2019 Draft

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Crow
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2019 Draft

Post by Crow » Sun Mar 17, 2019 6:47 am

There should be a thread on this. So now there is.

I haven't looked at specific players hardly at all yet.

But I'll float a couple of ideas and comments.

If I simplified and generalized what I'd mainly be looking for in the draft, it might be: 1) Guards / Wings who are ideally triple threats on offense (drive, 3 pt, pass. 2 at minimum for lower picks) and not terrible on defense, 2) Big Wings / Forwards who are good on at least 2 of these 3 offensive elements (or offensive rebounding) and at least average on defense and 3) Bigs good on defense and at least one, preferably two of these 4 offensive elements (or any non-bigs that meet these criteria).

There is a tendency to look at the prospects first and see what they do and don't do well; but I think right now I'd want to start with these criteria and see who fits them or not and then consider exceptions. Agree or not? If you are willing to accept this approach, which players in your opinion fit or don't fit these criteria? Who would you want anyways and how strongly do you feel that way?


Which draft resources do you consider most useful right now? Some from last season seem like they are dead or far less than they were.

Crow
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Re: 2019 Draft

Post by Crow » Fri Mar 22, 2019 4:08 am

Get a great guy / great fit; or if not super excited and can get decent compensation, trade down, trade down or out.

eminence
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Re: 2019 Draft

Post by eminence » Fri Mar 22, 2019 4:36 am

Higher/mid lotto seems like a great spot to look for trade downs this season. Most of the guys I'm kind of liking in this draft are looking like they'll go mid-first or later. I'll have to put together at least a lottos worth of guys sometimes. Zion really is something though, pretty dang unique player.

DSMok1
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Re: 2019 Draft

Post by DSMok1 » Fri Mar 22, 2019 4:18 pm

A rough draft model, based on BPM with modification based on Assists and Usage (positive) and blocks (negative), plus an adjustment for class, gives the following:

Code: Select all

Year Rk  Rk   Player                  Class  Season Pos    School              OBPM    DBPM    BPM   Draft BPM
   1      4   Kyrie Irving            FR     2010-11G      Duke                10.8    3.5     14.3     0.2
   2     22   Javon McCrea            FR     2010-11F      Buffalo             5.1     5.8     10.9    -1.6
   3     31   Kemba Walker            JR     2010-11G      Connecticut         10.2    2.7     12.9    -1.8
   4     42   Derrick Williams        SO     2010-11F      Arizona             9.2     2.6     11.8    -2.0
   5     45   Tristan Thompson        FR     2010-11F      Texas               3.9     7.2     11.1    -2.1
   6     59   Draymond Green          JR     2010-11F      Michigan State      6.3     7.3     13.6    -2.3
   7     75   Jordan Hamilton         SO     2010-11G      Texas               7.2     3.3     10.4    -2.6
   8     82   Jared Sullinger         FR     2010-11F      Ohio State          5.6     3.5     9.1     -2.6
   9     101  Jordan Taylor           JR     2010-11G      Wisconsin           10.8     1      11.8    -2.9
  10     142  Markieff Morris         JR     2010-11C      Kansas              6.7     5.6     12.3    -3.2
Year Rk  Rk   Player                  Class  Season Pos    School              OBPM    DBPM    BPM   Draft BPM
   1      2   Anthony Davis           FR     2011-12F      Kentucky            7.8     10.8    18.7     1.1
   2     18   Cody Zeller             FR     2011-12F      Indiana             8.3     4.2     12.5    -1.2
   3     54   Jared Sullinger         SO     2011-12F      Ohio State          6.3     5.3     11.6    -2.3
   4     96   Tony Mitchell           FR     2011-12F      North Texas          3      6.5     9.4     -2.8
   5     98   Branden Dawson          FR     2011-12G      Michigan State       4      5.8     9.8     -2.8
   6     111  Will Barton             SO     2011-12G      Memphis             6.7     3.6     10.4    -3.0
   7     126  Dion Waiters            SO     2011-12G      Syracuse            7.4     2.4     9.8     -3.1
   8     129  Jae Crowder             SR     2011-12F      Marquette           8.8     5.9     14.7    -3.1
   9     147  Bradley Beal            FR     2011-12G      Florida             5.3     3.3     8.6     -3.2
  10     149  Michael Kidd-Gilchrist  FR     2011-12F      Kentucky             5      4.1     9.1     -3.2
Year Rk  Rk   Player                  Class  Season Pos    School              OBPM    DBPM    BPM   Draft BPM
   1     11   Marcus Smart            FR     2012-13G      Oklahoma State      5.4     6.7      12     -0.8
   2     14   Nerlens Noel            FR     2012-13F      Kentucky            2.9     11.7    14.6    -1.0
   3     15   Victor Oladipo          JR     2012-13G      Indiana             9.7     7.3      17     -1.0
   4     21   Trey Burke              SO     2012-13G      Michigan            9.9     2.3     12.2    -1.6
   5     25   Otto Porter             SO     2012-13F      Georgetown          7.2     6.1     13.3    -1.7
   6     29   Kentavious Caldwell-PopeSO     2012-13G      Georgia             8.9     3.2     12.1    -1.7
   7     40   Kelly Olynyk            JR     2012-13F      Gonzaga             8.7     4.7     13.4    -2.0
   8     51   P.J. Hairston           SO     2012-13G      North Carolina      10.1    1.6     11.7    -2.2
   9     55   Sam Dekker              FR     2012-13F      Wisconsin           6.8     3.6     10.4    -2.3
  10     60   Ben McLemore            FR     2012-13G      Kansas              7.3     2.9     10.2    -2.3
Year Rk  Rk   Player                  Class  Season Pos    School              OBPM    DBPM    BPM   Draft BPM
   1      8   Joel Embiid             FR     2013-14C      Kansas              4.7     10.2    14.9    -0.2
   2     13   Marcus Smart            SO     2013-14G      Oklahoma State       8      5.5     13.5    -0.9
   3     41   Jordan Adams            SO     2013-14G      UCLA                8.7     3.3      12     -2.0
   4     47   Willie Cauley-Stein     SO     2013-14F      Kentucky            4.1     10.8    14.9    -2.2
   5     73   K.J. McDaniels          JR     2013-14F      Clemson             5.6     7.3     12.9    -2.5
   6     81   Mitch McGary            SO     2013-14F      Michigan            4.7     7.2     11.9    -2.6
   7     89   Kyle Anderson           SO     2013-14G      UCLA                4.7     6.2     10.8    -2.7
   8     91   Aaron Gordon            FR     2013-14F      Arizona             2.8     6.7     9.6     -2.7
   9     95   Rondae Hollis-Jefferson FR     2013-14F      Arizona             3.1     7.1     10.2    -2.8
  10     102  T.J. Warren             SO     2013-14F      North Carolina Sta  8.3     0.5     8.8     -2.9
Year Rk  Rk   Player                  Class  Season Pos    School              OBPM    DBPM    BPM   Draft BPM
   1      3   Karl-Anthony Towns      FR     2014-15F      Kentucky            6.5     10.8    17.3     1.1
   2     10   D'Angelo Russell        FR     2014-15G      Ohio State          8.7      3      11.7    -0.7
   3     26   Jahlil Okafor           FR     2014-15C      Duke                6.8     4.1     10.9    -1.7
   4     28   Kris Dunn               SO     2014-15G      Providence          6.7     5.1     11.8    -1.7
   5     39   Stanley Johnson         FR     2014-15F      Arizona             4.8     5.4     10.2    -2.0
   6     48   Delon Wright            SR     2014-15G      Utah                8.8     7.4     16.2    -2.2
   7     52   Frank Kaminsky          SR     2014-15C      Wisconsin           9.5     5.8     15.3    -2.2
   8     56   Justise Winslow         FR     2014-15F      Duke                5.1     5.3     10.4    -2.3
   9     72   Jakob Poeltl            FR     2014-15F      Utah                3.5     7.2     10.7    -2.5
  10     97   Willie Cauley-Stein     JR     2014-15F      Kentucky            4.7      10     14.7    -2.8
Year Rk  Rk   Player                  Class  Season Pos    School              OBPM    DBPM    BPM   Draft BPM
   1     17   Ben Simmons             FR     2015-16F      Louisiana State     6.3     5.3     11.6    -1.2
   2     19   Denzel Valentine        SR     2015-16G      Michigan State      12.2    4.4     16.5    -1.3
   3     37   Chinanu Onuaku          SO     2015-16F      Louisville          3.6     10.2    13.9    -1.9
   4     65   Jamal Murray            FR     2015-16G      Kentucky            8.1     1.1     9.1     -2.4
   5     67   Tyler Davis             FR     2015-16C      Texas A&M           4.9     5.7     10.6    -2.4
   6     85   Jakob Poeltl            SO     2015-16F      Utah                6.8     4.4     11.2    -2.6
   7     88   Mikal Bridges           FR     2015-16F      Villanova           5.2     6.3     11.5    -2.7
   8     93   Ethan Happ              FR     2015-16F      Wisconsin           2.4     6.8     9.2     -2.7
   9     116  Thomas Walkup           SR     2015-16G      Stephen F. Austin   9.3     4.7     14.1    -3.0
  10     122  Kris Dunn               JR     2015-16G      Providence          5.6     5.7     11.3    -3.0
Year Rk  Rk   Player                  Class  Season Pos    School              OBPM    DBPM    BPM   Draft BPM
   1      7   Ethan Happ              SO     2016-17F      Wisconsin           6.5     9.3     15.8    -0.1
   2     23   Josh Jackson            FR     2016-17G      Kansas              5.1     5.7     10.7    -1.6
   3     24   Lonzo Ball              FR     2016-17G      UCLA                8.7     3.5     12.2    -1.7
   4     27   Sindarius Thornwell     SR     2016-17G      South Carolina      9.5     6.7     16.2    -1.7
   5     34   Markelle Fultz          FR     2016-17G      Washington          7.7     1.4     9.1     -1.9
   6     50   Miles Bridges           FR     2016-17G      Michigan State      4.8     4.9     9.7     -2.2
   7     63   De'Aaron Fox            FR     2016-17G      Kentucky            5.1     3.7     8.7     -2.4
   8     64   Justin Patton           FR     2016-17C      Creighton           4.4     6.2     10.6    -2.4
   9     68   Donovan Mitchell        SO     2016-17G      Louisville          6.8     4.8     11.6    -2.4
  10     70   Jonathan Isaac          FR     2016-17F      Florida State       4.7     6.2     10.9    -2.5
Year Rk  Rk   Player                  Class  Season Pos    School              OBPM    DBPM    BPM   Draft BPM
   1      5   Trae Young              FR     2017-18G      Oklahoma            11.2    0.5     11.7     0.2
   2      6   Jaren Jackson Jr.       FR     2017-18F      Michigan State      5.1     10.3    15.4     0.0
   3     12   Wendell Carter Jr.      FR     2017-18F      Duke                 6      7.5     13.5    -0.8
   4     30   Deandre Ayton           FR     2017-18F      Arizona             6.8      4      10.9    -1.8
   5     33   Marvin Bagley III       FR     2017-18F      Duke                7.7      3      10.7    -1.9
   6     36   Zhaire Smith            FR     2017-18G      Texas Tech          5.7     6.4      12     -1.9
   7     38   Jontay Porter           FR     2017-18F      Missouri            3.6     7.5     11.1    -2.0
   8     49   Ethan Happ              JR     2017-18F      Wisconsin           5.3     6.5     11.8    -2.2
   9     57   Mohamed Bamba           FR     2017-18F      Texas               2.4     8.9     11.2    -2.3
  10     100  Shai Gilgeous-Alexander FR     2017-18G      Kentucky            5.5     3.6     9.1     -2.8
Year Rk  Rk   Player                  Class  Season Pos    School              OBPM    DBPM    BPM   Draft BPM
   1      1   Zion Williamson         FR     2018-19F      Duke                13.3    7.8     21.1     3.6
   2      9   Brandon Clarke          JR     2018-19F      Gonzaga             8.8     9.7     18.5    -0.3
   3     16   Bol Bol                 FR     2018-19C      Oregon              4.3     6.8     11.1    -1.1
   4     20   Xavier Tillman          SO     2018-19F      Michigan State      6.1     8.9      15     -1.4
   5     32   Tristan Clark           SO     2018-19F      Baylor              7.1     7.1     14.2    -1.8
   6     35   Jarrett Culver          SO     2018-19G      Texas Tech          6.1     5.1     11.2    -1.9
   7     43   Ethan Happ              SR     2018-19F      Wisconsin            5      9.3     14.3    -2.0
   8     44   Ja Morant               SO     2018-19G      Murray State        7.7     2.2     9.9     -2.1
   9     46   Grant Williams          JR     2018-19F      Tennessee           8.8     5.1     13.9    -2.2
  10     53   Bruno Fernando          SO     2018-19F      Maryland             5      7.6     12.6    -2.3
Zion is extraordinary, in a level above the Anthony Davis/ KAT tier. (The third tier was Kyrie, Trae, JJJ, Happ as SO, Embiid, and Brandon Clarke this year).
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eminence
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Re: 2019 Draft

Post by eminence » Fri Mar 22, 2019 5:21 pm

I've never tried to put together an actual draft model, but just off eye test and a glance at the stats I'd have him 2nd or 3rd in the last decade or so. AD #1 and debating with Luka.

Crow
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Re: 2019 Draft

Post by Crow » Sun Mar 24, 2019 3:26 pm

By rookie stats, Doncic is pretty similar to rookies Grant Hill and
Tyreke Evans. Those are different paths forward and not the only ones.

Crow
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Re: 2019 Draft

Post by Crow » Thu Mar 28, 2019 5:28 am

I read Kevin O'Connor's draft guide to top 15 prospects and wasn't very attracted to any of the players beyond Zion. Maybe he was most honest about each players flaws than some other draft media. Not a lot of solid defenders. I haven't watched much video yet. They all sound like down the road projects. Probably true. Some teams have to try to develop, wait and hope. I was looking for plug n play. Will probably look deeper in draft later. So few bigs on top of his list.

Crow
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Re: 2019 Draft

Post by Crow » Fri Mar 29, 2019 2:25 am

Brandon Clarke is interesting. Something like Aaron Gordon.

eminence
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Re: 2019 Draft

Post by eminence » Fri Mar 29, 2019 2:09 pm

I can see the size/athleticism comparison for Clarke/Gordon, but in roles I think they're fairly different. I don't remember Gordon as a prospect really, but Clarke has a defensive feel that's pretty elite.

Crow
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Re: 2019 Draft

Post by Crow » Fri Mar 29, 2019 2:37 pm

I can't remember if draft "experts" said Gordon was a good defender in college or just had potential. Clarke may be better at that or just more interested. He hasn't played a lot of top talent, part of the Gozanga story.

The Magic imagined a bigger offensive role for Gordon and in 5 years it hasn't really worked. He is still a below average shooter. Slightly below average scorer on too big, too privileged and high usage level. Gordon probably should have a role close to what Clarke is likely to have, should have.
Can Clarke develop a half decent, low to moderate frequency 3pt game? I dunno. More likely yes than no, I'd assume.

Crow
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Re: 2019 Draft

Post by Crow » Sat Apr 06, 2019 1:18 am

Anybody know who created tankathon.com?

Crow
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Re: 2019 Draft

Post by Crow » Sat Apr 06, 2019 4:37 pm

I accept that Zion is special but would want to see / hear more about games where he faced draft ranked bigs over 240 pounds. Who has a better chance against him inside, the strong or the quick or does it take both? I'll have to look closer but a lot of his stats are not special. The efg% is, from inside shots. The rebounding might be. Blocks and steals good. Most of the rest doesn't look special, at this time.

In the tournament did Tacko Fall guard him any? How good is Blackshear? Would you say Mich St. bigs contained him?

How much did he play center? How is that different from him at PF?

Crow
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Re: 2019 Draft

Post by Crow » Sat Apr 06, 2019 5:19 pm

Watched some video. Speed and length needed to guard. Strength is good too of course but wouldn't be enough alone.

Crow
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Re: 2019 Draft

Post by Crow » Sat Apr 06, 2019 5:38 pm

How would Jimmy Butler do guarding him? Will LeBron take the matchup, seek it or avoid it? Draymond? Capela? Gobert? A. Davis, Towns, Milsap? Whiteside? Leonard? Embid? Horford? Siakam? Nance, MKG, Anuoby, Griffin, Aldridge, George, Aminu, Tucker, etc. ?

Guarding him probably wont really matter that much for 3-5 years, depending on if team he goes to is competent. But eventually teams will need a guy who can do better than average guarding him or more likely a good defensive denial or blitz routine and a rim protector. Or maybe you use a series of tough bench guys for much of the game. Mix it up, hack. Save the stars to defend at the end.

We might see stats take days off rather than guard him. Or altered substitution patterns.

May need to break out the Shaq tape for defensive ideas.

I'd probably look at tape of college defensive linemen (especially ends) who were good high school basketball players. Might find someone worth considering for a role.

Crow
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Re: 2019 Draft

Post by Crow » Sun Apr 07, 2019 9:19 pm

Early likes among top tier: Clarke, Hunter, G Williams, Alexander-Walker. Lots of guys I don't think are attractive at their mock draft pick level. Many teams should consider trading down.

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