Thunder

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Crow
Posts: 6248
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Thunder

Post by Crow » Sun Mar 31, 2019 11:50 pm

Thunder are 7-13 since All-Star break.

Compared to last season the average team improved their offensive rating by 1.7 points per 100 possessions. The Thunder's is down 0.9 points. The defense is improved (even without Roberson) but by less than half as much.

As of now this is 3 of 4 seasons where Billy Donovan's teams have underperformed expected wins, fwiw.

3pt rate is down a bit in absolute terms and 5 spots on team ranking. team efg% is down 6 spots, though only a tiny amount on actual efg%, Obviously Russ' shooting is a main reason.

FT% has fallen for 3rd straight year though by only a small amount this season. What once was a source of pride is now only 20th best.

Assists per game, 22nd best. Adjusted for pace it becomes 26th best.

FT attempt rate is 8th best but FTM / FGA is only 20th.

Opponent FT/FGA started as average in Donovan's first season and has gotten modestly larger.

Thunder are top 10 on offense and defense on turnovers and rebounds but below average with everything associated with efg% and ft/fga on both sides of the court.

Pace is 6.2 possessions faster than last season but didn't gain anything by doing it.

4th best record against the Sagarin top 10. Weaker than you'd expect against lottery teams at under 60% win.

By BPM there are 4 above average players. The big 3 and Noel, who only plays minor minutes. BY RPM is it 5 with Grant. They have several half decent role players but overall the bench is weak. Ferguson starts but by RPM is at the level of a good third stringer.

Schroder is having his worst season since his rookie season by several metrics. Still waiting to hear more from Abrines. Patterson has been a flop. Felton is terrible on BPM, passing near his least amount ever. The deep bench has been promise but doesn't give much on average nights.

What will they do in playoffs? What will they do in off-season? I dunno. I night have more reason to expect a better playoffs than I do the next few years. They will talk up Roberson. It might have made a difference or still could but there is also some reason to get off that train of thought.

I think they will pay about $60 million in luxury tax this season. Will have to decide how much they are willing to pay next season. They had hopes & expectations for this season that made them decide to pay it. Will hopes be as high for next season? Should they be? The story will unfold slowly. Are ownership, Presti and Donovan on same page? Hang in there one more season or change? Is Westbrook tradeable for decent return? George would be at his highest level... unless he has another weak playoffs. Adams probaby would get a good return if Thunder shopped him. RPM stalled out as a third tier at best guy. Probably only barely worth his salary or not depending on how you calculate that.

eminence
Posts: 141
Joined: Sun Sep 10, 2017 8:20 pm

Re: Thunder

Post by eminence » Mon Apr 01, 2019 12:54 am

Not sure they could get any significant return for Westbrook/Adams (don't think they seriously consider moving Westbrook).

I'd classify them as a minor disappointment going into the playoffs, but correctable if they can upset or even just push a serious contender. For the future the fixes seem pretty obvious, get better shooting mid rotation guys and hope Westbrook bounces back. Tough to make any moves though, they're pretty set financially going into next season. That's if they want to fringe contend for the near future. Anything further than that would require a full tear down and I doubt they have owner/fan support for that. Maybe there's a miracle coaching change that could do it, but I doubt it.

Crow
Posts: 6248
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Thunder

Post by Crow » Tue Apr 02, 2019 2:04 am

Thunder likely to have at least 3 new players next season. I'd change more. A lot more. Up to all 17.

Imo they should either make first last try at a massive luxury tax or tear it ALL down and target 4-5 years from now. There is in between but I wouldn't do it.

Crow
Posts: 6248
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Thunder

Post by Crow » Tue Jun 04, 2019 1:32 am

There is quite a range for what could happen next season. If they get healthy, perhaps a top 4 seed is possible. But with presumably more challengers for playoff spots and perhaps inadequate action on deficiencies, they could battle for 8th seed or miss out.

Crow
Posts: 6248
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Thunder

Post by Crow » Wed Jun 05, 2019 6:00 am

The Donovan era seems likely to end within the next 12 months.

What kind of coach should they try to find and set up?

Probably younger.
More demanding.
More creative.
More reliant on analytics.

I'd say with more influence on roster decisions too, but that seems unlikely.

Crow
Posts: 6248
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Thunder

Post by Crow » Wed Jun 05, 2019 6:47 pm

$90 million paid for 3 players and going up. No other team in league had 3 players with top 30 salaries. (9 teams had 2.)

No team has more money already committed for the next 2 years and it is not close.

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