2019-20 team win projection contest

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eminence
Posts: 139
Joined: Sun Sep 10, 2017 8:20 pm

Re: 2019-20 team win projection contest

Post by eminence » Fri Jul 19, 2019 7:15 pm

A couple early thoughts on 538's #s:

-I'm surprised Cleveland is that low, maybe counting on a Love trade or something? If he's reasonably healthy I'd expect closer to 30 than 20.
-Not sure the Bulls jump quite that much, but wouldn't be surprised if they're one of the largest risers from last season.
-Think the Raptors could be a good bit better than that, we'll see how Lowry/Gasol continue to age. I wouldn't be at all surprised if they approached 55 wins.
-Haven't made up my mind how I feel about the Sixers yet, initial feeling is I don't love the new fit, but tough to decide.
-Similar on the Rockets as the Sixers.
-Jazz/Warriors are my favorites to break free from that upper West pack.
-Blazers bit low I think.
-35 seems really high for a team who'll be running a rookie PG with the Grizz, I think I expect them to be the clear #15 in the West.

Crow
Posts: 6246
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2019-20 team win projection contest

Post by Crow » Fri Jul 19, 2019 7:30 pm

Betonline excluded OKC and HOU.

The correlation of these projections with 538 is .85

The biggest discrepancies (plus or minus 6) were BKN, CHI. IND, LAC. MEM MIN, PHX, POR, SAS.

The average difference is 4.3.

vegas 538 538-Vegas
ATL 32.5 ATL 28 -4.5
BRK 45.5 BKN 38 -7.5
BOS 48.5 BOS 46 -2.5
CHA24.5 CHA26 1.5
CHI 30.5 CHI 37 6.5
CLE 24.5 CLE 21 -3.5
DAL 41.5 DAL 44 2.5
DEN 50.5 DEN 51 0.5
DET 36.5 DET 36 -0.5
GSW47.5 GS 50 2.5
IND 48.5 IND 39 -9.5
LAC 55.5 LAC 48 -7.5
LAL 51.5 LAL 50 -1.5
MEM27.5 MEM35 7.5
MIA 42.5 MIA 44 1.5
MIL 56.5 MIL 54 -2.5
MIN 35.5 MIN 43 7.5
NOP 37.5 NO 43 5.5
NYK 26.5 NY 23 -3.5
ORL 41.5 ORL 42 0.5
PHI 53.5 PHI 59 5.5
PHX 26.5 PHX 36 9.5
POR 45.5 POR 38 -7.5
SAC 36.5 SAC 33 -3.5
SAS 43.5 SA 38 -5.5
TOR 45.5 TOR 45 -0.5
UTA 52.5 UTA 50 -2.5
WAS28.5 WSH 32 3.5

shadow
Posts: 220
Joined: Fri May 29, 2015 3:38 am

Re: 2019-20 team win projection contest

Post by shadow » Tue Jul 23, 2019 3:00 pm

FYI - you have SAS and SAC transposed.

Crow
Posts: 6246
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2019-20 team win projection contest

Post by Crow » Tue Jul 23, 2019 3:10 pm

Thanks. I guess my inspection trailed off near end. Fixed.

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