Early 2019-2020 season commentary

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eminence
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Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Post by eminence » Fri Jun 14, 2019 12:22 pm

Man, if only I could short the Knicks.

Pacers deserve a far better number than that.

eminence
Posts: 137
Joined: Sun Sep 10, 2017 8:20 pm

Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Post by eminence » Fri Jun 14, 2019 7:57 pm

No idea where to ask this one, but did anyone ever figure out what was up with that Gitlab 'RAPM' dataset from the guy at UCLA? I'm seeing it cited a fair amount recently and I'm ~98% sure it's junk, it'd be nice to be able to tell people why but I know no python.

https://basketball-analytics.gitlab.io/rapm-data/

Crow
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Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Post by Crow » Fri Jun 14, 2019 9:41 pm

Have you read their about page links to theory and code? Or is your opinion just based on player estimates specific or in general?

The article on theory is sort a podghodge of everything they could think to say. It is more broad than deep.

eminence
Posts: 137
Joined: Sun Sep 10, 2017 8:20 pm

Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Post by eminence » Fri Jun 14, 2019 10:58 pm

Crow wrote:
Fri Jun 14, 2019 9:41 pm
Have you read their about page links to theory and code? Or is your opinion just based on player estimates specific or in general?

The article on theory is sort a podghodge of everything they could think to say. It is more broad than deep.

I read through the theory page (agree it's just to sell the idea, not overly insightful), attempted to read the code, but without knowing python/being a stats expert didn't get very far :D

The results are what threw me for a loop, '10 Nash being the one that was pointed out to me in particular. I don't remember exactly but I think he's ~ top 5 in JE's version and 494th in this one. Just looking at the Suns on/off stuff on Bbref that result seems like it would be into the realm of impossible.

Crow
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Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Post by Crow » Sun Jun 16, 2019 8:14 am

Hmm.

I guess we really need to line these various RAPMs up.

Crow
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Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Post by Crow » Sun Jun 16, 2019 8:16 am

Lakers, Warriors, Nuggets, Rockets, Blazers, Clippers, Thunder, Jazz...

and the race among others for a chance to get in that mix?

In the east will there be sufficient reason to care after the first 6 teams?

Crow
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Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Post by Crow » Mon Jun 17, 2019 6:33 pm

Fact check: Rockets were 8th on team salaries in 2017-18 and 12th in 2018-19. Next season? We'll see.

Crow
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Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Post by Crow » Tue Jun 18, 2019 5:24 pm

There is a good chance that last season was the Bucks' peak.

I don't see them getting a title without major change.

Crow
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Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Post by Crow » Tue Jun 18, 2019 6:07 pm

There is a pretty good chance the 2020 conference finals have a completely different group of 4 teams than 2019.

Crow
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Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Post by Crow » Wed Jun 19, 2019 12:12 am

Well, looks like the Celtics are going to change. No meaningful trade last season despite all the angst, but now free agent exits?

eminence
Posts: 137
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Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Post by eminence » Wed Jun 19, 2019 9:51 pm

Moderately happy with the Jazz's trade for Conley, think we may have gave up 1 minor asset more than was necessary. Still need at least one more rotation guy going into next season. Currently have the room MLE. Rumors they're trying to buy up into a pick into the 30's.

Crow
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Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Post by Crow » Fri Jun 21, 2019 11:15 pm

There are 9 teams in west (the incumbents and the Lakers) with legit aspirations to win the 47 plus games next season needed to make playoffs. Somebody will probably face a major injury or chemistry issue or bad luck and fall short.

Other teams will seek to get into the mix but I doubt it.

In the east, the same 10 teams are likely to compete for the 8 spots. If anyone new rises, it most likely would be the Hawks, though I think it unlikely they rise enough next season. 43 wins should be enough to get to playoffs there.

Crow
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Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Post by Crow » Sun Jun 30, 2019 7:07 pm

Strongly disagree with an early 4 year supermax extension to Lillard.

Crow
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Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Post by Crow » Mon Jul 01, 2019 4:32 am

Strongly disagree with an early max extension to D Murray. Barely above average impact player. Didn't improve much from year 2 to 3.

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