Early 2019-2020 season commentary

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Crow
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Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Post by Crow » Sun Mar 17, 2019 7:15 am

Looking at the conferences and who is currently playoff seeded, I'd say next season there is one team in each that is more likely than others to fall out of playoff level next season. Magic in East, Spurs in West. And two teams each that are the most likely to replace them. Heat and Hornets. And Kings and Lakers.

I won't try to pick rises and falls within the playoff tier, yet.

Crow
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Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Post by Crow » Tue Mar 19, 2019 5:16 am

Are the Nets going to be better next season?

It is not a certainty. Obviously a lot depends on free agent signings. They are probably going to have a lot of turnover. With Russell at his best, it is still highly questionable if he will be a good re-signing at a high price. They are only 9th in East on SRS and will likely face more competition to make playoffs next season. Who are they going to pass? Maybe Pistons. But it will be a battle.

Crow
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Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Post by Crow » Wed Mar 20, 2019 4:15 am

Assuming Leonard goes to Clippers, how much does that change them? 10th best offense right now. It might improve a few spots but I'd be somewhat surprised if it moved into top 5. Defense is 19th. I doubt that improves much beyond 15th for season. Leonard might have some key games and big moments on D but I'm not buying that he is the same as a few years ago.

Do they get a top 4 seed next spring? It is possible but it will be highly contested.

Of course if they get 2 star free agents, things could go higher. If they compliment each other and fit with what is already there. Including Doc. Good prospects but it is not simple or sure.

Crow
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Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Post by Crow » Wed Mar 20, 2019 4:36 am

About 1/3rd of the league GMs have been GMs in more than one place. I think retreads were probably more common in recent past but that is just a guess. Getting a second chance may stay pretty difficult. A number of recent fires probably aren't going to get one, or least anytime soon.

Crow
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Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Post by Crow » Sun Mar 24, 2019 5:00 am

There are about 10 teams who might start next season with a new coach, or end with a new one or may bring a new one in summer of 2020. I know that is kind of a broad time span but it is a result of uncertainty how pro-active teams will be. Can be reasons to wait but if you are not confident you have the right coach for 2020-21 and beyond, you might want to make a move sooner than later.

Almost same numbers for GMs but will probably be less actual attrition in next 15 months.

Crow
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Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Post by Crow » Sun Mar 24, 2019 2:25 pm

Cavs probably looking at 3-5 years before back in playoffs (or more). Competition ahead of them. Not great young core picks so far. A lot with depend on future lottery luck (more unusual success?) and the quality of future picks. I guess they'll have free agent money sometime soon. Will someone overpay for Love? I doubt it but who knows what a GM will do

Crow
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Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Post by Crow » Tue Mar 26, 2019 4:03 pm

Griz are by far the worst team with a minutes weighted age over 27 years. Need massive roster turnover. And coaching and front office and owner turnover.

The defense is too dependent on fouling and hoping a lot doesn't get called. No team in top half of fouls against in playoffs got out of second round.

They don't shoot or make enough 3s. They are overrepresented on mid-range shots compared to league average. Get to FT line but not to rim. Overall lousy shooting, too many turnovers, not enough offensive rebounds. Garbage overall offense. Get rid of Conley. He isn't doing what he is paid huge to do. Offense sucks, assists below average.

Not a single non Gasol lineup used over 1 minute per game for season. Highest minute JVal lineup sucks. There are a couple of strong low minute lineups with JVal, Wright, Holiday and Caboclo. Try them more. Don't have any bigger minute lineup better to lean on. Test and test more until the good results stop coming and efforts to revive with winning ways fail for long enough to call it dead.

Conley Anderson J Jackson has good sublineup data. Best non Gasol trio. Only positive such lineup over 1.5 minutes per game. Modest use of all together. Need more trial. Get someone younger with similar game to Temple. There is almost nothing positive outside this quad, except most of these guys and Dorsey.

If Conley is retained, time with JVal should be minimized because it is bad performing. J Holiday should not be retained. Bradley could be traded or part of a tank job.

J Jackson is modestly positive with Conley and Anderson and horrible with rest of main rotation. Be willing to trade basically anyone beyond Jackson and Anderson. Conley won't be around for next time in playoffs, so probably better to move on if can get decent offer.

Crow
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Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Post by Crow » Tue Mar 26, 2019 6:30 pm

J Jackson / J Val has only been used 28 minutes. It was terrible. I don't care how terrible, this should have been tested 200 plus minutes. If they didn't test, they might be intent of trading JVal or hoping he opts out. Ok... if you get do better. But they are basically ignorant about that pair and what it might do in future if JVal remains.

Crow
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Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Post by Crow » Tue Mar 26, 2019 6:48 pm

If they keep Holiday, play him in his positive lineups more and eliminate the bad ones.

Or do opposite and suck / tank again.

Crow
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Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Post by Crow » Tue Apr 02, 2019 3:10 am

Seems pretty safe to say Warriors and Bucks will fight to be the favorite next season depending on Bucks' free agency and Warriors' free agency and trades.

What Rockets can do with exceptions and trades is worth watching.

Celtics could be significantly better or worse. Raptors and Sixers could be about same or worse. I doubt better. Jazz may be better or about same. Doubt worse. Pacers and Blazers probably more the same than different but who knows.

Dr Positivity
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Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Post by Dr Positivity » Thu Apr 04, 2019 9:05 pm

Crow wrote:
Tue Apr 02, 2019 3:10 am
Seems pretty safe to say Warriors and Bucks will fight to be the favorite next season depending on Bucks' free agency and Warriors' free agency and trades.

What Rockets can do with exceptions and trades is worth watching.

Celtics could be significantly better or worse. Raptors and Sixers could be about same or worse. I doubt better. Jazz may be better or about same. Doubt worse. Pacers and Blazers probably more the same than different but who knows.
Nuggets?

Crow
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Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Post by Crow » Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:27 am

Unintentional omission. Hadn't planned on naming all contenders. I'd guess not much change if Milsap is back. I don't know them well though.

I probably should have expressed some doubt about Warriors contending for top spot. I guess I temporarily forgot about the potential changes. I don't know how change is coming but there probably when be even more fight for tops in west than this season.

Crow
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Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Post by Crow » Fri Apr 05, 2019 8:00 pm

Wizards should blow it up. They can chase the 8th seed next season or season after but more likely than not won't get it. Probably 4-5 years minimum to get back to something beyond chance for 8th seed. Just a matter when you want to start the process Ted.

There are no strong player pairs with Beal or otherwise to argue in favor of paying to retain the free agents. Wall's eventual return does not offer hope. Wall-Beal etc. was largely meh and I doubt it changes.

New coach? Sure at some point. Brooks wasn't the answer, isn't going to be.

Crow
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Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Post by Crow » Sat Apr 06, 2019 2:42 am

Which NBA tries to hire Tony Bennett? Is he interested?

Seems like the guy the Thunder would like. Better act fast and hard if they want him.

Crow
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Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Post by Crow » Fri Apr 19, 2019 9:43 pm

Would or will C Billups be a good GM? I dunno. Eventually we'll probably find out. I don't listen to TV commentators much, but I don't recall ever hearing any above average commentary from him. Different jobs but pull from same source.

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