Early 2019-2020 season commentary

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Crow
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Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Post by Crow » Mon Apr 29, 2019 7:20 pm

Clippers might become real contender or they might disappoint next season. They probably overperformed this season and will probably tear down some of what they had to unknown impact.

Crow
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Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Post by Crow » Mon Apr 29, 2019 7:50 pm

Spurs should look hard at trading DeRozan, especially if they can get Gay back on a reasonable contract or another decent option. The future backcourt is probably Murray-White.

Crow
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Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Post by Crow » Sat May 04, 2019 12:22 am

In his previous head coaching Monty Williams generally had teams better than average on offensive or defensive efficiency but never both at same time and it was altering. In 5 seasons, he had one top 10 on each. It is an ok record but nothing special.

On expected wins vs actual he averaged a -1 but the trend was up and they were plus 2 in his last season. Fwiw.

His teams played slower than average in all his seasons, sometimes slowest or next slowest. Which way will he go with Suns? Which way does management and ownership want him to go? They probably fast but I dunno if the slow down to 12th on pace this past season was all Coach or done with agreement of those above. Playing fast wasn't working there in terms of basketball performance for 3-4 years (depending on what level of wins you need to call it successful).

Williams used 582 lineups in his last season. 34% positive has pretty good for his level of team. Biggest minute lineup was only 350 minutes. On the surface it sure looks like he should have used 3 of his 4 biggest minute lineups way more. But either he and / =or the team disagreed or was oblivious to the data suggesting that.

Crow
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Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Post by Crow » Sat May 04, 2019 12:58 am

Ty Lue in Cleveland didn't show much in the way of big minute lineups, by preference or circumstance. Biggest minute lineups topped out at 350-450 minutes for season, or roughly 4.5 to 5.5 minutes per game. Average amount of excessive dink lineups in final full season at a bit less than 700 used.. A good but not great percentage of winners at 34%. Nothing particularly strong there.

Crow
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Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Post by Crow » Mon May 06, 2019 11:07 pm

One early set of Vegas odds for 2020 title:

https://www.peachtreehoops.com/2019/5/4 ... rce-opener

Taking these as mere rough indications of strength, I'd think Det, Char, Mia, Wsh, Cle, Min, Mem, NO should strongly consider moving current assets for future assets.

The second tier of teams is kinda squishy. Third tier could join fight with second tier. Even the first tier is not guaranteed to stay that way.

Several teams in 4th tier will talk about being 2nd tier and it could be true. Not all team in 5th tier will stay there. But not all teams can meet or beat these expectations.

Crow
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Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Post by Crow » Thu May 09, 2019 1:18 am

I kinda thought Lue would ask for more money & years than the Lakers would want to give.

Was he asking for $8 mil / yr or more? Probably. Doubt anybody gives him that. 5 year deal, maybe somewhere else. Wait awhile, living on last contract, his value may go down.


Not impressed with most of their alternative candidates. Will give Woodson another look.

Crow
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Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Post by Crow » Sun May 12, 2019 5:41 pm

Vogel with the Pacers seemed good, though I didn't follow him closely. Defense was strong. His tenure began with the arrial of Paul George. And yet offense was well below average in 4 of 5 years.

Vogel with Magic did not work. Worst career seasons from Vucaveic, Gordon, Ibaka, Fournier, Augustin, Hezonja. Relatively better seasons for Payton and Biyombo, but not that good. Offense and defense both got worse in his first season, significantly. Recovered some in second year but both still short of average. Why did he do so poorly there?

Just 45. Maybe he learned some things or maybe he will be a quick out.

Defense will probably be at least at last season's level. Not sure it gets better. Is he going to fix the offense? Odds are, no. And probably not even to average.

Is this a set up to smooth Kidd in with less fuss? Probably.

Lakers likely to stay meh, not advance or contend.

Crow
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Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Post by Crow » Sun May 19, 2019 1:56 am

Rockets parting with Bzeldik shortly after he indicated uncertainty about coming back doesnt surprise me. But was it a decision by Morey, the owner or both? Either way it is probably a step downwards.

Crow
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Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Post by Crow » Wed May 22, 2019 6:02 am

In the east, the Pacers and Nets have some chance to move into first tier. The Raptors, Sixers and Celtics have some chance to slip back to second tier. In the west, the Clippers might move to first tier. The Rockets and Blazers might slip to second tier.

Crow
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Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Post by Crow » Sun May 26, 2019 4:52 pm

Blazers, imo, have almost no chance at a title without major, major changes. Nuggets have little chance at a title without major changes.

Bucks... they may have chance of title without major changes, but I'd probably still make major changes.

Celtics, need major changes.

Rockets, probably need major changes.

Sixers... I'll look closer another time. But my initial reaction is needs major changes for a title.

To get to conference finals or have a good chance at that has a different standard. A number of teams could basically run it back the same for that.

Jazz were perhaps the greatest first round flop this time. Could shoot and didn't defend above average.

Crow
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Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Post by Crow » Wed May 29, 2019 11:03 pm

Wiggins says he expects "to get back on track". New GM is "going to help in every way" because “Andrew is a very talented individual,” ... “I know what his potential is."

Uh...

When was Wiggins ever really on track in NBA? Best months were February 2017 and April 2014. May hav been ok at other times but these were the only months that were elevated (in quick boxscore metric review).

BPM has barely moved from near replacement level. WS/48 and PER at their worst ever levels. RPM at -1.35 has barely improved in recent years.

Crow
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Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Post by Crow » Mon Jun 03, 2019 7:12 am

If Kyrie and KD go to Knicks, do they win 42 games next season? More or less?

Crow
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Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Post by Crow » Wed Jun 05, 2019 5:50 am

Of the 8 teams who made it past the first round, most could see major off-season changes. The Blazers are probably the least likely to change significantly. Nuggets could make that choice as well. Imo, they should consider major changes to improve prospects of advancing further..

Crow
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Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Post by Crow » Wed Jun 05, 2019 6:01 pm

Heat's offense has been below league average since LBJ left. 26th on offensive efficiency last season. 3 straight years of decline over previous. Well below average team efg%, own turnovers and getting to the line. Need to get at least 2 of these to average, preferably above to be more relevant. Tall task. Probably requires multiple better than average trades. Or more years of treading water until some of the too many folks signed for too much money and / or too many years just go away. Shot distribution is average to slightly below from a Moreyball perspective. I'd want to be top 5 or 10 on that.

They had no idea what their starting lineup should be and probably still don't. No lineup tried over 2 minutes per game for season. Only 2 over 1 minute per game. Total lineup chaos. They had a handful of promising lineups but they didn't adequately test any of them.

Richardson Winslow Olynyk Adebayo is the core. Probably should play 3-4 at a time to the very max possible. All 4 were on court together only about 2.6 minutes per game. Unfathomable. 3 of the 4 were on court for over 2200 minutes but that could be more and they need more of the 4 together and / or more selectivity about which trios and completions to use.

82% of total team salary went to players outside this core.

627 lineups used. 31% positive. Typical irrational, ineffective general over-coaching bull whack.

Crow
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Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Post by Crow » Wed Jun 12, 2019 9:40 am

The new Grizzlies coach has a high profile pedigree. If it works, they are a modern team with good expectations. If it doesn't, the pedigree gives cover and the failure just helps with getting good draft picks.

It is no surprise to see Messina leaving. If there is surprise, it was that he waited this long without getting a job with another team or at least an official designation as the Spurs heir.

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