Scoring decline and possible NBA response

[Crow]

After last lockout's offensive decline the league bounced back sharply the next season but couldn't hold it and gave it back over the next few seasons. The drift downward on offensive rating was more than a decade long and eventually took rule pretty major changes to reverse.

If the decline continues into next season, I'd expect a change. If they don't act then, I'd expect they'll get around to acting before the national network contract negotiations. If the league doesn't directly care about high octane offense and teams scoring over 100, I'd think their TV partners care more and so the NBA will eventually care. It wouldn't make sense to me for them to sharply change things to break with the defensive era and then let it come back so quick- in less than a decade.

[wilq]

It probably is mainly the contracted season but if you look here http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/stats.html offensive rating is on a multi-year decline with this season being an exaggerated case but the third straight year to year decline. They might want to nip the problem

Do you suggest that players should hit free throws at an all-time efficiency every season?

I seriously think you are overreacting: 2007-08, 2009-10 and 2010-11 were in Top15 in all-time ORtg.
2008-09 is #1 in that category! So they've already made changes to free up action and in the name of offense I'd like to respond "I'm just fine thank you"

[Mike G]

The FTA/FGA ratio is 0.29, last season it was 0.3. The difference in ORtg due to this is 0.9 points per 100 possessions. That is hardly the lone reason for the 4.9 drop per 100 possessions. The players just missing more often open shots (even FT% is down from 76.3 to 74.5), they are turning it over more often...
The drop in eFG% is responsible for 3.2 points per 100 possessions, leaving us with 0.9 points per 100 possessions due to more turnovers.

That's a good breakdown; thanks.

Lower FT% still may be a flag of sorts. It doesn't cause more turnovers or lead to also missing 3's, but the FT% drop is more dramatic than any since '93 to '94.
The biggest increase in FT% was '99 to '00, .728 to .750 . Other shooting% also jumped at the time.

[EvanZ]

Maybe the FT% has dropped because proportionally more big men (worse foul shooters) are being fouled? I mean, if guys like Kevin Martin aren't getting to the line, because of the new rule, big men still are. Just a thought.

[xkonk]

Maybe the FT% has dropped because proportionally more big men (worse foul shooters) are being fouled? I mean, if guys like Kevin Martin aren't getting to the line, because of the new rule, big men still are. Just a thought.

Sounds plausible, although someone would have to check the data. The compressed schedule means tired legs, which maybe means less slashing and driving to the basket and maybe worse free throwing shooting when players do drive. Tired legs also predicts lower percentages on jump shots.