2018-19 season commentary

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Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Sat Nov 24, 2018 2:12 am

Oh hey, Celtics now starting the lineup I recommended above. I didn't really expect it. Willingness to try change when things aren't working as well as desired is good. Working tonight.

Crow
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Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Mon Nov 26, 2018 4:47 am

In a recent newspaper article Quinn Snyder and several Jazz players talked a lot about hustle & focus. Sure... but that isn't enough.

Huge things are wrong. 6-7 of the top 10 rotation are playing way below what is needed / expected. Including Rubio, Mitchell and Ingles.

Jazz have a good starting lineup and an okay 1 change away variation then a sea of lineups used 2 minutes or less per game. If NBA coaches know what they are doing, they shouldn't be playing a sea of hit and miss dink and near-dink lineups after one or two main lineups. They should have a secondary set of lineups that they carefully selected and trust to do better than neutral on average. They probably should get 3-6 minutes per game each rather than 1-2, unless... you are getting back to your starters fast, riding it hard and long and getting a lit of edge from it. The Jazz might think they are doing that but imo they need to use the top 1 or 2 lineups 20-25 minutes per game, not just 15 minutes for both. If you play those main lineups 24 minutes, you can fill the other 24 minutes with 12-24 dinky lineups or 4-8 select ones, perhaps used several times. Until I see a coach who can win 50% or more of their dink lineups, I'd want them to be more selective. Even if they can do that, I'd want them to be more selective... but I fight less.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Mon Nov 26, 2018 5:13 am

Jazz win tonight but my commentary isn't driven by the lastest game. If they takeoff to greatness, so be it. But I'll rely on that after it is well started, not now, not yet.

Imo, they probably should trade Favors. The ten most used team player pairs are all positive and he is in none. He is in some positive smaller pairs but it is not enough. Crowder's pair data is better but I'd personally be open to trading him too if they could get a bigger scoring, overall better PF out of trading one or both.


I still want to trade Rubio. I am still far less impressed by Mitchell than what I mostly read about him.

Mitchell Ingles Gobert is a pretty good base but they need more. Favors / Crowder is pretty good at PF by RPM but still seems like not enough as deployed. Rubio is 33rd among PGs on RPM right now. He has been better. He either needs to get back to that (with better play and better coaching) or they to jump on something better, if that presents itself (probably won't without really big offer, probably with draft picks).

Trade Mitchell? Almost zero chance. But I'd at least look to see what you could get.

Either go all in on the this season and next or go very differently and all in on 2020 and beyond. I don't really believe many teams can hedge and play both games at once well. In general it appears to me Jazz should go all in on sooner than later.

But they won't. What are they going to have around Mitchell in fall 2020? Very likely not enough to go far.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Tue Nov 27, 2018 1:29 am

Oh hey, again... Smart starts. Plus 11 in first 7 minutes.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Tue Nov 27, 2018 2:37 pm

Celtics have 4 or up to 4 first round picks next summer. How many of those will play much next season? Likely 0-2.



After going 9-2 to start season, the Bucks have more recently gone 5-4. 10-2 at home, 4-4 on road. Own scoring trend is down in last 5 games and further in last 3. Opponent scoring way up in last 3.

4 elite factors (including both of the most important efg%s), 1 average, 3 weak. Strong on two parts of Moreyball but 24th on fta rate.

Suns win% is lower than last season. SRS a fraction of a point better. Kokoskov's win% is 12th worst in league history for coaches with at least as many games. Bottom 8% for all coaches. Lloyd Pierce one spot worse.

eminence
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by eminence » Tue Nov 27, 2018 3:15 pm

Rookies by Shadow's RAPM (11/25) with 200+ minutes (roughly on track for 1000+ for the season), 23 total

Mikal Bridges 2.04
Gary Clark 0.87
Jalen Brunson 0.80
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 0.68
Donte DiVincenzo 0.67
Miles Bridges 0.56
Luka Doncic 0.55
Kevin Huerter 0.41
Chandler Hutchison 0.11
Mitchell Robinson -0.03
Josh Okogie -0.06
Deandre Ayton -0.10
Hamidou Diallo -0.35
Jaren Jackson Jr -1.11
Landry Shamet -1.34
Allonzo Trier -1.45
Collin Sexton -1.57
Kevin Knox -1.68
Wendell Carter Jr -1.91
Omari Spellman -2.05
Marvin Bagley III -2.19
Mohamed Bamba -3.02
Trae Young -3.44

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Tue Nov 27, 2018 3:20 pm

Carter, not bad but maybe not as quick to impress as I expected.

I may look up / possibly name the folks who were on the low end for Mikal. This tweet https://mobile.twitter.com/Mike_Schmitz ... 9638758400 was dealing with folks in same tier but isn't looking good at the moment.

eminence
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by eminence » Tue Nov 27, 2018 3:56 pm

In general I think people over value form on shots, and I think that's what happened with Knox. He looks like a pretty good shooter, but he just doesn't make a high %. Obviously some time to improve.

Young continues to entertain even if he's not yet producing. 12th highest USG%, 4th highest AST% ever for rookies, nobody all that close on combined USG+AST (like 6-7% back). Harden/Barea the only guys above him this season. Unsure how this experiment will pay off for the Hawks.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Tue Nov 27, 2018 7:34 pm

With T Young on court, Hawks average -18 points / 100 possessions. With him off, near neutral. All his 10 most used pairs are double digit negative and 70% are worse than -15. One of the worst sets of pair data I have ever seen.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Tue Nov 27, 2018 8:02 pm

IF Hawks want to do well, I'd try Lin Bazemore Bembry Collins Len. Only 4 minutes of trial but some good player pairs. Sub in one of Huerter or Prince here and there. Sub Spellman and Polythress in together. PG is worst issue.
Lin is not likely the long-term answer but at least he isn't Young. If you want to tank, continue the Trae Young show.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Tue Nov 27, 2018 8:16 pm

Ideally for player management you'd have RPM for individuals, RAPM or RPM pair data and player RAPM splits for with a partner and without. And everything else.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Wed Nov 28, 2018 1:27 am

Only 22% of Jazz lineups are positive for season. You almost never see lower. Snyder has used 254 lineups. That is a lot of swinging and not hitting.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Wed Nov 28, 2018 1:44 am

Devin Booker continues to have little positive impact by BPM, RPM and team record. BPM estimate has his negative defensive impact wiping out all of his positive offensive impact. RPM has it wiping out 2/3rds of it. Still a manufactured faux star to me.

Crow
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Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Thu Nov 29, 2018 3:29 am

Knicks "playing hard"... they say. I guess in some ways. Playing hard to score, especially individually. But missing some things. Last on team efg% and very low on assists. Mostly bad defense. Bad at home. Not good on road. Lousy against good teams. Playing slower than average pace. Losing more often and with a worse SRS than last season.

Fiz knows how to give out a lot of stories. But not tonight. Blown out by 26. The numbers will go down further.

Find a strong performing lineup with Dotson & Robinson. Briefly start it. Then completely go away from it. Yeah...
Look at me working hard Coach style. 254 lineups used already. Positive 31% of the time. 40% better than Quinn Snyder on that. Heh.

eminence
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by eminence » Thu Nov 29, 2018 4:14 am

1-0 in the Kyle Korver era.

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