2019 Draft

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Crow
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Re: 2019 Draft

Post by Crow » Fri Apr 19, 2019 9:13 pm

Presumably GMs want long term overall impact from draftees.

In Trae Young, Schlenk got immediate points and assists and weak RPM.
In Bagley, Divac got immediate pts and rebs and kinda weak RPM.
In Sexton, Altman got immediate points and lousy BPM and RPM.
In Knox, Mills / Perry got moderate points and super lousy BPM and RPM.

Will they get what they should want in the end? Probably not in at least half these cases. Up to all.

What worked best immediately in last draft besides Doncic? Centers. Wings who could defend. Will those be the guys who work the best in the long run. I dunno. Probably for this class.

2019 draft class lighter on top bigs. Plenty of wings. Some defend, some not really. Lots of guys who played more / better offense than defense but many won't be as prominent on offense n NBA.

Crow
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Re: 2019 Draft

Post by Crow » Wed May 15, 2019 10:19 am

I am not buying a real high ceiling for Barrett. I don't know a lot but what I do see leads my gut to think that the optimistic ceiling projections are too high or way too high. Harden? Don't think that should be suggested.

RyanRiot
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Re: 2019 Draft

Post by RyanRiot » Wed May 15, 2019 2:29 pm

Crow wrote:
Wed May 15, 2019 10:19 am
I am not buying a real high ceiling for Barrett. I don't know a lot but what I do see leads my gut to think that the optimistic ceiling projections are too high or way too high. Harden? Don't think that should be suggested.
I just don't like Barrett as a prospect at all. Pelton has him 31st by his stats-only projections.

Crow
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Re: 2019 Draft

Post by Crow » Wed May 15, 2019 5:53 pm

Barrett comparison: Young Jimmy Butler on offense, but with just average defensive skill & effort (outside rebounding)?

Crow
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Re: 2019 Draft

Post by Crow » Sun May 19, 2019 12:42 am

Morant is #2? That seems likely. Will he prove to be the 2nd best pro over the first part of his career or the whole thing? It would not surprise if he is not and it may not be close by RPM and BPM. I am not sure who will be 2nd best. Might be a frontline player. GMs seem to get too excited about perimeter players.

So let's see... he is thinner than Cam Payne (15 pounds thinner by listed college size. Both 6-3.) , didn't shoot the 3 as well in his final year or the first one either and had a bit worse A/TO and steal rate. Way more FTs and rebounds. Others he could be compared against besides his fellow MSU Racer. But they did probably play similar level of competition. Different coaches though. Close to same regular season records in final year.

Crow
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Re: 2019 Draft

Post by Crow » Sun May 19, 2019 4:47 am

I am planning on looking closer at Hayes. Samanic, Bone, Edwards, Cam Johnson, Bazley.

I am not saying they are the best. Just worth knowing better.

Crow
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Re: 2019 Draft

Post by Crow » Fri May 24, 2019 5:24 am

There isn't that much height is this draft but there are 14 players in the Stepien rankings who are listed at 220 plus pounds. Only 9 on their rankings last season. How many of these will play PF? For the 2018 it was 8 a lot and KBP maybe a little. In this class it is probably 11-13.

Average weight in league overall peaked at 223 from 2010-11 to 2013-4. It fell to 218 this season, the lowest since 2001-2. Will it go lower? Probably. 1991-2 was last time it was below 210. It probably won't go that low anytime soon. There probably is more incentive to list weight lower than actual than higher right now.

eminence
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Re: 2019 Draft

Post by eminence » Sat May 25, 2019 8:29 pm

Here's a rough tiering of guys I like as prospects. Leaving off internationals and Garland as I don't feel I've caught enough of them to accurately judge at all.

Tier 1
Zion

Tier 2
Culver
Hunter
Washington
Williams

Tier 3
Edwards
Morant
White
Alexander-Walker
Barrett
Horton-Tucker
Thybulle
Clarke
Bol

Crow
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Re: 2019 Draft

Post by Crow » Sat May 25, 2019 10:59 pm

That is an aggressive ranking for Grant Williams (assuming it is Grant). I see him ranked from mid-20s to mid-30s at some popular sites.

Do you see him at peak as a starting caliber center or power forward or a backup? What undersized big do you think he is similar too or better than?


You are quite above these other sites on Edwards, Horton-Tucker and Thybulle too. Would you say you are really high on them and / or not impressed with many of the other names in the mid-first range?

What things you think you score them more highly on that consensus? Might be hard to say. Simpler to just say what you really like.

Are there guys you expected to go in tier 2 and 3 that are missing because you don't "like them" or is everyone else tier 4 or lower?

eminence
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Re: 2019 Draft

Post by eminence » Sun May 26, 2019 1:05 am

Yep, that's Grant. I see him as a starting 4 someday, might have enough weight to play some 5, but I'd be surprised full time. Reminds me a bit of a Trevor Booker. Not as bouncy and more skill to his game but mostly just a high energy smaller big who can do a bit of everything. Maybe current Thaddeus Young as a bit of a higher end comp?

Positives for the other 3 mentioned:
-Edwards can really really shoot it from deep. Could be a good enough skill that everything else just doesn't really matter. Can catch it and let fly or generate his own shot. Boom or bust, but if you told me he wound up an Allstar I wouldn't be all that surprised.
-Horton-Tucker, just super intrigued by that unique frame. Think he could have a couple avenues to success as either a super sized guard or a high skill forward. His extreme youth doesn't hurt either.
-Thybulle seems like a pretty safe pick. Decent bet to shoot it and good defensive instincts from what I can tell. Tough to tell which college guys wind up being the real disruptive perimeter guys, but I'd say there's a chance at least.

The main two guys I'm not all that high on that most other places seem to have clearly in the lotto (other than the internationals/Garland which I'm not ranking) are Reddish/Hayes. Reddish could be a solid 3/D guy I think, but to me it seems like he's hearing all the wrong sorts of things from scouts/trainers. I don't think there's any real chance he becomes a creator in the NBA. Seems like a recipe for tough times to me. If the right team gets him and he really gets a chance to focus on his D/shooting then I'd feel good about him in tier 3. Hayes I dunno I guess, just seems like arguably the most promising of a bunch of mediocre rim runners to me, think he's gotten overrated due to a lack of positional competition.

Crow
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Re: 2019 Draft

Post by Crow » Sun May 26, 2019 4:39 pm

At the moment I am not strongly aligned with your 4 big move ups. But I barely know anything about this draft class. I like Grant Williams some, though probably not at real high pick #. I have not tried a full sort of draftees in to a mock and won't. Skepticism is easier than a strong buy signal.

Crow
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Re: 2019 Draft

Post by Crow » Tue Jun 04, 2019 1:36 am

What position will Horton - Tucker play (offense and defense) and what would be best? Of course it depends on which team takes him and what else they have but I think this will be important.

Anybody else have interest in Jalen McDaniels? How high should he go?

Crow
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Re: 2019 Draft

Post by Crow » Tue Jun 04, 2019 3:38 am

How high should Sekou Doumbouya go?

At some sites, I see him at 9-15. I haven't seen his full stats yet but I like the video. I might gamble and take him high.

My 15 minute, what the heck call: If I had what the Suns wanted (within reason, not super crazy) to get him at #6 I'd think about doing it, if necessary to get him. I might go up even further. Of course I'd check to see what the guys who have studied him 150+ hours think first.

I didn't expect to take this view. I thought I'd check him and see if he even deserved mid-first round.

Crow
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Re: 2019 Draft

Post by Crow » Wed Jun 05, 2019 6:15 am

I'd do a double take on any player over 240 pounds. Not an absolute barrier but it is generally a minus imo.

Crow
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Re: 2019 Draft

Post by Crow » Wed Jun 05, 2019 6:19 am

Jalen McDaniels is not a big. He is a SF.

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