2019 playoffs

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Mike G
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Re: 2019 playoffs

Post by Mike G » Mon May 27, 2019 3:32 pm

The Bucks led the league in DRtg, 5.2 pts/100 better than avg.
Raptors were 5th best, 3.3 better than avg.

Supposing the playoff rotations are shorter, games closer, and defense more intense, we might expect their opponents to be roughly 6 to 8 (Mil) and 4 to 6 (Tor) below their season ORtg?

Code: Select all

Bucks/opp.            
ORtg    RS     vsMil    diff
Det    109.0    98.0   -11.0
Bos    112.2   104.4    -7.8
Tor    113.1   107.7    -5.4
            
Raptors/opp.            
ORtg    RS     vsTor    diff
Orl    108.9    96.3   -12.6
Phl    112.6    98.9   -13.7
Mil    113.8   106.7    -7.1
Mil on avg held opponents 8 pts below their season ORtg; Tor is at -11 pts/100 on D.

Crow
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Re: 2019 playoffs

Post by Crow » Mon May 27, 2019 5:44 pm

Raptors probably need their best offensive series of the playoffs to have a chance to win. And probably help force the Warriors into their worst.

Warriors have improved defensive rating by about 5 points / 100 possessions each series in this playoffs. How much is them vs the opponent is not simple to say.

shadow
Posts: 220
Joined: Fri May 29, 2015 3:38 am

Re: 2019 playoffs

Post by shadow » Fri May 31, 2019 7:34 pm

Playoff RAPM updated through first game of Finals.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... ingle=true

4 of the top 6 in ORAPM are Warriors (Curry, Looney, Iguodala, Green)

Klay Thompson currently rated as worst defender in the entire playoffs. Iguodala not far behind at 190th out of 212.

Crow
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Re: 2019 playoffs

Post by Crow » Fri May 31, 2019 11:59 pm

How much will Looney get paid? I dunno. But I'd try pretty darn hard to be the top bid.

Harden, 23rd highest.

Drummond, lowest RAPM estimate. D Russell 2nd lowest. If Pistons don't try to trade Drummond, it is a mistake, If Nets re-sign Russell, it is a mistake.

And so on.

Mike G
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Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2019 playoffs

Post by Mike G » Sat Jun 01, 2019 1:24 pm

shadow wrote:
Fri May 31, 2019 7:34 pm
Playoff RAPM updated through first game of Finals.
...
Klay Thompson currently rated as worst defender in the entire playoffs...
Kinda hard to believe this, but maybe he's also close to worst on offense too?
Using these pages, I find just 4 GSW lineups -- with Klay - and - the other 4 teammates without him -- for more than 3 minutes:
http://bkref.com/tiny/a7Qny

Code: Select all

 w/wo Klay Thompson          wMP  woMP  w+/-  wo+/-  0n-off
curry,durant,green,iguodala  164   31    2.1   77.1   -75.1
curry,green,iguodala,looney   81   57    8.3   49.5   -41.2
curry,durant,green,looney     36   47   36.5   44.9    -8.4t
curry,green,looney,mckinnie   21   66  -18.5   24.7   -43.2
These are per 48 minute net points; no off/def splits. Close to a point per minute MOV, in 200 minutes, with someone other than Klay?

Perhaps there is relief in 4-vs-3 man combinations? More data, less specific to KT. At least 30 min both w. and w.o.

Code: Select all

w/wo Klay Thompson     wMP  woMP  w+/-  wo+/-  on-off
curry,green,iguodala   293   60    4.3   46.8   -42.5
curry,green,looney     147  107   11.1   40.7   -29.6
curry,durant,green     290   47    3.6   44.6   -40.9
durant,green,iguodala  190   37    7.3   73.6   -66.3
green,iguodala,looney  101   63    5.7   51.3   -45.6
curry,iguodala,looney   91   62    9.5   39.3   -29.7
curry,durant,iguodala  167   31    3.2   73.6   -70.4
durant,green,looney     57   55   21.2   40.3   -19.1
curry,green,mckinnie    44   68    0.0   23.9   -23.9
curry,durant,looney     41   48   42.9   43.3    -0.4
curry,green,livingston  41   36   -8.1   49.2   -57.3
...
This is just brutal. They have not a single player less effective than Thompson?
Why does he lead the team in minutes? How can "other" lineups be so limited in their useful minutes?

shadow
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Joined: Fri May 29, 2015 3:38 am

Re: 2019 playoffs

Post by shadow » Tue Jun 04, 2019 6:49 pm

Here's playoff only RAPM for 2015-2019:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... ingle=true

DeRozan manages to overtake Terrance Ross for last place in this latest 5 year playoff only version. DeRozan was second to last in the 2014-2018 version.

Crow
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Re: 2019 playoffs

Post by Crow » Tue Jun 04, 2019 8:23 pm

Do u have a complete 2018-19 regular season RAPM available?

shadow
Posts: 220
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Re: 2019 playoffs

Post by shadow » Tue Jun 04, 2019 8:36 pm


Crow
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Re: 2019 playoffs

Post by Crow » Tue Jun 04, 2019 8:46 pm

Thanks.

That is another option Mike G.

If anyone wanted to put all the available RAPMs together with RPM on one page that would be handy, useful.

Mike G
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Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2019 playoffs

Post by Mike G » Wed Jun 05, 2019 12:52 pm

Warriors opponents in these playoffs have been 53% guards!
Here's the by-position breakdown of how they've done vs GS, relative to all their regular season (per 36 min) rates.

Code: Select all

pos %min   TS%   Sco  Reb   Ast   Stl    TO   Blk   3s   e484  eWins
PG  .27  -.003  -1.6   .8  -2.4  -.27  -.07  -.07  -.10  -.45  -1.14
SG  .36  -.011  -1.7  -.1   -.9   .09   .24  -.04  -.25  -.30  -1.04
SF  .10  -.081  -2.5  -.1   -.4   .10   .50  -.04  -.35  -.40   -.38
PF  .12   .038   1.5   .3    .5  -.17   .25  -.09  -.06   .08    .09
C   .16   .002    .0   .4   -.6  -.06   .27  -.45   .18  -.28   -.42
Scoring rates are relative to 100 points per team, Reb/36 is scaled to 44/G/tm.
All positions have made fewer 3's -- including C, if you exclude Meyers Leonard.
I put Harden in the SG category, since he and Paul both played ~40 mpg.
Each opponent has had just one PF listed; Hou had no SF who played.

If Klay Thompson mostly defends SG and SF, he may have a big role in those positions' seriously underperforming.
PG are also way down, and he covered Lillard quite a bit? And Paul?

eminence
Posts: 141
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Re: 2019 playoffs

Post by eminence » Fri Jun 07, 2019 8:46 pm

Not really sure where to ask, but does anybody have a playoff only rapm for the entirety of the pbp era? Eg '97 through this season?

shadow
Posts: 220
Joined: Fri May 29, 2015 3:38 am

Re: 2019 playoffs

Post by shadow » Fri Jun 07, 2019 11:01 pm

Here's RAPM for playoffs only for 1998 (as in 1997-98 season) through this season:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... ingle=true

I didn't include 1997 because the pbp from NBA.com doesn't include player IDs for that season (or at least it didn't when I pulled the data to generate the matchup files). So at the moment it would result in duplicate players in the output for anyone whose last season wasn't 1997, which is obviously quite a few players.

If I find the motivation to fix the ID issue with 1997 I'll re-run it and update the above link to include that season as well.

Crow
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Re: 2019 playoffs

Post by Crow » Sat Jun 08, 2019 12:04 am

Any estimate on the size of the average errors?


DeRozan with the 4th lowest estimate.

Crow
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Re: 2019 playoffs

Post by Crow » Sat Jun 08, 2019 3:51 am

DeRozan on the court in playoffs, negative every year. Quite bad 5 years running, On/off always negative. Went from mildly bad to terrible to super horrendous. RAPM does not look like a fluke.

Spurs couldn't get better or misread? Bad look either way.

Aldridge's playoff plus minus and on /off mostly bad too, from mild to awful.

Do they ever win a playoff series with this duo? I highly doubt it. Doesn't seem like it wlll be led by them,
Yeah they got close this time. But I'd still say it is less likely they win a series than not.

eminence
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Joined: Sun Sep 10, 2017 8:20 pm

Re: 2019 playoffs

Post by eminence » Sun Jun 09, 2019 7:34 pm

Thank you much shadow! Very nice of you :)

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