2012-13 Rookies

DSMok1 · Post by **DSMok1** » Mon Dec 03, 2012 10:05 pm

Crow wrote:It appears that no rookie has yet managed to get a positive rating on prior-informed new XRAPM. Waiters the best currently at -1.3? Crowder -1.7, then MKG at -1.9. Anthony Davis at -3.6 (in fewer games). With more time, they have a better chance to do so.

That's more a problem with xRAPM than anything else. All of the players that aged from last season to this are still assumed (the prior) to be at their level from last season--and the decline in lineup performance is thrown on the rookies.

Crow · Post by **Crow** » Mon Dec 03, 2012 10:22 pm

Rookie performance measuring was a key reason that the non-prior informed RAPM was valuable to have in addition to the prior-informed version.

J.E. · Post by **J.E.** » Mon Dec 03, 2012 11:02 pm

DSMok1 wrote:All of the players that aged from last season to this are still assumed (the prior) to be at their level from last season

85% of the performance of last season.
Remember that rookies start out with -1/-1, because that gave best prediction results (and is thus our best guess of what an average rookie does in his first season).
If rookies of the past had performed better in comparison to non-rookies, the prior would be higher; but they haven't.
Moving away from the -1 prior is definitely possible, even in limited minutes (see Anthony Davis, -1 -> -2.6)

DSMok1 · Post by **DSMok1** » Tue Dec 04, 2012 1:29 pm

J.E. wrote:
DSMok1 wrote:All of the players that aged from last season to this are still assumed (the prior) to be at their level from last season
85% of the performance of last season.
Remember that rookies start out with -1/-1, because that gave best prediction results (and is thus our best guess of what an average rookie does in his first season).
If rookies of the past had performed better in comparison to non-rookies, the prior would be higher; but they haven't.
Moving away from the -1 prior is definitely possible, even in limited minutes (see Anthony Davis, -1 -> -2.6)

85%... does that mean that below-average players are assumed to increase, even as they age? That's not good... there are a ton of below-average, older than 27 players in the league. There is likely some measure of systematic bias due to aging going on (I'm sure you are aware of that.)

You also might consider draft pick number in assigning the prior, when you have time. It is pretty significant.

KAN · Post by **KAN** » Tue Dec 04, 2012 2:35 pm

I like both of those suggestions from DSMok. Clearly draft pick order is going to be significant in predicting the value of a rookie. I'm not sure how much value an aging curve adds but I'd be interested to see.

Mike G · Post by **Mike G** » Mon Dec 10, 2012 10:52 pm

Season now 24% played, and rookies are headed for 65 eWins -- 36 in the East, 29 in the West.

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e82    per36 rates     tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
7.8   Lillard,Damian  Por   38   .549   19.6   3.3   6.0   1.2   3.1   .2   1.22
5.7  Kidd-Gilchrist,M Cha   27   .533   14.4   8.6   2.3   1.3   2.1  1.9   1.22
3.9   Shved,Alexey    Min   25   .525   16.4   3.7   4.9    .9   2.8   .7    .93
3.9   Drummond,Andre  Det   18   .554   11.8  11.6    .7   1.5   1.4  2.2   1.26
3.7  Valanciunas,Jona Tor   23   .536   13.0   9.0   1.8    .5   2.1  1.8    .95

3.4   Beal,Bradley    Was   28   .467   15.4   4.6   2.5   1.2   2.1   .8    .73
3.3   Barnes,Harrison GSW   28   .507   12.5   6.6   2.1    .8   1.7   .2    .71
3.1   Waiters,Dion    Cle   32   .459   16.9   2.9   3.5   1.4   2.2   .2    .71
2.8   Davis,Anthony   NOH   28   .555   21.4  11.9   1.0   1.3   2.0  2.9   1.82
2.3   Sullinger,Jared Bos   18   .535    9.9   9.9   1.0    .6   1.1  1.0    .75

2.2   Singler,Kyle    Det   28   .582   12.8   4.7   1.1    .6   1.4   .7    .48
2.1  Nicholson,Andrew Orl   14   .598   19.0   6.1   1.0    .7   1.9   .7    .92
2.0   Prigioni,Pablo  NYK   14   .581    8.6   3.1   6.9   2.1   2.7   .0    .88
1.9   Roberts,Brian   NOH   17   .530   16.5   2.1   4.5    .8   2.2   .1    .68
1.6  Harkless,Maurice Orl   18   .475    7.5   7.8   1.0   1.2    .9  1.5    .62

e82    per36 rates     tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1.6   Leonard,Meyers  Por   18   .579    8.6   7.1    .3    .7   1.1  1.8    .50
1.5   Zeller,Tyler    Cle   22   .458    9.8   8.4   1.1    .7   1.7   .9    .48
1.5   Ezeli,Festus    GSW   16   .448    6.5   9.5    .4    .9   1.9  2.2    .53
1.4   Crowder,Jae     Dal   19   .468   10.1   4.7   2.0   2.0   1.2   .5    .45
1.2   Robinson,Thomas Sac   16   .473    9.3   8.1   1.6   1.5   2.6   .9    .49

1.2   Henson,John     Mil   12   .463   13.8   9.4   1.2    .6   1.7  1.5    .83
1.1   Taylor,Jeffery  Cha   26   .514   10.5   3.4   1.3   1.4   1.3   .5    .26
1.1   James,Bernard   Dal   12   .528    9.2   9.3    .2    .5   1.4  2.5    .71
1.0   Decolo,Nando    SAS   13   .491    9.7   4.8   5.3   1.1   3.1   .3    .61
0.8   O'Quinn,Kyle    Orl    6   .524   11.4  11.7   2.6    .5   1.4  3.3   1.55

Crow · Post by **Crow** » Mon Dec 10, 2012 11:18 pm

Kyle O'Quinn has great boxscore stats per minute in small minutes. Great counterpart stats at PF. Great raw +/-. XRAPM still have him negative but moving up from initial replacement level. has yet to get 9+ minutes in a game. I don't know hardly anything about him before a few minutes ago but I think I'd try higher minutes at least a few times later this season and see what he does with them. Ayon is down from what he was last season on boxscore stats but has a modestly positive xRAPM. Davis only about neutral on xRAPM. IPV doesn't currently like 0'Quinn but also has Ayon's and Davis' estimates lower than xRAPM by about a point each. I doubt they make the playoffs and not sure they really want to, so now or soon seems a pretty good time for experimentation.

Mike G · Post by **Mike G** » Mon Dec 17, 2012 4:01 pm

The season is at 28.4%

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e82    per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
8.2   Lillard,Damian Por   38  .540   20.0   3.5   5.9   2.1   1.1   2.9   .2  1.27
5.3 Kidd-Gilchrist,M Cha   28  .526   14.1   8.8   2.2   3.6   1.1   2.1  1.7  1.12
4.4   Shved,Alexey   Min   26  .531   16.2   3.4   5.2   2.4   1.1   2.6   .5   .99
3.9 Valanciunas,Jona Tor   23  .544   13.3   9.3   1.8   5.0    .5   2.3  2.0  1.01
3.8   Beal,Bradley   Was   29  .472   15.9   4.7   2.5   2.5   1.2   2.3   .7   .77

3.7   Drummond,Andre Det   18  .560   11.3  11.5    .7   3.3   1.4   1.3  2.4  1.18
3.4  Barnes,Harrison GSW   27  .500   13.2   6.4   2.3   2.9    .9   1.7   .2   .76
3.2   Davis,Anthony  NOH   29  .564   19.3  10.1    .9   2.7   1.4   2.3  2.6  1.50
2.9   Waiters,Dion   Cle   32  .459   17.4   2.9   3.5   2.0   1.4   2.2   .2   .78
2.2 Nicholson,Andrew Orl   15  .589   17.9   6.7    .8   3.8    .6   1.7   .9   .88

e82    per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
2.1  Sullinger,Jared Bos   17  .513    9.3  10.2   1.0   4.9    .7   1.1  1.0   .71
2.1   Singler,Kyle   Det   28  .547   11.8   4.9   1.4   4.0    .6   1.3   .6   .43
2.0   Roberts,Brian  NOH   17  .525   16.4   2.0   4.4   1.9    .9   2.0   .1   .71
1.7   Prigioni,Pablo NYK   14  .550    7.4   3.7   6.4   2.8   2.2   2.5   .0   .77
1.5 Harkless,Maurice Orl   18  .450    7.1   7.9   1.0   3.3   1.2   1.0  2.1   .57

1.4   Zeller,Tyler   Cle   22  .478    9.8   8.0   1.1   4.6    .8   1.8   .7   .45
1.4   Crowder,Jae    Dal   19  .470   10.1   4.6   2.2   3.6   2.0   1.1   .4   .48
1.2   Leonard,Meyers Por   18  .578    8.2   7.1    .3   4.0    .7   1.0  1.6   .42
1.1   Rivers,Austin  NOH   28  .434    9.8   3.1   3.2   2.7    .9   1.8   .2   .25
1.1   Decolo,Nando   SAS   12  .504   10.3   4.9   4.7   2.2   1.3   2.8   .4   .65

e82    per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1.0   Henson,John    Mil   12  .440   12.5   9.4   1.1   4.4    .6   1.5  1.8   .77
0.9  Robinson,Thomas Sac   16  .446    8.2   8.1   1.4   4.1   1.2   2.5   .9   .36
0.9   Ezeli,Festus   GSW   16  .432    6.0   9.1    .4   5.4    .8   2.0  2.1   .35
0.8   Taylor,Jeffery Cha   26  .508    9.7   3.5   1.3   3.2   1.3   1.2   .4   .20
0.8   James,Bernard  Dal   11  .519    8.1   9.2    .2   3.5    .5   1.3  2.4   .57

0.6   O'Quinn,Kyle   Orl    6  .524   11.5  11.4   2.6   4.2    .5   1.9  3.2  1.37
0.5   Green,Draymond GSW   14  .339    4.7   8.5   1.3   5.1   1.6   1.4   .6   .19
0.4   Copeland,Chris NYK    6  .554   19.4   3.1   1.6   2.2    .7   1.4   .4   .74
0.4   Jones,Terrence Hou    9  .472   10.9   6.5   1.8   1.1   1.1   1.1  1.1   .59
0.3   Ross,Terrence  Tor   17  .447   10.3   4.2   1.2   3.5   1.2   1.6   .5   .12

talkingpractice · Post by **talkingpractice** » Mon Dec 17, 2012 5:45 pm

We've begun posting a Top 10 Rookies list on our site. Here they are as of Dec 14th by IPV, with comments on their priors below. The numbers are different if we look at production (ie consider MP more), with Lillard still quite a bit ahead, but Singler and MKG at least somewhere in sight. Those values are on the site too.

Rank Player IPV
1 Damian Lillard -0.27
2 Brian Roberts -0.77
3 Andre Drummond -0.87
4 Michael Kidd-Gilchrist -0.99
5 Andrew Nicholson -1.16
6 Kyle Singler -1.27
7 Alexey Shved -1.39
8 Dion Waiters -1.48
9 Frida -1.59
10 Jeff Taylor -1.80

Re: how we set their "prior". We set everyone into 4 bins based initially on draft position. But we then cheat in the sense of letting the players "prior" actually change a bit over the course of the early part of the season, while their MPG (adjusted for team SRS) settles in a bit. In other words, we use that info to reallocate players a bit between the bins, just during the first 20% of the season. Each of those bins is attached to a different value ranging from -1.5 for the bin of top rookies, to -3.3 for the guys who shouldn't be playing. After that, all is as normal.

Mike G · Post by **Mike G** » Mon Dec 17, 2012 9:55 pm

Who is "Frida"?

talkingpractice · Post by **talkingpractice** » Mon Dec 17, 2012 10:37 pm

Sorry, bad attempt at humor. The other famous unibrow = http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frida_Kahlo

EvanZ · Post by **EvanZ** » Mon Dec 17, 2012 11:38 pm

talkingpractice wrote:Sorry, bad attempt at humor. The other famous unibrow = http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frida_Kahlo

Funny, that's the only Frida I knew, but I didn't put 2 and 2 together. Makes sense.

Mike G · Post by **Mike G** » Mon Dec 24, 2012 6:02 pm

Season at 32.8%, rookies now project to 66.5 eWins added to their teams.

Code: Select all

e82    per36 rates    tm  Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
8.2   Lillard,Damian Por   38  .539   19.5   3.4   6.3   2.0   1.1   2.9   .2  1.27
5.6 Kidd-Gilchrist,M Cha   28  .546   14.5   8.6   2.2   3.3   1.1   2.1  1.8  1.17
4.2   Shved,Alexey   Min   27  .513   14.7   3.6   5.7   2.6   1.0   2.8   .4   .90
4.1 Valanciunas,Jona Tor   22  .553   13.8   9.5   1.8   4.9    .5   2.3  1.9  1.09
4.0   Drummond,Andre Det   19  .534   11.5  12.0    .8   3.1   1.3   1.3  2.5  1.25

3.8   Davis,Anthony  NOH   31  .556   17.9  10.4    .7   2.8   1.3   2.0  1.9  1.39
3.5   Beal,Bradley   Was   30  .462   15.7   4.5   2.5   2.5   1.2   2.1   .6   .74
2.9  Barnes,Harrison GSW   26  .475   12.4   6.3   2.1   2.9   1.0   1.6   .2   .66
2.9   Waiters,Dion   Cle   32  .450   17.0   3.1   3.6   2.4   1.4   2.4   .2   .74
2.2   Singler,Kyle   Det   29  .531   11.9   5.2   1.2   3.9    .6   1.3   .6   .45

e82    per36 rates    tm  Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
2.0  Sullinger,Jared Bos   17  .496    9.1  10.1   1.2   5.4    .7   1.2   .9   .68
1.9 Nicholson,Andrew Orl   15  .555   17.0   6.8    .8   3.8    .7   2.0   .8   .78
1.9 Harkless,Maurice Orl   17  .483    8.5   8.0    .9   3.2   1.5   1.1  1.9   .71
1.8   Prigioni,Pablo NYK   13  .571    8.9   3.6   6.5   3.0   2.2   2.4   .0   .83
1.7   Roberts,Brian  NOH   17  .509   15.4   2.0   4.3   2.0   1.1   2.1   .1   .63

1.7   Zeller,Tyler   Cle   24  .475   10.5   8.0   1.0   4.5    .8   1.7   .7   .49
1.3   Leonard,Meyers Por   17  .600    9.5   6.8    .4   4.0    .7   1.2  1.5   .47
1.3   Crowder,Jae    Dal   19  .459   10.4   4.7   2.0   3.7   1.9   1.1   .3   .44
1.3   Decolo,Nando   SAS   12  .540   10.8   4.6   5.3   2.6   1.3   2.9   .3   .73
1.1   Ezeli,Festus   GSW   16  .441    6.3  10.0    .5   5.3    .7   2.5  2.2   .43

e82    per36 rates    tm  Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
0.9   Henson,John    Mil   11  .447   12.8   9.3   1.0   4.4    .5   1.5  1.6   .79
0.9   Rivers,Austin  NOH   28  .422    9.8   3.4   2.9   2.8    .7   1.9   .2   .20
0.9   James,Bernard  Dal   12  .531    9.4   9.5    .3   3.2    .6   1.3  2.5   .72
0.9   Copeland,Chris NYK    9  .613   22.9   3.4   1.0   2.6    .9   1.5   .5  1.00
0.8   Green,Draymond GSW   15  .367    5.5   8.3   1.7   4.7   1.7   1.3   .6   .33
0.8  Robinson,Thomas Sac   16  .447    8.3   8.1   1.2   4.0   1.2   2.5  1.0   .33
0.8   Taylor,Jeffery Cha   24  .472    9.3   4.0   1.2   3.1   1.3   1.1   .4   .21

kai · Post by **kai** » Sat Jan 05, 2013 4:29 pm

any reason why Alexey Shved isn't on the list?

v-zero · Post by **v-zero** » Sat Jan 05, 2013 4:35 pm

He's third down from the top...

APBRmetrics

2012-13 Rookies

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