2012-13 Rookies

[Mike G]

After 2 to 4 games per team, about 4% of the season. Assuming current % of minutes and games played, projected to the whole season.

Code: Select all

e82    per36 rates    tm  Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
7.9   Lillard,Damian Por   37  .524   18.8   3.7   7.1   1.2    .7   2.9   .0   1.26
6.1   Davis,Anthony  NOH   22  .644   29.7  11.5    .0    .0   1.7    .9  2.6   2.49
4.9   Waiters,Dion   Cle   29  .586   21.2   3.1   2.4   1.3   1.6   2.9   .3   1.01
4.4 Kidd-Gilchrist,M Cha   24  .385   10.1   9.5   2.0   1.6   3.9   3.1  2.4   1.11
3.6 Valanciunas,Jona Tor   19  .333   10.9  11.9   2.8   6.4    .0   1.3  2.6   1.10

3.4   Crowder,Jae    Dal   20  .574   16.9   5.2   2.0   4.7   1.4    .5   .5   1.02
3.2   Zeller,Tyler   Cle   19  .476   14.3   9.5   1.4   4.9   2.0   2.0   .5   1.02
3.1   Prigioni,Pablo NYK   19  .591   10.5   1.3  11.3   3.9   2.6   4.6   .0    .97
3.0   Drummond,Andre Det   18  .480    7.8  12.2    .6   4.1   1.4   2.0  3.4    .97
2.3   Ezeli,Festus   GSW   18  .409    9.0   9.9    .0   4.7   2.6   2.1  2.1    .77

e82    per36 rates    tm  Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
2.2   Singler,Kyle   Det   22  .765   15.3   5.2    .9   2.8    .0   1.7   .6    .60
2.1  Sullinger,Jared Bos   19  .545    7.8  10.9    .0   5.9   1.3    .7  1.3    .66
1.8 Nicholson,Andrew Orl    9  .500   15.9   6.0   4.7   8.3    .0   2.1  2.1   1.16
1.5  Barnes,Harrison GSW   22  .536   13.1   2.7   3.1   5.5    .4   1.3   .0    .40
1.4  Robinson,Thomas Sac   15  .455   13.7   6.9    .0   7.0   3.8   3.2   .0    .58

1.3   Leonard,Meyers Por   20  .538    6.6   8.5    .9   3.7    .0    .9  1.4    .40
1.1   English,Kim    Det   17  .533   11.6   1.6   3.0   2.9   2.2   2.2   .7    .41
0.8   James,Bernard  Dal    9  .500   11.6   8.7   1.5   5.8   1.4   1.4   .0    .75
0.6   Rivers,Austin  NOH   29  .300    7.5   2.6   4.1   3.4   2.1   2.9   .4    .12
0.5   Miller,Darius  NOH   14  .300    2.5   4.4   4.3   4.3   3.4   1.7   .0    .19

Anthony Davis has played 2 of 3 games, and 44 minutes; so his e82 (eWins in 82 team games) assumes he averages 44 minutes per 3 games.
The Hornets have given 26% of minutes to 4 rookies.

East rookies project to 29 eW, West rookies to 28 eW.

[Crow]

What is the deal with Barnes and rebounding? Now and in college?

[kjb]

Mike: What's average for the league? Just as a benchmark for rookie performances.

[Mike G]

This year, in a total of 1588 minutes, rookies have 2.35 eWins. That's .71 eW/484 min.
Last year, rookies totaled 69.7 eW in 48,092 min., or .70 eW/484
In 2010-11, it was 66.8 eW in 48,919 min, or .66 eW/484.

The raw median e484 last year for rookies was .50, and for veterans it was .75

[Mike G]

At 7.6% of the season, rookies total 59 projected eWins.

Code: Select all

e82    per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
7.5   Lillard,Damian Por   38  .538   18.1   3.4   6.2   1.6   1.3   3.0   .0   1.17
6.7   Davis,Anthony  NOH   27  .578   27.1  11.0    .9    .9   1.8    .9  3.6   2.49
6.6 Kidd-Gilchrist,M Cha   30  .540   14.1   9.3   1.3   2.9   1.9   2.2  2.6   1.30
4.4   Beal,Bradley   Was   30  .533   17.1   4.6   2.2   1.9   1.2   2.4   .5    .87
4.4   Waiters,Dion   Cle   28  .590   19.7   2.8   2.6   1.8   1.1   2.2   .4    .92

4.0   Drummond,Andre Det   16  .686   14.8  10.9    .8   2.9   1.2   1.5  2.1   1.48
3.4 Valanciunas,Jona Tor   20  .490   13.9  10.5   1.8   5.3    .0   2.1  1.5   1.02
2.1   Roberts,Brian  NOH   15  .519   17.3   2.3   6.5   2.2    .0   1.7   .0   1.02
2.0   Prigioni,Pablo NYK   17  .500    7.8   1.5   9.2   3.5   2.0   3.5   .0    .72
1.7  Sullinger,Jared Bos   18  .524    7.0   9.8    .7   4.5    .6   1.0  1.3    .58

e82    per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1.7   Crowder,Jae    Dal   22  .568   12.5   4.3   1.7   4.1    .9   1.4   .2    .47
1.6   Leonard,Meyers Por   19  .571    6.8   8.4    .8   3.8    .3    .9  1.2    .51
1.6   Singler,Kyle   Det   21  .600   11.9   4.6    .4   2.8    .2   1.1  1.8    .45
1.6   Zeller,Tyler   Cle   19  .476   12.9   8.9   1.3   4.5   1.8   1.8   .5    .90
1.5  Barnes,Harrison GSW   24  .532   13.0   3.6   1.9   5.0    .6   1.9   .2    .38

1.5 Nicholson,Andrew Orl   12  .588   15.4   6.4    .8   6.5    .0   1.9  1.4    .74
1.2  Teletovic,Mirza Brk    9  .433   15.2   7.3   3.6   1.1   2.3    .0   .0   1.25
1.0   Ezeli,Festus   GSW   16  .393    6.2   8.6    .0   4.2   1.5   1.8  1.5    .36
0.8  Robinson,Thomas Sac   14  .449   10.7   8.5    .0   6.6   3.3   3.8   .5    .49
0.8  James,Bernard   Dal    9  .538   10.0  10.5    .7   5.6    .7   1.4   .0    .72

[Mike G]

At 10.5% of the season, rookies headed for 61 total eWins.

Code: Select all

e82    per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
7.8   Lillard,Damian Por   38  .558   19.5   3.5   6.1   1.8   1.3   3.3   .1   1.22
6.0 Kidd-Gilchrist,M Cha   28  .534   15.6   9.1   1.9   3.9   1.6   2.5  2.3   1.28
5.8   Davis,Anthony  NOH   28  .500   19.3  11.3   1.0   1.9   1.6   1.4  3.5   1.75
4.3 Valanciunas,Jona Tor   20  .532   16.9  10.8   2.2   5.8    .7   2.2  1.2   1.29
3.9   Drummond,Andre Det   15  .667   16.3  10.3   1.0   3.6   1.7   1.9  2.3   1.50

3.8   Waiters,Dion   Cle   29  .535   18.0   3.2   2.6   1.9   1.3   2.3   .3    .78
3.5  Barnes,Harrison GSW   27  .556   16.0   6.3   1.7   4.2    .6   2.0   .2    .78
3.0   Beal,Bradley   Was   29  .458   15.1   4.3   2.0   2.4   1.3   2.1   .4    .62
2.1   Singler,Kyle   Det   23  .596   14.2   4.3    .5   3.7    .3    .9  1.3    .53
2.1   Crowder,Jae    Dal   20  .584   14.0   4.3   2.1   4.0   1.1   1.4   .4    .63

2.0   Roberts,Brian  NOH   16  .500   16.2   2.1   6.1   1.7    .7   2.0   .0    .85
1.9   Leonard,Meyers Por   18  .576    7.6   8.2    .6   3.7    .6    .8  1.4    .61
1.8   Prigioni,Pablo NYK   12  .579    9.5   1.5   7.6   3.7   2.6   2.6   .0    .87
1.5 Nicholson,Andrew Orl   12  .553   16.8   6.2    .6   4.7    .7   2.0  1.3    .73
1.3  Sullinger,Jared Bos   16  .540    6.7   7.9   1.5   5.1    .5    .7  1.2    .49

e82    per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1.2 Harkless,Maurice Orl   17  .432    6.9   8.1    .7   3.5   1.6    .8  3.1    .70
1.2   Zeller,Tyler   Cle   19  .476   12.0   8.8   1.2   4.4   1.8   1.8   .4    .78
1.2   James,Bernard  Dal   11  .589   12.9  10.7    .4   4.0    .4   2.2   .7    .83
1.2   Ezeli,Festus   GSW   16  .438    6.4   9.0    .2   4.1   1.2   1.9  1.5    .42
1.1  Robinson,Thomas Sac   17  .521   10.9   6.9    .7   5.6   2.5   2.5   .3    .51

0.8  Teletovic,Mirza Brk    9  .433   14.5   7.2   3.7   1.1   2.2    .0   .0   1.13
0.6   Henson,John    Mil   13  .433   15.9   5.4   1.3   5.1   1.3   1.3  5.1    .98
0.5   Miller,Darius  NOH   15  .545    6.2   2.6   2.4   3.1   2.2   1.2   .3    .20
0.4   Rivers,Austin  NOH   30  .380    8.0   2.9   3.4   2.7   1.5   2.5   .2    .10
0.3   English,Kim    Det   11  .545    9.9   2.1   2.6   3.2   1.2   1.6   .8    .22

[Mike G]

At 1/8 of the season, rookies are suddenly looking at a combined 67 eWins.

Code: Select all

e82    per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
7.6   Lillard,Damian Por   38  .559   19.5   3.4   5.9   1.9   1.5   3.2   .1  1.19
6.6 Kidd-Gilchrist,M Cha   27  .530   16.5   9.7   2.2   3.8   1.5   2.6  2.1  1.43
6.5   Davis,Anthony  NOH   28  .555   22.4  11.7   1.1   2.4   1.3   2.0  2.8  1.82
4.2   Drummond,Andre Det   15  .667   16.1  10.9    .9   3.9   1.8   1.8  2.1  1.59
3.9  Barnes,Harrison GSW   28  .555   16.1   6.4   1.6   3.4    .8   2.0   .1   .82

3.4 Valanciunas,Jona Tor   20  .503   14.4  10.4   1.7   6.2    .7   2.4  1.1   .99
2.9   Beal,Bradley   Was   27  .473   16.2   3.8   1.8   2.1   1.2   2.3   .6   .63
2.9   Waiters,Dion   Cle   29  .484   16.4   3.0   2.3   1.8   1.4   2.3   .3   .58
2.6   Singler,Kyle   Det   23  .608   15.7   4.4    .8   4.1    .3   1.1  1.2   .66
2.4  Sullinger,Jared Bos   18  .585   10.5   9.2   1.1   4.8    .5    .9   .9   .80

e82    per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
2.0   Roberts,Brian  NOH   16  .520   16.8   1.9   6.7   2.1    .6   2.4   .0   .87
2.0   Ezeli,Festus   GSW   17  .494    8.1   9.8    .2   4.1   1.0   2.0  1.6   .71
1.9   Leonard,Meyers Por   18  .576    7.5   8.1    .6   4.4    .6   1.0  1.3   .63
1.8 Harkless,Maurice Orl   16  .458    7.9   9.7   1.0   3.0   1.2    .6  2.4   .96
1.7   Crowder,Jae    Dal   18  .575   13.6   4.2   2.0   4.0   1.0   1.4   .3   .60

1.7   Prigioni,Pablo NYK   13  .458    7.6   1.7   8.1   3.2   2.6   2.6   .0   .78
1.6   James,Bernard  Dal   12  .562   11.7  10.8    .3   3.6    .3   1.9  2.2   .93
1.6 Nicholson,Andrew Orl   12  .518   16.4   6.7    .7   4.2    .5   1.9  1.3   .74
1.3  Robinson,Thomas Sac   17  .519   10.5   7.2   1.1   5.6   2.2   2.5   .2   .55
1.2   Zeller,Tyler   Cle   21  .470    9.5   7.7   1.2   4.2   1.3   1.8   .8   .56

A bunch of these guys have gotten more minutes in the last few games.

[Crow]

Drummond 4th best here on e82. 3rd best on e484. Might be best on e82 if / when they turn him loose for big minutes. He is validating some of the positive feeling I had for him from pre-season. Terrible defense though. Biggest minute Monroe-Drummond lineup has a ridiculously low 4 minutes for the season. Probably should try it 5-10 minutes per game for awhile and see how it does.

[Mike G]

Aren't Monroe and Drummond both centers?
They total 49.5 mpg, and nobody else is listed as a C.
At PF, Maxiell and Jerebko total 44 min. Prince may have had to play some PF.

[Crow]

It is speculated that Monroe might be able to play NBA PF ok or well. Only been tried about 20 minutes this season. it was bad but this is a team that needs to experiment and find things that work better than the current setup. Detroit PFs overall are getting beat on PER, Pts, Rebs according to 82games. http://www.82games.com/1213/1213DET5.HTM If Drummond moved up to 25 minutes it would mean Monroe would play 23 minutes at C and 12 at PF. You might be able to find the right 12 minutes for that. try it 10-20 games. This season means nothing unless they find something better than what they have right now.

[Mike G]

The season's games are 15.4% played, and rookies are projecting to 70 eWins -- almost 40 in the East.

Code: Select all

e82    per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
8.2   Lillard,Damian Por   37  .586   21.6   3.3   5.8   1.6   1.3   3.2   .2  1.30
6.8 Kidd-Gilchrist,M Cha   28  .532   16.2   9.5   2.0   4.2   1.8   2.1  2.0  1.43
4.7 Valanciunas,Jona Tor   22  .541   15.0  10.8   1.9   5.5    .5   2.2  1.5  1.24
4.4   Davis,Anthony  NOH   28  .555   21.7  11.7   1.0   2.4   1.3   2.0  2.8  1.67
4.2   Drummond,Andre Det   16  .618   15.4  11.2    .9   3.6   1.7   1.7  2.0  1.53

3.9   Shved, Alexey  Min   12  .487   15.8   4.3   6.1   2.0    .6   2.5   .9  1.02
3.8  Barnes,Harrison GSW   28  .543   14.9   6.8   1.6   3.4    .8   2.0   .1   .79
3.3   Beal,Bradley   Was   28  .466   15.1   4.9   2.6   2.5   1.1   2.5   .8   .69
3.1   Waiters,Dion   Cle   31  .478   16.6   3.0   2.8   1.9   1.3   1.9   .2   .59
2.5  Sullinger,Jared Bos   18  .580   10.0   9.6   1.0   5.0    .6    .9   .9   .82

2.4   Crowder,Jae    Dal   19  .595   15.1   4.7   2.0   3.6   1.6   1.3   .3   .82
2.3   Ezeli,Festus   GSW   17  .459    7.3  10.8    .3   4.4    .8   1.9  2.0   .83
2.2 Harkless,Maurice Orl   17  .482    9.2   9.4   1.3   3.5   1.2    .7  2.1  1.04
2.1   Leonard,Meyers Por   18  .578    7.9   7.5    .6   4.5    .8    .9  1.5   .68
1.9 Nicholson,Andrew Orl   13  .565   18.0   6.6   1.0   4.8    .4   2.3  1.3   .85

e82    per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
1.9   Singler,Kyle   Det   24  .575   13.2   4.1    .9   4.0    .2   1.1  1.0   .46
1.8   James,Bernard  Dal   12  .571   11.6  10.8    .2   3.4    .5   1.7  2.9  1.12
1.5  Robinson,Thomas Sac   16  .551   11.9   7.8   1.1   5.5   1.9   2.9   .4   .67
1.5   Prigioni,Pablo NYK   13  .435    6.8   2.8   7.4   3.0   2.7   3.2   .0   .72
1.3   Roberts,Brian  NOH   16  .507   16.1   1.8   4.7   2.1    .4   2.3   .0   .54

1.3   Taylor,Jeffery Cha   24  .494   10.9   3.9   1.0   2.9   1.4   1.5   .7   .34
1.3   Henson,John    Mil   13  .500   16.1  11.8    .4   5.7    .9   1.8  2.2  1.09
1.2   Zeller,Tyler   Cle   22  .431    8.7   8.1   1.1   4.6   1.0   1.7   .5   .45
0.8   Rivers,Austin  NOH   28  .409    8.3   2.8   3.3   2.2   1.0   2.1   .3   .19
0.6   Green,Draymond GSW   12  .436    6.4   7.8   1.2   5.7   1.4   1.6   .2   .32
0.6   Miller,Darius  NOH   13  .568    5.6   3.3   2.2   3.5   1.8   1.0   .3   .29

EDIT: Alexey Shved (Min) had been overlooked until now. Rookies are now projecting to 74 eWins for the full season.

[EvanZ]

What is the deal with Barnes and rebounding? Now and in college?

Well, maybe Barnes read this and it lit a fire under his ass. Because he's rebounding like a mad man now.

[Crow]

I see that he is having a big rebounding game every 2-3 outings. But he has 3 or less rebounds in half the games over the young season and still in 2 of the last 5.

Team rebounding rates not much different with or without him (plus and minus 1% of the 2 sides of the court). Not his primary responsibility but I thought it was worth mentioning as a cue to watch it over time.

[Mike G]

With 19% of the season completed.

Code: Select all

e82    per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
6.9   Lillard,Damian Por   37  .542   19.5   3.4   5.6   2.0   1.4   3.2   .2   1.11
5.7 Kidd-Gilchrist,M Cha   27  .511   14.9   9.1   1.9   3.5   1.6   2.0  1.8   1.24
4.8 Valanciunas,Jona Tor   24  .547   14.8   9.6   2.0   4.6    .4   2.2  1.8   1.18
3.8   Shved,Alexey   Min   24  .520   16.1   3.6   5.1   2.0    .8   2.6   .6    .93
3.6   Drummond,Andre Det   17  .542   11.8  12.0    .6   3.8   1.6   1.8  2.3   1.25

3.5  Barnes,Harrison GSW   27  .524   14.1   6.7   1.8   3.3    .8   1.9   .1    .76
3.5   Davis,Anthony  NOH   28  .555   21.6  11.9   1.0   2.4   1.3   2.0  2.9   1.68
3.4   Singler,Kyle   Det   27  .609   14.2   4.8   1.3   4.1    .6   1.0   .8    .76
3.3   Waiters,Dion   Cle   32  .468   17.0   2.7   3.4   2.0   1.5   2.2   .2    .62
2.6  Sullinger,Jared Bos   18  .558   10.7   9.4   1.1   5.0    .8   1.0   .7    .83

2.6   Ezeli,Festus   GSW   17  .468    7.1  10.4    .3   4.3   1.0   1.9  2.1    .91
2.5   Beal,Bradley   Was   28  .461   14.5   4.5   2.1   2.0   1.0   2.4   .7    .54
2.4   Leonard,Meyers Por   19  .582    9.2   7.5    .4   4.3    .8   1.0  1.6    .75
2.4   Prigioni,Pablo NYK   15  .563    8.9   2.8   7.2   2.8   2.1   2.9   .0   1.02
2.3 Harkless,Maurice Orl   18  .504    9.1   9.0    .9   3.1   1.3   1.0  1.8    .96

e82    per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
2.0   Crowder,Jae    Dal   20  .542   12.3   4.7   2.0   3.8   1.7   1.2   .4    .63
1.8   Taylor,Jeffery Cha   25  .538   12.0   3.5   1.1   3.3   1.8   1.5   .5    .47
1.7   James,Bernard  Dal   12  .570   10.6  10.2    .2   3.3    .7   1.5  2.6   1.10
1.6   Roberts,Brian  NOH   16  .542   18.1   1.8   4.7   2.1    .5   2.3   .0    .64
1.6 Nicholson,Andrew Orl   14  .584   17.7   5.6    .7   3.9    .3   2.0   .9    .69

1.6   Henson,John    Mil   13  .504   16.3  10.7   1.1   5.6    .6   1.7  2.0   1.08
1.5  Robinson,Thomas Sac   16  .511   10.5   8.2   1.3   4.8   1.5   2.7   .8    .63
1.2   Miller,Darius  NOH   15  .623    6.2   4.3   2.2   4.1   1.4    .8   .3    .53
1.1   Rivers,Austin  NOH   28  .412    8.3   3.1   3.7   2.7   1.0   2.1   .3    .25
1.0   Zeller,Tyler   Cle   22  .441    8.1   7.4   1.1   4.9    .8   1.7   .6    .36

[Crow]

It appears that no rookie has yet managed to get a positive rating on prior-informed new XRAPM. Waiters the best currently at -1.3? Crowder -1.7, then MKG at -1.9. Anthony Davis at -3.6 (in fewer games). With more time, they have a better chance to do so.