2018-19 season commentary

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Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Fri Mar 01, 2019 12:11 am

Crow wrote:
Mon Oct 22, 2018 11:45 pm
So far LaVine is negative with his 8 most used player pairs and 6 bad to horrible. -17 per 100 possessions overall. Let's see if Dunn helps. Probably won't solve issue. LaVine has always had a negative raw plus minus. This is his worst yet.

Negative on 9 of 10 most used pairs for season, bad to terrible. But... positive on 5 of top 6 in last 11 games.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Fri Mar 01, 2019 12:18 am

Crow wrote:
Wed Oct 24, 2018 9:04 pm
Is Luke Walton a great, good, average coach or worse? I dunno. But right now just 1 of the Lakers 12 most used lineups is cumulatively positive and just 3 of the top 20. Could you do worse? Maybe. Results so far don't show sufficient insight, command or execution.
Currently 11 of most used 12 positive, 1 not. But less than 30% of the 552 other lineups are cumulatively positive. But will they reduce dink lineup usage? Probably not. Coaches coaching their way.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Fri Mar 01, 2019 12:19 am

Crow wrote:
Fri Jul 13, 2018 5:16 am
For Sixers in regular season most main pairs worked. Among those that didn't, the names McConnell and Saric were most frequent. In playoffs overall almost nothing worked well enough. The only notable pair that worked in playoffs (and regular season) was Embid - Redick. Simmons had some of the worst playoff pairs. So did Saric and Covington. No way they change out Simmons at this point. Saric and Covington? You could rationalize it or give them another go before deciding.

Saric and Covington (and others gone).

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Fri Mar 01, 2019 12:28 am

Crow wrote:
Thu Nov 22, 2018 4:05 am
The DeRozan Gay Aldridge trio is what the Spurs are going to need to go somewhere. They are a moderate plus 5 on court together. For 15 minutes per game. Playoffs should logically get at least 25. If they get there. But so many dink lineups to meander thru til then or even then?

Increased to 18 minutes per game for season but barely above neutral.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Fri Mar 01, 2019 12:38 am

Crow wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 4:33 am
Among the top 20 most used lineup in league, the Rockets' starting unit is the 4th worst performing. Will it change- the lineup or the results?

Ennis traded. Starers with Gordon or Faried only mildly positive. Probably not enough for playoff success.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Fri Mar 01, 2019 12:39 am

Crow wrote:
Sat Dec 08, 2018 5:58 am
Kawhi Leonard's DRPM is worst of his career. Some called his relatively low DRPM in 2016-17 a fluke or, stronger, a failure of DRPM. Well, different team, even bigger issue. Problem more with DRPM or Kawhi? I guess luck adjusted measures would add more numbers to consider.
DRPM negative with 2/3rds of season in.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Sun Mar 03, 2019 3:39 am

I said several times early in the season that the Mavs needed to change out much or all of the starting unit around Doncic. They did. They need to do it again. Brunson, THJ, Dirk and Powell... all but Powell needs to go for sure. But they are probably tanking again without admitting it.

They are super weak on the perimeter, outside Doncic if that it where he is going to play. Frontline is probably set... to try, to seek what works.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Mon Mar 04, 2019 4:07 am

The current starting lineup that earlier saved the Celtics is not working in last 10 games. It could be random, simple player shortfall or maybe opponents have figured it out. Would need to look closer at the data and tape.

There is no immediately obvious alternative. There are some half decent minute lineup performers but they are bench units.

Will look closer at Irving sub-lineup data. Before doing that I'd say the starting lineup choice boils down to replacing Morris or Smart with Hayward or Brown. The season level data says any combination should be good. So try one or more, fast.

Stevens was quoted as resisting starter change before thus latest loss. He really cones across as not definitive this season. I hear lots of players talking about issues but I don't hear them quoting Stevens on anything or expressing confidence in him and his strategies / leadership at all. This house is crumbling. Can it be saved? Yeah it could but it doesn't seem like it will.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Mon Mar 04, 2019 4:15 am

Over last 10 games, all 10 of the team's most used trios are negative. That is pretty bad. What is working that isn't a majority bench unit? Starters with Hayward or Brown. If you haven't figured out how to save the current starters, making one of these changes seems like the most obvious choice.

At pair level, things are almost as bleak. The best big minute pairs are Brown-Hayward, Brown-Tatum, Hayward-Tatum, Hayward-Horford, Brown-Horford, Hayward-Irving.

Irving Brown Hayward Tatum Horford would seem like the top choice to try. How much has it been used in last 1o games,(before today)? 4.4 minutes total.
Did fine for the little that little test is worth. For season it is mildly negative. Only other lineup tested more than 1.4 minutes per game. That is absurd but what you get when you go scattershot with so many dink lineups and just a few above that low threshold. Like coaching / guessing? Welp Brad either turn to #2 most used lineup or make an even less informed guess. If he does something else, it probably should be Brown for Morris or Hayward for Smart.

Current starters generally sucked today on team plus minus. Will look at lineup data when available tomorrow. Based on box score, you'd probably want to take Morris out of starters.

Mike G
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Mike G » Mon Mar 04, 2019 1:13 pm

Ten games ago, evidence suggested using Hayward less. He's still going 26 mpg, his individual numbers have been fine, team is +5 when he's on the floor -- but they're 3-7.
He missed one game in there, and it was one of their best in that stretch, a single point loss in Milwaukee.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Mon Mar 04, 2019 5:08 pm

The current starters were -11 in 12 minutes last night. That was about as bad as you see for a big minute usage.

Stevens and Celtics "won" with 29% of his 21 lineup choices. That was down from his good for coaches 35% for season.

I forgot other options could be Baynes for Horford or alongside Horford. Changing the starters might not change the funk but not changing it either a pretty stubborn gamble and hard to defend. Time is running out.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Mon Mar 04, 2019 5:21 pm

Lakers down to less than 1% projected chance to make playoffs. James looks quite bad as a leader this season from my far away view.

Fire the coach plotters will be busy. It just a matter of how much they fear Jeannie.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Wed Mar 06, 2019 5:18 am

There is a threeway tie for the 3-5 seeds in the west, as of tonight. Hosting the first round vs being on road to 4th. Seems pretty important but team vs. matchups & preferences also matter. The affected teams may value the seeds differently.

Many other seeding details could change with a few game swing. (Most probably won't.) This is just the one that caught by eye at the moment.

walker_harris3
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by walker_harris3 » Wed Mar 06, 2019 10:07 pm

http://www.sportingnews.com/us/nba/news ... zfqw7hhus2 - Interesting article on the Rockets. I'm wondering if they are about to go on a similar run that the 76ers went on to finish off last season. Rockets have a few tough games left but I could easily see them finishing with the 2 seed. They're 5 games back from the Warriors so they'd need at least 15-16 wins to even have a shot at 1st. 3.5 back from Denver who has dropped 3 in a row.

If the benchmark is 55 wins, Houston has to finish 16-2, GS has to finish 11-7, and Denver has to finish 13-6. Houston has both at home, probably their 2 most important games left. Beat Denver and they clinch the tiebreaker.

Warriors are 3-4 since the ASB and 6-8 on the season when one of Curry/Durant/Thompson doesn't play. If GS rests Curry/Durant for 5 total games, and/or if Thompson misses a couple more games, Houston has a pretty decent shot IMO.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Post by Crow » Wed Mar 06, 2019 11:16 pm

The defense is the best yet. Blew up in Jan. but they got it back.

Note: I think I said this about the Rockets.

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