so many dink lineups to meander thru til then or even then?

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Thu Nov 22, 2018 6:18 am

The standard for the Celtics should be higher than just 3 of the select 6 in lineups. They mostly do that now. 4 should be maximized and 5 should be much more frequent.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Thu Nov 22, 2018 6:31 am

Bucks and Rockets shoot the least mid-rangers at about 22% of shots from field. Spurs are highest at a ridiculous over 50%. That bias contributes to their 26th place rank on team efg%.

League average mid-range frequency is about 36%, down from a bit over 38% last season. About a 5% decline.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Thu Nov 22, 2018 6:56 am

Rotoworld depth charts and position assignments aren't perfect but Clippers and Bucks display an interesting and extreme pattern of lots of guards, lots of bigs and very few SFs. Only TWolves have more listed guards (9 vs. 8 for these two teams). Only Warriors and Spurs have more listed bigs (8 vs. 7).

The high number and minutes for the guards probably helps in both being top 5 offenses. The high number of bigs may help the defense.

Some SFs are elite but others are often meh at a lot of things or even weak compared to the other position averages by stats or complete sides (off. / def.).

By contrast, the king of the SF collection in this quick and rough check is the Heat (with 5 listed), followed by Hawks, Nuggets, Pelicans and Spurs (with 4).

2 way players may be affecting the counts.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Thu Nov 22, 2018 7:52 pm

Bjelica having the clear best season for an NBA player previously Euroleague MVP. Doncic has some big per game stats but his overall BPM and RPM are near average. Bjelica's are well above average.

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