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Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

Posted: Sun Apr 14, 2019 4:43 am
by tarrazu
Yes, thanks Mike G for providing numerous updates throughout the season. Maybe I checked the standings way more than I'd be willing to admit.

Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

Posted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 6:29 am
by vzografos
Well joined the party late (as usual). I'll be watching this thread for now and maybe participate in the 2019/20 season. Albeit just for the regular season.

Was wondering though, your Abs. Err, and RMSE metric are in relation to what exactly?
Are you looking at wins/losses (accuracy) only or also probabilities?

In fact I would appreciate it if someone could explain to me the practical issues of this contest (for next season). We predict wins per team from the regular season right? And the predictions are updated after every game? Where do we submit the predictions?
Also how are the errors calculated? Cummulatively? Or in the end?
Thanks

Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

Posted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:12 pm
by Mike G
Your predictions are set in stone before any games are played, and they are not updated.
Different websites give regularly updated season win projections based on current W-L, MOV, and whatever else. I just use Basketball-Reference.com which regresses pretty heavily toward .500

Some entries are strictly one or more statistical measure of player strength; others use injury status or 'team chemistry' insights. If you have inside information, that may help you win the contest but not really develop a good statistical basis for future analyses.

Rookie contributions are another area that is highly speculative. And you have to guess how many minutes everyone will get. Some of us have tried sticking to a single informed minutes distribution, so that we can better compare the actual analyses rather than player availability or coaching decisions, which are more random.

Hope this helps. Someone will start a 2019-20 thread in the fall, and entries will be compiled before the season starts.

Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

Posted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 1:13 pm
by vzografos
Mike G wrote:
Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:12 pm
Your predictions are set in stone before any games are played, and they are not updated.
I see I get it.

Regarding the error metrics?

Also, are previous winners going to give us some hints/indication of their approach? :mrgreen:

Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

Posted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 2:49 pm
by eminence
Big congrats to tarrazu by the way, really a dominant performance this year.