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Win probability of playoffs

Posted: Thu Apr 11, 2019 10:42 pm
by josecarlos
Hi!!!

I have a doubt. How is calculated this % of victory in playoffs?

Image

Thanks in advance!!!

Re: Win probability of playoffs

Posted: Fri Apr 12, 2019 5:09 am
by Crow
The answer is where I assume you got the graphic https://fansided.com/2019/04/11/nylon-c ... le-charts/

If you want more explanation, you could try messaging Jacob at his twitter address. He might see it here and answer on his own. Or not.

Re: Win probability of playoffs

Posted: Fri Apr 12, 2019 9:15 am
by josecarlos
Crow wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 5:09 am
The answer is where I assume you got the graphic https://fansided.com/2019/04/11/nylon-c ... le-charts/

If you want more explanation, you could try messaging Jacob at his twitter address. He might see it here and answer on his own. Or not.
Thank you very much for your appreciated help!!! You are always so kind with me!!!

Re: Win probability of playoffs

Posted: Fri Apr 12, 2019 3:35 pm
by Crow
You are always polite and appreciative.

You could perhaps trust yourself more, dig harder and be a leader in what you want to do and help others. Asking questions is of course a good quality, when you need to.

Re: Win probability of playoffs

Posted: Sat Apr 13, 2019 7:31 pm
by Mike G
They've run 10,000 "simulations" based on some strength metric and home court advantage.
In about 570 runs, the Jazz have won the first 4 games. Since the 4th root of .057 is .489, that is the avg chance that Utah beats Houston; more at home and less on the road.
The 4th root of .063 (Hou chance of sweeping) is .501. There is some rounding error.

If not for HCA, you would not get bumps in the distribution, as in Hou less likely to win in 6 than in either 5 or 7.
In 16 years since the first round went to 7 games, there have been (16x8) 128 1st round series. Just 25 of them have gone 7 games, not quite 1 in 5.
So this one has almost a 1/3 chance of going 7; should be a very entertaining series.

Re: Win probability of playoffs

Posted: Sat Apr 13, 2019 11:03 pm
by josecarlos
Mike G wrote:
Sat Apr 13, 2019 7:31 pm
They've run 10,000 "simulations" based on some strength metric and home court advantage.
In about 570 runs, the Jazz have won the first 4 games. Since the 4th root of .057 is .489, that is the avg chance that Utah beats Houston; more at home and less on the road.
The 4th root of .063 (Hou chance of sweeping) is .501. There is some rounding error.

If not for HCA, you would not get bumps in the distribution, as in Hou less likely to win in 6 than in either 5 or 7.
In 16 years since the first round went to 7 games, there have been (16x8) 128 1st round series. Just 25 of them have gone 7 games, not quite 1 in 5.
So this one has almost a 1/3 chance of going 7; should be a very entertaining series.
Thanks for your help, too!!!