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Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Posted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 5:46 am
by Crow

Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Posted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 12:22 pm
by eminence
Man, if only I could short the Knicks.

Pacers deserve a far better number than that.

Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Posted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 7:57 pm
by eminence
No idea where to ask this one, but did anyone ever figure out what was up with that Gitlab 'RAPM' dataset from the guy at UCLA? I'm seeing it cited a fair amount recently and I'm ~98% sure it's junk, it'd be nice to be able to tell people why but I know no python.

https://basketball-analytics.gitlab.io/rapm-data/

Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Posted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 9:41 pm
by Crow
Have you read their about page links to theory and code? Or is your opinion just based on player estimates specific or in general?

The article on theory is sort a podghodge of everything they could think to say. It is more broad than deep.

Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Posted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 10:58 pm
by eminence
Crow wrote:
Fri Jun 14, 2019 9:41 pm
Have you read their about page links to theory and code? Or is your opinion just based on player estimates specific or in general?

The article on theory is sort a podghodge of everything they could think to say. It is more broad than deep.

I read through the theory page (agree it's just to sell the idea, not overly insightful), attempted to read the code, but without knowing python/being a stats expert didn't get very far :D

The results are what threw me for a loop, '10 Nash being the one that was pointed out to me in particular. I don't remember exactly but I think he's ~ top 5 in JE's version and 494th in this one. Just looking at the Suns on/off stuff on Bbref that result seems like it would be into the realm of impossible.

Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Posted: Sun Jun 16, 2019 8:14 am
by Crow
Hmm.

I guess we really need to line these various RAPMs up.

Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Posted: Sun Jun 16, 2019 8:16 am
by Crow
Lakers, Warriors, Nuggets, Rockets, Blazers, Clippers, Thunder, Jazz...

and the race among others for a chance to get in that mix?

In the east will there be sufficient reason to care after the first 6 teams?

Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Posted: Mon Jun 17, 2019 6:33 pm
by Crow
Fact check: Rockets were 8th on team salaries in 2017-18 and 12th in 2018-19. Next season? We'll see.

Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Posted: Tue Jun 18, 2019 5:24 pm
by Crow
There is a good chance that last season was the Bucks' peak.

I don't see them getting a title without major change.

Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Posted: Tue Jun 18, 2019 6:07 pm
by Crow
There is a pretty good chance the 2020 conference finals have a completely different group of 4 teams than 2019.

Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Posted: Wed Jun 19, 2019 12:12 am
by Crow
Well, looks like the Celtics are going to change. No meaningful trade last season despite all the angst, but now free agent exits?

Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Posted: Wed Jun 19, 2019 9:51 pm
by eminence
Moderately happy with the Jazz's trade for Conley, think we may have gave up 1 minor asset more than was necessary. Still need at least one more rotation guy going into next season. Currently have the room MLE. Rumors they're trying to buy up into a pick into the 30's.

Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Posted: Fri Jun 21, 2019 11:15 pm
by Crow
There are 9 teams in west (the incumbents and the Lakers) with legit aspirations to win the 47 plus games next season needed to make playoffs. Somebody will probably face a major injury or chemistry issue or bad luck and fall short.

Other teams will seek to get into the mix but I doubt it.

In the east, the same 10 teams are likely to compete for the 8 spots. If anyone new rises, it most likely would be the Hawks, though I think it unlikely they rise enough next season. 43 wins should be enough to get to playoffs there.

Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Posted: Sun Jun 30, 2019 7:07 pm
by Crow
Strongly disagree with an early 4 year supermax extension to Lillard.

Re: Early 2019-2020 season commentary

Posted: Mon Jul 01, 2019 4:32 am
by Crow
Strongly disagree with an early max extension to D Murray. Barely above average impact player. Didn't improve much from year 2 to 3.