2018-19 team win projection contest

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kmedved
Posts: 80
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2014 9:18 pm

Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

Post by kmedved » Wed Oct 31, 2018 1:07 am

sndesai1 wrote:
Sat Oct 27, 2018 6:11 pm
Very early rankings

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... IwFv_wPes/

Can you add my projections to the contest? Posted here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... IwFv_wPes/ (and google docs for easy/copy paste here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... edit#gid=0).

Thanks.

Crow
Posts: 5928
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

Post by Crow » Wed Oct 31, 2018 4:15 am

When were these projections created? Any documentation of that date? Reason for posting 2 weeks late?

I'd consider based on these answers.

tarrazu
Posts: 70
Joined: Mon Aug 04, 2014 5:02 pm

Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

Post by tarrazu » Wed Oct 31, 2018 3:33 pm

.
Last edited by tarrazu on Wed Oct 31, 2018 3:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.

tarrazu
Posts: 70
Joined: Mon Aug 04, 2014 5:02 pm

Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

Post by tarrazu » Wed Oct 31, 2018 3:36 pm

Crow wrote:
Wed Oct 31, 2018 4:15 am
When were these projections created? Any documentation of that date? Reason for posting 2 weeks late?

I'd consider based on these answers.
has Houston at 58, so it checks out!

but this posted/timestamped here, so should be fine to add unless someone has a reasonable objection: https://twitter.com/kmedved/status/1052355167574745088

eminence
Posts: 111
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Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

Post by eminence » Wed Oct 31, 2018 3:50 pm

Seems good to me, welcome :)

Jinxed
Posts: 26
Joined: Mon Jun 13, 2011 9:53 pm

Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

Post by Jinxed » Wed Oct 31, 2018 4:32 pm

Seems I'm off to a hot start. Let's see how long I can hold pole position.

Crow
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Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

Post by Crow » Wed Oct 31, 2018 4:49 pm

Ok, thanks tarrazu for the publish link.

kmedved
Posts: 80
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2014 9:18 pm

Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

Post by kmedved » Thu Nov 01, 2018 10:55 pm

Crow wrote:
Wed Oct 31, 2018 4:15 am
When were these projections created? Any documentation of that date? Reason for posting 2 weeks late?

I'd consider based on these answers.
Sorry, I meant to link to the twitter post, which had the timestamp (technically a few minutes after the Celtics/Sixers tipoff). Thanks to tarrazu for clearing up. Appreciate it.

Mike G
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Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

Post by Mike G » Thu Nov 01, 2018 11:10 pm

Well, I have been traveling and not thinking about this much at all; so this year I'll just be an observer.
B-R.com has their Playoff Probabilities Report going now:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/fr ... _prob.html
and relative to their projections, ranked by average 'error':

Code: Select all

avg err       rmse       avg err      rmse
KPel   5.90   7.67      gold   7.19   8.92
AnJo   6.15   8.10      Crow   7.21   9.62
shad   6.40   8.26      J-TF   7.29  10.11
trzu   6.57   7.97      538_   7.51   9.51
cali   6.60   8.72      sndi   7.55   9.40
RyRi   6.68   8.70      Cica   8.15  10.74
emin   6.77   8.79      kmed   8.64  10.66
bbst   6.93   8.42      Rd11   9.45  11.08
Jinx   7.03   9.02            
The Bucks have a 44% chance to win it all!

mtamada
Posts: 161
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:35 pm

Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

Post by mtamada » Fri Nov 02, 2018 7:30 am

The Bucks have a 44% chance to win it all!
Even better, 7 games into the season and they have a 100% chance of making the playoffs!

Those were calculated by Kubatko, right? He does good stuff, but most playoff probability prediction systems fail to regress to the mean enough, and that one does so to an absurd degree. Injuries, such as the concussion that Giannnis recently suffered, can happen at any time to any one.

Jinxed
Posts: 26
Joined: Mon Jun 13, 2011 9:53 pm

Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

Post by Jinxed » Fri Nov 02, 2018 3:25 pm

Is the winner of this contest to be judged by MAE or RMSE?

eminence
Posts: 111
Joined: Sun Sep 10, 2017 8:20 pm

Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

Post by eminence » Fri Nov 02, 2018 5:00 pm

Jinxed wrote:
Fri Nov 02, 2018 3:25 pm
Is the winner of this contest to be judged by MAE or RMSE?
I prefer MAE, but not a big deal either way.

Crow
Posts: 5928
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

Post by Crow » Fri Nov 02, 2018 5:34 pm

It may still be K's methodology (and may still have equity in company) but he is no longer on staff there. With statmuse.

It became a thing to look at winner via different lenses. MAE is my preference but if people want to look at other things, fine, whatever.

sndesai1
Posts: 133
Joined: Fri Mar 08, 2013 10:00 pm

Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

Post by sndesai1 » Sat Nov 03, 2018 1:33 am

i have no pref. let's just say whichever has the most support by sunday is the primary metric for the contest

it's currently MAE-2, RMSE-0



bk-ref projections are ok for regular season wins after a couple months, but there's no informed prior. all that it really seems to use is a team's current srs regressed towards 0 and the remaining schedule, which leads to odd projections early on.

when it comes to the playoff winner projections, there's very little point in continuing to use it. i mean, it's 10+ years old now, so not too surprising that the value is limited

Mike G
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Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

Post by Mike G » Sat Nov 03, 2018 4:13 am

sndesai1 wrote:
Sat Nov 03, 2018 1:33 am
bk-ref projections are ok for regular season wins after a couple months, but there's no informed prior. all that it really seems to use is a team's current srs regressed towards 0 and the remaining schedule, which leads to odd projections early on.
At what point in the season is current SRS + remaining schedule actually a better predictor than what you thought before the season started? Could we be there already?

I stole your spreadsheet. Thanks! Is Pinnacle what we could call Vegas?

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