Mathketball wrote:gfarkas wrote:Mathketball wrote:Basically what I am doing is taking specific stats that I feel say something about a given player. The theory behind which stats I choose has come kind of been a combination of what I feel, what I have read, and insight I have gained from personal contacts. I started these formulas a few years ago in college and got together with an assistant coach from my college's team about preparing a report for him. Then I altered my formulas slightly based on some of his insight.
Mathketball wrote:What I'm striving for is complete objectivity.
Not sure how what you wrote in the first quote can be reconciled with the statement in the second quote.
Why? The whole idea is to remove biases by just looking at the numbers. I'm trying to build a formula based off of statistics that in theory say something about the players make-up or potential. I guess I don't understand how that wouldn't be objective.
Okay. You write that basically the crux of your system is to use statistics that you "feel say something about a given player" and that these are based on "what I feel", and then are arbitrarily "altered" based on some "insight" you receive through "personal contacts".
Are the feelings that led you to select certain statistics over others reproducible? Can they be validated? Do you have empirical and measurable evidence to support their selection?
And even then, what about these alterations you subsequently make? Are these based on systematic observation, measurement, and experiment, or do you just play around with the numbers until they "feel" right? By making these alterations, could one argue you are, in fact, introducing biases (those of the assistant coach with whom you interacted), rather than removing biases?
I feel blocked shots are especially valuable. They don't just deny a basket, but there's an intimidation factor involved. The other team is going to be scared to try to get near the basket again after you block their shot. Clearly, a blocked shot objectively reduces the the other team's scoring by... say... 6 to 8 points. Therefore, logically, a blocked shot is worth around 7 times as much as every point scored. Objectively, you should make sure to include blocked shots in your system, and they should be weighted at least 7 times as much as points scored.
Also, dunks are clearly more valuable than other baskets. Again, it comes down to intimidation. When a guy dunks the ball, the other team knows he means business... it makes a strong statement about the player's make-up and potential. Based on my objective insight, I would say dunks are worth 3 times as much as other baskets, and a system such as yours should adjust accordingly.
I assume you'll incorporate these modifications into your system, and I look forward to seeing the results of the updated formula.