Playoff shot distribution and efficiency

Home for all your discussion of basketball statistical analysis.
Post Reply
Crow
Posts: 6148
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Playoff shot distribution and efficiency

Post by Crow » Fri Apr 19, 2019 7:30 pm

Shots from 10-23 ft are up about 30% in frequency over league season and efficiency is up several percentage points too (a 5-7% improvement over regular season efficiency). Shots from 3-10 feet are also up in frequency slightly but down on efficiency modestly.

Shots at rim are down in frequency and efficiency. Modestly.

Shots from 3pt land are down in frequency and efficiency. Modestly.

Either defenses are doing a better job of fighting Moreyball or offenses are drifting away from it on their own. Probably some of both.

As a defense I'd take more shots from 10-23 feet because even at modestly improved efficiency they are still below average efficiency possessions used.

FTAs per game are up by about 1. That could be about teams and / or officiating.

Nate
Posts: 130
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2015 2:35 pm

Re: Playoff shot distribution and efficiency

Post by Nate » Wed Apr 24, 2019 4:29 pm

...As a defense I'd take more shots from 10-23 feet because even at modestly improved efficiency they are still below average efficiency possessions used. ...
It certainly fits with the narrative of teams taking defense more seriously during the playoffs.

pdevos
Posts: 34
Joined: Fri Jun 26, 2015 6:18 pm
Contact:

Re: Playoff shot distribution and efficiency

Post by pdevos » Thu Apr 25, 2019 8:07 pm

Could also be sampling with 16 of the 30 teams having much different qualities than the entire 30 teams. So maybe compare average of those 16 teams. But it would also reason those teams are better at limiting offensive efficiency than the other 14 teams.

Obviously you have the Jazz strategy, playing behind James Harden and essentially zoning (and Gobert/Favors) the paint.

pdevos
Posts: 34
Joined: Fri Jun 26, 2015 6:18 pm
Contact:

Re: Playoff shot distribution and efficiency

Post by pdevos » Thu Apr 25, 2019 8:15 pm

Playoffs on top
Regular season on bottom

Image

Crow
Posts: 6148
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Playoff shot distribution and efficiency

Post by Crow » Thu Apr 25, 2019 10:18 pm

Is that regular season for 30 teams or just the 16 as you suggested checking?

pdevos
Posts: 34
Joined: Fri Jun 26, 2015 6:18 pm
Contact:

Re: Playoff shot distribution and efficiency

Post by pdevos » Sat Apr 27, 2019 2:13 am

it's the 30 regular season vs the 16 playoff.

I should crunch the 16 for the regular season.

Crow
Posts: 6148
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Playoff shot distribution and efficiency

Post by Crow » Sat Apr 27, 2019 8:28 pm

For playoff 16 in regular season:

0-3 0.287
3-10 0.157
10-16 0.096
16-23 0.093
23 plus 0.367

So less change for these 16 teams than it appeared in the comparison to the regular season for all teams. The main shift is less shots at rim becoming 10-16 footers.

Crow
Posts: 6148
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Playoff shot distribution and efficiency

Post by Crow » Sun Apr 28, 2019 5:26 am

The Spurs before tonight were about average on efg% in playoffs. They'll end up lower. They got there shooting way below average in frequency from 3 pt land and from at the rim and way above average from mid-range. They hit pretty good from mid-range. They also didn't turn it over. But in game 7 they didn't hit enough from 3 or mid-range.

The playoff pair of Aldridge-DeRozan was the Spurs' second worst big minute pair on performance before tonight. losing badly on average; and the other really bad big minute in 10 most used pairs also had one of them. The team when that pair was on court had a massive 3pta net deficit and was beat on efg% whereas many of the other Spurs pairings out-shot the Nuggets.

The Spurs lost series to probably the better team for several reasons including shot defense and not forcing turnovers. But average efg% and low FT rate also contributed.

Do they change this core pair or this shot distribution? I would. I don't know what they'll do; but I'd guess it is more likely they don't change these things next season.

Crow
Posts: 6148
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Playoff shot distribution and efficiency

Post by Crow » Mon Apr 29, 2019 1:13 am

Spurs' 3pt attempt rate was lowest in playoffs, 20% below 2nd lowest and about 50% below average. That is quite a variance. Could do it, but as I said before, check the results.

Post Reply