What went wrong for Rockets

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eminence
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Re: What went wrong for Rockets

Post by eminence » Thu May 30, 2019 1:18 am

If I were the Jazz I'd getting in touch to hear the asking price for Paul. If they can get him for essentially matching salaries (Favors/Exum/Korver) I think that could be a great high risk move for them. For the Rockets it makes some sense if they can move one of Favors/Capela for value (I'd think they could, maybe Sacramento?) and are committed to making a big move.

Crow
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Re: What went wrong for Rockets

Post by Crow » Thu May 30, 2019 3:05 pm

That is an unusual trade idea.

How far do you think the Jazz would go with it? Does it make Mitchell or Gobert different or better?

eminence
Posts: 140
Joined: Sun Sep 10, 2017 8:20 pm

Re: What went wrong for Rockets

Post by eminence » Thu May 30, 2019 11:55 pm

I'd have the Jazz #2 in the West after such a trade, with Houston a fairly close #3. Bit of a flipping of the roles there. GS still #1 if healthy and all back. Not sure exactly how it'd work for Mitchell, keeps him a bit fresher for sure and would certainly teach him a thing or two in practice. The hope would be that CP3 can still float a top 10 or so offense and combined with the great D grab a high seed and see what happens. Right now the offense isn't consistent enough and leads to some cold stretches throughout the season that sink us a couple spots in seeding that really hurts.

Crow
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Re: What went wrong for Rockets

Post by Crow » Fri May 31, 2019 8:11 am

This would be an all in move by Jazz. Mainly for next season. Not sure Paul is anywhere close to peak Paul or this year's Paul in 2020-21 or 21-22. Or 2019-20 frankly.

For Rockets to do this, they really have to re-think their huge investment in Paul or see problems with him & Harden or really like Favors or see a multi-step path to another star.

Crow
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Re: What went wrong for Rockets

Post by Crow » Fri May 31, 2019 8:35 am

Houston lets go of most of coaching staff and fails to agree on an extension with D'Antoni.

No top coach would take the style contract Fertitta offered.

Crow
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Re: What went wrong for Rockets

Post by Crow » Sat Jun 01, 2019 3:24 am

Analysis on a year to year regular season basis:

Rockets did not shoot as well. 7% more 3 ptas, but 3pt fg% down a bit. At the rim attempt rate down from 11th best in 2017-18 to 26th in 2018-19. FT rate down from 3rd best to 6th. So less balanced Moreyball.

Total collapse of defensive rebounding. Went from 3rd best to 28th best. Some might be "bad luck" or less "good luck than before", but that is a huge swing. May get at effort, coaching influenced effort.

4th lowest fouling rate skyrocketed to 6th highest.

Better fix at least those 2 defensive factors. Back to average or back to elite?

Crow
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Re: What went wrong for Rockets

Post by Crow » Sat Jun 01, 2019 3:56 am

What haven't the Rockets under Morey tried? Well, for one thing, a head coach under 54 years old. The average age of their head coach has been near or over 60.

I'd try under 45. Me. I'd try it next year. I assume they will have a coach in waiting of some level on the bench, in case. But I would go to that right away and the very best you can get now rather than wait.

Crow
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Re: What went wrong for Rockets

Post by Crow » Mon Jun 10, 2019 5:20 am

Go around LeGarie? Bosses who hate agents and negotiations try it. Doesn't sound like that worked. Usually doesn't. Did they actually think it would?

Not sure what the end result will be in the near term.

Eventually though, the Rockets will have a different coach. Chris Finch, perhaps?

D'Antoni, if he wants to coach longer, might draw interest from the Wizards or Hornets I'd guess. Maybe Grizzlies is things move to break up quick. Or he might end up retiring voluntarily or not so much. I don't think many other clubs are going to hire a coach that old. Maybe Pistons would consider. Possibly Timberwolves. Thunder? Probably not, but not impossible. I'd be surprised if it was somebody else.

Just looking at his record (without trying to get at team quality and potential), he has had 7 good team season w-l records, 2 ok and 6 weak ones. 9 playoff series wins in 9 playoff appearances. 60% appearance rate. Call it good or very good as you will. Is he going to win a title next season? Probably not. It is hard to see playoff defense going up by as much as needed. But maybe there is some scenario with good breaks where it could happen. I wouldn't give that strong odds. Their time is probably past without major changes and may be past period. The younger stars are the ones to watch, imo. Kawhi and younger.

Rockets have won 7 playoff series in last 12 years. Just under 0.6 per year. 75% playoff appearance rate. Not what they were hoping for or expecting I'd guess. 1.3 per season over the last 3 years. 2 plus would be impressive. 1.3? 0.6? You decide. I guess 1.3 over last 3 years puts them in a tie for 4th / 5th best. 0.6 over the last 12 years puts them in 9th place for that time period. 9th isn't bad. But if you agree there are about 10 teams that have been generally mismanaged and lousy non-factors over that time period, it isn't that great either.

Rockets and D'Antoni were better together than they were separately. But next season? Or beyond that? That is debatable. Fwiw, I think I'd try change. Within the next 4-6 weeks.

Crow
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Re: What went wrong for Rockets

Post by Crow » Tue Jun 18, 2019 8:46 pm

eminence wrote:
Thu May 30, 2019 1:18 am
If I were the Jazz I'd getting in touch to hear the asking price for Paul. If they can get him for essentially matching salaries (Favors/Exum/Korver) I think that could be a great high risk move for them. For the Rockets it makes some sense if they can move one of Favors/Capela for value (I'd think they could, maybe Sacramento?) and are committed to making a big move.
Time for that call.

Maybe one from Charlotte too.

eminence
Posts: 140
Joined: Sun Sep 10, 2017 8:20 pm

Re: What went wrong for Rockets

Post by eminence » Wed Jun 19, 2019 4:10 am

No idea what to expect from these guys at this point, reports are just all over the place.

Crow
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Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: What went wrong for Rockets

Post by Crow » Wed Jun 19, 2019 7:23 pm

Conley goes to Utah.

And Paul sits with those who gave him that contract. He might end up traded but it will probably take a lot of work and concessions even the years left, salary, age, injuries, attitude. etc.

Crow
Posts: 6245
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: What went wrong for Rockets

Post by Crow » Thu Jul 11, 2019 12:40 am

Regular season data showed Rockets had a harder time with teams that scored well (duh), rebounded well, got to line a lot and played fast. Warriors were only 2 of these things.

There are other future playoff opponents that are good at 2 or more of these. A couple other teams in west had 2 (Nuggets, Blazers), as did the Raptors and Nets. Clips pretty good on 3. Bucks and Sixers on 4.

Warriors were not only team they needed to prove they could beat... last season or this coming one.

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