2018-19 lineup analysis

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Crow
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2018-19 lineup analysis

Post by Crow » Sat Jan 26, 2019 12:29 am

Only a few lineups have been used 10 plus minutes per game for full season. Only about two dozen have been used for 5 minutes per.

85% of the 20 most used lineups are positive for season. For the next 40 it falls to barely over 50%. Then lower to much lower for the rest.

On average teams have used just 2.7 lineups for 100 minutes. About 3/4ths of these lineups have been used in less half the games to date for a mix of reasons. All the good ones could have been used more and should have been. 100 minutes is not much. You would still be guessing how good a lineup is. Better than not checking at all though. Under 100 minutes is more sketchy. Tons of lineups are under 25, even 10 minutes. Coaches are using them heavily and have almost no track record for them. They are addicted to trying dink lineups. Sometimes they'll hit a freak winner but, as noted frequently, 2/3rds or more are non-positive. Some questions that could be worth exploring would be road teams, underdogs or teams trailing or trailing significantly try dink lineups more. That might be worth a try but need to check the results of that vs. bigger minute lineups.

Leaguewide coaches decided to yr 12,310 lineups or about 410 each on average, barely past the halfway mark. Barely 30% are positive. That may be less than previous years. I may check later. On average they have been used in just 2.4 games....

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 lineup analysis

Post by Crow » Sat Feb 02, 2019 8:13 am

How can TWolves have 19 of 20 most used player pairs positive,(and the onl exception barely negative) and still be slightly negative on overall team net points? They must have a lot of bad pairings or some really bad ones and playing them too much. Might look closer later but that is the obvious conclusion. Thibs vs. Saunders data should be looked but at moment I don't care that much.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 lineup analysis

Post by Crow » Sun Feb 03, 2019 6:16 am

Outside the 20 most used TWolves player pairs, 70% are non-positive. Churning their way to also-ran.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 lineup analysis

Post by Crow » Wed Feb 20, 2019 5:34 am

Spurs lineup management analysis:

437 lineups used so far. Just 32% cumulatively positive. 9 non-dink (over the threshold of 1 per game for season), 428 dink to super-dink.

Of 9 most used, they are almost evenly split between great and terrible performers. 4 lineups for 17% of total time, averaging plus 11.3 per 48 minutes. 5 bad lineups for near same amount of time performing at -7.9. Then 66% of time to dink lineups performing at 0.6 pts / 100 poss. So Pops is doing great 1/6th of time, positive 1/3rd of time, meh 2/3rds of time, terrible 1/6th of time (these descriptions include overlaps).

Sum it all up and the Spurs are puttering at plus 1 / 100 possessions. Dangling on edge.

Is that impressive? Not so much. Acceptable? I don't think so. Obviously I'd rethink most of the lineup choices. The dink lineups are good & bad (I'd break that down) but 69% non-positive. I'd probably save a few dink lineups, experiment with giving them more trial. However I'd dump the vast majority of them.

This was quick but you don't see it elsewhere and I offered a judgment. It raises massive questions about lineup management by one of the most successful coaches ever. I could dig deeper and have with other teams. Maybe I will or maybe why bother.



One way you might be able to justify a mixed
lineup pattern would be if the meh to bad lineups somehow set up the strong ones and the grand total results were very good. The dramatic strikes after the chess foreplay. That would take research on lineup matchups and lineup sequencing. I could get into that with an audience, proper incentives and tech help.

It is not the case here though. Plus one in a league with lots of bad and meh teams isn't much of an overall accomplishment.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 lineup analysis

Post by Crow » Fri Mar 01, 2019 12:50 am

Do Lakers go back to their biggest minute lineup as starters when Ball gets back? Probably.But barely above neutral. I'd probably do something different. Very low chances of making playoffs by BRef.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 lineup analysis

Post by Crow » Fri Mar 01, 2019 12:52 am

Basically every top contender has a strong lineup over 200 minutes but the Rockets. Bucks biggest minute lineup is the weakest in that group, though still a strong +9 / 100 poss.

Blazers have 2 of the best. Warriors close behind.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 lineup analysis

Post by Crow » Tue Mar 12, 2019 5:01 am

Clippers starting lineup the last 9 games has been Beverley SGA Shamet Galinari Zubac. Doing great. Plus 16 pts per 100 possessions. 7-2 game outcomes. Something to watch.

SGA has had a modest to weak season generally but has caught fire in first few games of March. Meh to bad player pairs except with huge Centers.

If Clippers get Leonard, they might send one of the guards to bench in succession. Could play 5 of these 6 for a ton of minutes. Lou Williams and Harrell off the bench. Green. Sounds like a pretty nice rotation.

The better team in LA unless Lakers pull off huge gets & changes.

If Clips get Leonard and another free star agent, watch out. Using the formula of stars, solid value vets and rookie contracts. Pretty quick transformation.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 lineup analysis

Post by Crow » Wed Mar 13, 2019 10:16 pm

Blazers with one of the best jobs of lineup management. Most used lineup in league and very good. A handful of other strong lineups add some additional concentration. Broadly positive player pairs. Probably could be even better with more concentration but a couple steps better than the typical watered down dink mess.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 lineup analysis

Post by Crow » Tue Mar 19, 2019 3:02 pm

Hawks' best lineups have Young, Dedmon and Bembry, Collins Huerter. Collins without Dedmon isn't quite as good. Waller-Prince is usually disaster. Bazemore can often be disaster too unless surrounded by these core guys.

The core guys have not been used together near enough. Do they know who the core guys are and aren't? Only one of most used 11 lineups is strong and only other barely over neutral. They have 4 of the core guys. The lineup with all 5 is barely negative. All the best lineups used more than 0.5 minutes per game have 4 of the 5 core guys. Most else is crap and / or distracting.

Play the core, build around the core. Len or Spellman can sub for Dedmon with core but in limited ways. I wouldn't let Dedmon go. Will he be re-signed? Only troubling issue is bad overall data for Young Dedmon pair. May be fixed by playing them more with most or all of core and less in other lineups with more tha one non-core guys.

I'd try to trade Bazemore and Waller-Prince hard and be open to trading / letting go of most others. If Baze and TWP aren't traded they should either be used heavily with core... or heavily without for tanking.

Pierce has used 882 lineups. That is insanity and / or tanking. Only 26% of these lineups have been cumulatively positive for season. If you can't understand that dink lineups are a bad idea / huge problem by now, I guess you just won't "get it". Play 5-20 of the better performing lineups far more until they perhaps no longer deserve it. Straightforward, clearcut imperative. The average Hawks lineup has been used less than 4 minutes FOR SEASON. That is so ridiculous I can't understand how everyone isn't shocked and outraged. But apparently I am one of the few.

Lineups without at least 4 of the 5 core guys appear to perform at -8 per 48 minutes compared to -3.2 with at least 4 of the core or about 250% worse. And yet the lineups without 4 of the core got 59% of the minutes.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 lineup analysis

Post by Crow » Tue Mar 19, 2019 5:15 pm

Do they know their core is those 5 guys? Maybe not or at least they aren't acting that way lately. Prior to last 10 games they played 4 or more of the five 45% of time. In last 10 games just under 20% of time.

It appears that lineups with less than 4 of the core have done well on average lately. I could look further into that. Maybe they have figure out how to run lineups with 3 of the core better. Or beyond that. Didnt know how to do it for vast majority of season. Avoiding having less than 3 on court maybe be worth of 4 or more. That is the next level of research.

The five core guys are still the five core guys. Prince has been better and Carter has contributed. But Len and especially Bazemore have negative raw plus minus. Going forward the core five are still the core five. Prince might be the 6th.

Pierce still using a huge number of dink lineups. 415 lineups in just 10 games. That is not disciplined testing. That is chaos. Half decent chaos but still chaos.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 lineup analysis

Post by Crow » Tue Mar 19, 2019 5:51 pm

What are Hawks doing different in team stats per game in last 10 games compared to previously? Shooting 42 3s game instead of 35 and hitting a bit more. Grabbing 5 more net total rebounds off both backboards. Cut 4 turnovers. Those are the main things.

The changes are coming from expected and unexpected places. The extra rebounds are coming from Dedmon and Young. The 3 attempts from Huerter, Len and Dedmon. The fewer turnovers from lots of places. Not having J Lin anymore probably helps.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 lineup analysis

Post by Crow » Wed Mar 20, 2019 3:46 am

Only half the teams in league have used a lineup for 300 plus minutes, or a bit more than 4 minutes per game for season. Nearly 80% are positive. 2 bad ones were ended with trades (Mavs and Clips). Two are slightly negative (Wizards without Wall and Kings).

Pretty weak imo that half the teams did not identify / utilize a single lineup for more than 4 minutes per game. That is not a high bar. I didnt even Sa it had to be positive, just tried a bit more than lightly. A lot of these teams and coaches probably didnt really even have this as a concrete goal. It is just whatever in the moment and constantly changing.

Teams only average 3.7 lineups used over 100 minutes or about 1.5 minutes per game. 62% of these are positive. About twice as positive as dink lineups.

Even these lineups are fragile and temporary. A number of teams will alter roster in summer in ways to eliminate their best bigger lineups, seemingly with little concern or hesitation.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 lineup analysis

Post by Crow » Thu Mar 21, 2019 11:18 pm

Biggest minute lineups for Rockets and Spurs are barely positive for season. Surge probably coming from elsewhere. Could be a playoff issue. Meh starts are not good.

Pacers play starters with Evans and Matthews equally as much. But... 14 points / 100 possessions better with Evans. Hope they don't continue to use equally in playoffs. Will they?


Kings starters about neutral. Not bad but will need better to get better. Just by development or lineup change?

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 lineup analysis

Post by Crow » Fri Mar 22, 2019 2:56 am

Update: Kings starters with Barnes modestly better than before and modestly positive. Need more time to evaluate. May not be clearcut whether that is "good enough" by end of season.

Crow
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Re: 2018-19 lineup analysis

Post by Crow » Thu Mar 28, 2019 5:11 am

More on Spurs lineup management: https://mobile.twitter.com/bballstrateg ... 061248?p=v

Does Pop know how dependent he is on that one quad? If he does, why is it used so little? If he doesn't...

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