2018-19 season commentary

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Dr Positivity
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Dr Positivity » Fri Nov 30, 2018 4:30 am

eminence wrote:
Tue Nov 27, 2018 3:56 pm
In general I think people over value form on shots, and I think that's what happened with Knox. He looks like a pretty good shooter, but he just doesn't make a high %. Obviously some time to improve.
-8.1 BPM is egregious. He looked like the bust pick of the lotto to me. Taking a project with mediocre college stats is usually miss more than it anyways, but if you're going to do it I think it has to be a guy with jump off the page talent like Drummond or LaVine. Knox talent level isn't even that great (SF/PF combo with average athleticism and skill level) so it's not worth it with his college numbers. Same problem with Ntilikina, huge project based on being 9th man on a French team, but the tools aren't even that great. Knicks finally being patient but drafting is hard for the poorly run franchises too

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Sun Dec 02, 2018 4:53 am

After opening 7-0, the Bucks have gone 8-7.

5 of the first 7 wins featured them 3pt shooting of 37% or better. Only six of the last 15 games saw that level.

In the first 7, the opponent shot 35% or better from 3 only once. They've done so in 11 of last 15.

How much is luck vs skill in the before and after of Bucks & opponents?

Bucks and Bucks' opponents are both near average on 3pt fg% for season. Coming at different times though.

Does greater reliance on the 3 ball mean will we see more runs of hot & cold?

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Sun Dec 02, 2018 6:07 am

The 5 Knicks I'd most recommend trading are: Kanter, Hardaway, Knox, Hezonja and Ntilikina. They might trade the older 3. They shouldn't get anyone particularly good for any of them or the young guys. Maybe if you are crafty you get less bad out of a deal, especially a multi-asset deal.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Sun Dec 02, 2018 6:31 am

On a very quick look at sub-lineup data for Nets, I got interested in Russell Harris LeVert Allen quad. With RHJ barely tried before the injury but was great. Pair data with Russell & LeVert might be legitimate concerns though. Starters with Dudley were just meh neutral. It was probably the wrong choice, unless you aren't trying your hardest. With Ed Davis? Barely tried, if at all. Dudley certainly isn't future. Is neutral enough to justify his lineup? Not if you don't stay close to playoffs. Without LeVert, could sub in Crabbe. With Crabbe and RHJ has done well in, again, just light (too light) minutes.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Sun Dec 02, 2018 7:09 am

Not aware how much heat the Heat are getting locally but haven't heard any national noise as a result of the weak start. Not really a big story / concern I guess. No "star" player really to attack or have sympathy for. Coach & GM, not making much noise. Urgency? I dunno. Estimated to have had 2nd or 3rd easiest schedule to date.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Sun Dec 02, 2018 4:41 pm

Leaguewide 3pt fg% is 3rd lowest in 15 years. Attempts have doubled in that time. Continued trend up by a steady amount.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Mon Dec 03, 2018 8:07 pm

Celtics have won 4 of last 5. Maybe a better mix of lineups and / or better play. Slight increase in minutes for 5 biggest minute lineups over previous 5 games. But still lineup management issues.

Do you really need 92 different lineups to play 5 games? No. That is up about 20% from previous 5 games. It should go down 50% or more. Only one lineup used in 3 games. Mostly dinks and dinks played only once. Still very random. Only one lineup over 18 minutes for period. Dink and not much bigger, veering from one to the other. Very little with even a modest track record to look at.

At quad and trio level, things are much better and more sensible. The right imo 6 guys have all the spots in biggest 6 minute quads and biggest 10 trios and they've done well. Stevens still experimenting with how to use them as 5 man lineups (probably too much) but he has given priority to using them over others. An improvement but only part way to the ideal.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Tue Dec 04, 2018 3:57 am

The Bulls situation is super messed up and pretty hopeless short-term and longer term but this is what I'd do:

Play Ryan A. LaVine Holiday Markkanen Carter 24 minutes per game. 3 lineups with 3 of them about 4 each to keep working on this core. Play 12 minutes of all subs. The subs are playing for the right to be retained as a sub.

Zero chance Parker stays. Trade Parker for almost anything. Probably same with Dunn but give him 10-20 games to try to be an effective backup PG. Trade LaVine if you can but you could keep him for awhile for tank / draft considerations.

Try to get a combo guard who passes and can shoot. And a PF who defends, rebounds. Vet or rookie contract? I dunno, depends what you can get.

Assume 3-5 years to become decent.

Markannen and Carter are not locked in or untouchable but try to make it work until proven that you can't play the combo.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:01 am

Spurs should imo trade for a more impactful PG for this season or trade all the old guys and rebuild next season around Murray & Poetl.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:21 am

Magic either need to trade 1 or more wings to fit with Augustin Gordon Vucevic; or, if they don't expect to retain Vucevic, tear it completely down and trade any and everybody.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Tue Dec 04, 2018 11:56 pm

Currently there are 6 teams playoff seeded that didn't make it last time and 6 who were that are currently out. The number will probably drop but be more than I expected. Only the Spurs have a major injury argument for the fall-off.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Wed Dec 05, 2018 12:04 am

Crow wrote:
Tue May 29, 2018 3:53 pm
Re: matching up and competing with Warriors
https://twitter.com/bballstrategy/statu ... 2637872129
Bucks and Raptors are strong, but not especially on the criteria identified here.

Thunder, Nuggets and Pelicans have pretty good strength on the specific criteria and overall.

I am not picking the contender most capable of beating Warriors yet. Maybe later.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Wed Dec 05, 2018 12:21 am

Expected "not much improvement" from Celtics in this season and so far that is true, though they have done less than that.

Crow
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Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Wed Dec 05, 2018 12:33 am

Crow wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 4:21 am
What result halfway thru season would be bad enough to see John Wall traded or Scotty Brooks fired? Grunfeld skates ahead but will anyone pay a price for not moving forward enough?
Still watching. Will it reach tipping point for either this season? Probably not, but in play.

Crow
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Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Wed Dec 05, 2018 12:35 am

Looking back, another thing I said that seems to on target as of now is Rockets "don't have enough to win a title".

Noticed J Issac's raw on / off has gotten a lot better.

Sixers back to having a great starting lineup.

3 of most used Doncic lineups now positive. An improvement. Stating lineup is still quite bad though.

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