2018-19 season commentary

Home for all your discussion of basketball statistical analysis.
Crow
Posts: 5939
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Fri Dec 14, 2018 5:23 pm

Doncic's 3pt fg% now just 36%, 1 percentage point above league average. 2pr fg% more than 4 percentage points below average. 14% more of his shots come from mid-range than average.

walker_harris3
Posts: 19
Joined: Mon Aug 13, 2018 10:07 pm

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by walker_harris3 » Fri Dec 14, 2018 9:41 pm

De'Aaron Fox is 13th/94 by RPM among PGs so far at +1.89, ahead of Westbrook & John Wall. Lonzo is 46th at -1.18, DSJ 67th at -1.87. Fultz 87th at -2.23. Ntilikina 91st at -4.07. Looking like the best PG from the 2017 draft so far.

Fox was 80th out of 82 point guards in RPM last season at -4.27. That's a +6.16 jump. Haven't looked, but that has to be one of the biggest season-to-season jumps in RPM since it became a stat. If he can sustain this efficiency, should be leading candidate for Most Improved. TS% has steadily improved each month.

Crow
Posts: 5939
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Sat Dec 15, 2018 2:31 am

Yeah, he is a good story now. He was so bad last season I didn't pay attention to him at all. If you improve, congrats.

Mike G
Posts: 4288
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Mike G » Sat Dec 15, 2018 9:21 pm

Luka Doncic is one of the most proficient 3-pt shooting rookies ever. Here are all who have averaged at least 2 makes per game:

Code: Select all

rookie     yr  3s/G  3FG%  eFG%   TS%   Ast%  TRb%
Mitchell  '18   2.4  .340  .506  .541   19.4   6.4
Lillard   '13   2.3  .368  .501  .546   28.8   4.7
Doncic    '19   2.2  .366  .504  .552   22.2  11.5
Markkanen '18   2.1  .362  .518  .552    6.4  13.5
Kuzma     '18   2.1  .366  .527  .549    9.1  10.7
Curry     '10   2.1  .437  .535  .568   24.6   6.8
J Will    '99   2.0  .310  .455  .483   25.2   4.5
Iverson   '97   2.0  .341  .467  .513   33.6   5.6
His Ast% is up there near the point guards. Only Curry (and Lillard barely) hit 3's at higher %, and Doncic rebounds as much as both. Nobody has done all these things better in year 1.

Mike G
Posts: 4288
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Mike G » Sat Dec 15, 2018 9:30 pm

walker_harris3 wrote:
Fri Dec 14, 2018 9:41 pm
... that has to be one of the biggest season-to-season jumps in RPM since it became a stat. If he can sustain this efficiency, should be leading candidate for Most Improved. ..
A few days ago, Fox was this year's most improved (from career avg) in both RPM and PIPM, and by a good margin in each.
He's had only good/great games since.

Crow
Posts: 5939
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Sun Dec 16, 2018 6:33 pm

Doncic's A/TO has crept up from 1.24 to 1 at last check to 1.28. 3/4ths of players are better than 1 to 1. Doncic's A/TO is not impressive. Big role, meh stats. His A/TO is worse than rest of team when on court. Team's A/TO is 25% better when he is off court and others are on. His A/TO is 30% below league average. Team assists overall, but with Doncic in secondary passer role, is about at the 30th percentile. So far, not special there despite the hype of his passing, in fact not close to average.

For players 6-7 and taller (usually with a rebounding role), Doncic is slightly above average for DR% and slightly below average for OR%. Role, meh results. Team DR% slightly better with him on but the OR% by about 8 times as much (10% absolute decline).

On the court team plus minus has broken above neutral finally but is still only plus 0.8 pts / 100 possessions. On /off is still really weak at -6.6 pts / 100. Pts allowed per 100 poss. go up about 3 pts with him on vs off. Team points scored fall by a similar amount. Of course on / off has many moving parts but team being worse on both offense & defense with you vs off isn't encouraging. RPM is improving but still only a fraction of a point positive. Versatile? Yes. As expected to be in his role / self-created playing style. Impactful? Not really, yet. Maybe in a different sized and tuned role, in different lineups he and more importantly team could do better.

Slightly negative player pairs with 3 starters, moderately negative with Smith. Generally good with bench but the bench players are generally good with or without him. He doesn't play that much with bench players.

Whether you call it an ok, good or great start, his performance and team performance with him will have to get better to be a force in the playoffs.

Crow
Posts: 5939
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Mon Dec 17, 2018 3:38 am

Doncic scores 28... on, it appears, 27 possessions used. Average efficiency. Not enough to lift team past Kings who were just a bit above average.

3pt fg% falls a bit for season as the December cold streak continues with a 1 for 5 night.

Both on the court team plus minus and on / off will slip back a bit.

A/TO will improve a small amount but he was just short of having a 2 / 1 night. He has done that in about 22% of games. 2-1 is about the minimum A/TO imo for being notable.

Crow
Posts: 5939
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Mon Dec 17, 2018 7:49 am

In the 10 team race for the final 4 playoff seeds in the west, almost no teams have been "hot" over the last 10 games. The exception is the Mavs but the hot part was the first part of the period. Their success was based on an incredible plus 9.5 net fta advantage per game but also a nice lead on defensive rebounds.

Who gets hot from here? I dunno. Lijely going to be a crowded stretch run where little things take on great importance and some of those little things will be counted as luck and bad luck.

A couple of the coaches might not return if they miss the playoffs. Most will probably survive it. A few might not deserve to.

Dr Positivity
Posts: 297
Joined: Thu Sep 20, 2012 6:44 pm

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Dr Positivity » Tue Dec 18, 2018 3:28 am

I agree that Doncic is more like a league average player right now than a star already. He still has a chance to become a superstar though - just look at Lebron or Durant's rookie seasons, volume scoring but weak advanced stats. A season like Mitchell's last year which wasn't that great in any way but volume, is more worrying as he was 21 and also lacked the track record of Doncic in Europe. I would say the likelihood of Doncic becoming a Joe Johnson level player or more is very high. He is not a guarantee to do better than that though, in worse case scenario he came into the NBA polished and didn't have that much room to grow outside of his current size and skill

Crow
Posts: 5939
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Wed Dec 19, 2018 5:41 pm

Doncic's nearest similars by size and ORPM & DRPM impact splits at this time are TJ Warren and Bojan Bogdanovic (in Indy). Mildly helpful impact on offense, lose part of it on D. Above median player but not much above mean.

Crow
Posts: 5939
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Thu Dec 20, 2018 10:37 pm

Dion Waiter's A/TO lead on Doncic has been cut to just 5%. Doncic's recent games push his A/TO to 1.4. Look out Dion!

Surge coming with D Smith out. Do they go back to old starting lineup and division of roles when he comes back?

Despite the talk about how they fit or could fit, Smith-Doncic is tied for Smith's worst pair of team raw plus minus. But it has competition, 9 of the 10 most used Smith pairs are negative. Brunson, 7 of 10 positive including with Doncic. Are the Suns in the office?

Neither Finney-Smith or Matthews are the long-term answer in the starting lineup but I would go with FInney-Smith based on the pair data. Carlisle has used both when D Smith was active, but a lot more Matthews.

Doncic still has no strong player pairs with starters (unless Finney Smith starts). Positive with almost all parts of the strong bench.

Crow
Posts: 5939
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Fri Dec 21, 2018 3:36 am

LeBron James will pass Michael Jordan on career regular season points in a few weeks. Kobe Bryant, next season. More likely than not will reach the #1 spot. Will he hold it? Will he stay for Bronny... and 40k?

Durant is 3-4 years away from reaching top 10. Curry a few years longer. Harden? (What does his game loom like in 3 years?) Others perhaps, in time. There will be additional 30k achievements but 37k is much harder.

As for the 20k points milestone, there are several within reach. Some will easily clear, some might not or might have to stretch career to get there.

Watched my first Bronny James highlight video. Pretty solid... against junior varsity. Next year will be a more meaningful test against better, older players.

Crow
Posts: 5939
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Fri Dec 21, 2018 4:36 am

Chris Paul injured again. Was last spring the Rockets peak? Long time, big time left on that contract.

Crow
Posts: 5939
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Fri Dec 21, 2018 5:33 am

Doncic, 27 pts on 26 possessions used so far. Rest of team more efficient at scoring when you account for turnovers. 3 assists / 4 turnovers. 4 offensive rebounds, no defensive rebounds. A few minutes left.

Close, but Mavs lose. A few plays short of what was needed.

Doncic with 4 steals.

Last few minutes bring Doncic and rest of team efficiency close together. Team loss. Not enough defense it appears.

Mavs' season has been: cold, cold, hot, hot, hot and now cold. 4th straight loss.

Crow
Posts: 5939
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Sun Dec 23, 2018 7:38 pm

By several measures this is Westbrook's worst offensive season since he was a sophomore or rookie. By several measures it also appears to be the season of his best rated defensive effort.

Post Reply