Random Fun Stats

[siedemnastka]

idea is to use this area to share some interesting stuff that doesn't really warrant creating a new topic.

it's also a shameless attempt to kickstart my twitter account with some english-speaking followers. http://twitter.com/siedemnastkanba

sorry about that. hopefully you'll find some of the stats i'm going to share being good enough excuses.

following chart contains possession* efficiency** stats by month. from seasons 97/98 - 12/13.
obviously numbers from october and may aren't worth that much.
you could also keep in mind two lockout seasons. if you want to.

Month PPP
Oct 1.023
Nov 1.036
Dec 1.046
Jan 1.055
Feb 1.054
Mar 1.061
Apr 1.060
May 1.053

*offensive rebound does not create a new possession
**simple offensive efficiency rating. # of points/ # of offensive possessions. i generally use sth a little more sophisticated for my own purposes

[siedemnastka]

Possession efficiency by minute. Seasons 97/98 - 12/13
http://postimg.org/image/3ptckc13l/full/ - if you prefer an awful chart

1 0.966
2 1.014
3 1.039
4 1.057
5 1.068
6 1.074
7 1.075
8 1.066
9 1.080
10 1.070
11 1.072
12 0.961
13 0.994
14 1.014
15 1.029
16 1.033
17 1.049
18 1.066
19 1.073
20 1.082
21 1.098
22 1.097
23 1.114
24 1.003
25 0.978
26 1.035
27 1.042
28 1.061
29 1.060
30 1.072
31 1.064
32 1.074
33 1.087
34 1.072
35 1.074
36 0.965
37 0.985
38 1.018
39 1.037
40 1.038
41 1.044
42 1.061
43 1.071
44 1.077
45 1.080
46 1.080
47 1.080
48 1.127
49 0.985
50 1.050
51 1.061
52 1.040
53 1.117

last minutes of quarters are dirty for obvious reasons.
i could clean them up, but there's no point, really.

[siedemnastka]

Team-Seasons ordered by simple measure of offensive efficiency.
Seasons 97/98 - 12/13

first worst, then best.

team season PPP_off
DEN 2003 0.919
CHI 1999 0.920
CHI 2000 0.936
GSW 1998 0.947
CHA 2012 0.953
CLE 2003 0.959
CHI 2004 0.963
TOR 2004 0.964
MIA 2003 0.965
CHI 2001 0.968
LAC 2000 0.970
GSW 2001 0.970
GSW 1999 0.971
MEM 2002 0.977
VAN 1999 0.978
...
CLE 2010 1.123
ATL 2010 1.123
MIA 2011 1.124
CLE 2009 1.127
LAL 2009 1.128
DEN 2011 1.128
LAL 2008 1.129
MIA 2013 1.130
UTA 2008 1.134
POR 2009 1.135
PHX 2008 1.136
PHX 2009 1.138
PHX 2005 1.141
PHX 2007 1.143
PHX 2010 1.156

It's worth noting that Steve Nash's teams led the league in offensive efficiency *every single season* from 01/02 to 09/10. Nine seasons straight. This is just ridiculous.

[siedemnastka]

Re: last post. There are naturally things you should be aware of before you make any attempts to compare stats coming from different seasons.

Following table is a nice illustration of some of those issues.
http://postimg.org/image/wg8fkxpcz/ - another awful chart, if you prefer one

Code: Select all

Season   PPP (league-wide)
1998      1.045
1999      1.016
2000      1.035
2001      1.027
2002      1.042
2003      1.033
2004      1.025
2005      1.056
2006      1.060
2007      1.064
2008      1.073
2009      1.081
2010      1.077
2011      1.074
2012      1.046
2013      1.059

i'll probably share sth more tomorrow.

[Mike G]

Code: Select all

Possession efficiency by minute. Seasons 97/98 - 12/13
1    .966      13    .994      25    .978      37    .985      49    .985
2   1.014      14   1.014      26   1.035      38   1.018      50   1.050
3   1.039      15   1.029      27   1.042      39   1.037      51   1.061
4   1.057      16   1.033      28   1.061      40   1.038      52   1.040
5   1.068      17   1.049      29   1.060      41   1.044      53   1.117
6   1.074      18   1.066      30   1.072      42   1.061         
7   1.075      19   1.073      31   1.064      43   1.071         
8   1.066      20   1.082      32   1.074      44   1.077         
9   1.080      21   1.098      33   1.087      45   1.080         
10  1.070      22   1.097      34   1.072      46   1.080         
11  1.072      23   1.114      35   1.074      47   1.080         
12   .961      24   1.003      36    .965      48   1.127 
        
1st 1.045      2nd  1.054      3rd  1.049      4th  1.058      OT   1.051

I notice the first and last minute of every quarter seem to be worst for PPP.
Except for minute 48 -- garbage time? Without that final minute, 4th Q PPP avg 1.052
How do you assign the 'minute' in which a possession has occurred? Is it the beginning of the possession?
If so, then are the weak PPP for minutes 1, 13, 25, and 37 just due to that minute's "expiring" before a possession is finished?

Code: Select all

Month  PPP
Oct   1.023
Nov   1.036
Dec   1.046
Jan   1.055
Feb   1.054
Mar   1.061
Apr   1.060
May   1.053

This is great stuff. Maybe you'll do it for playoffs? In which case -- by round, rather than by month?

[Mike G]

Rather on the trivial side, some rainy day fun with TReb%, Ast%, Stl%, Blk%
Player-seasons since 1980, at least 1500 minutes, taking each pair of these stats:
No player is higher than these named, in Both stats, for a season.

Code: Select all

Ast and Blk      Ast%   Blk%  AxB      Reb and Ast     Reb%   Ast%   RxA
Stockton  1991   57.5    .3   1.7      Rodman   1995   29.7    8.5   25.2
Stockton  1990   57.4    .4   2.3      Rodman   1996   26.6   10.0   26.6
Stockton  1994   53.1    .5   2.7      Rodman   1997   25.6   11.4   29.2
Stockton  1995   52.6    .6   3.2      Camby    2011   24.1   11.7   28.2
A Miller  2002   49.8    .8   4.0      Love     2011   23.6   11.8   27.8
Wall      2013   43.9   1.8   7.9      Camby    2010   22.2   12.3   27.3
LeBron    2010   41.8   2.0   8.4      Love     2010   21.5   12.9   27.7
Wade      2007   40.5   2.5  10.1      Barkley  1998   20.9   16.6   34.7
Wade      2009   40.3   2.8  11.3      Barkley  1987   20.8   19.0   39.5
Wade      2012   27.3   3.1   8.5      Barkley  1997   20.7   20.6   42.6
Garnett   2004   24.4   4.0   9.8      Garnett  2005   20.3   27.1   55.0
Robinson  1994   21.6   5.4  11.7      Hill     1996   14.5   31.4   45.5
Kirilenko 2006   20.5   7.0  14.4      Hill     1997   14.2   36.0   51.1
Camby     2008   12.9   7.3   9.4      Kidd     2007   13.2   41.4   54.6
Camby     2005   12.0   7.4   8.9      Kidd     2008   12.0   44.0   52.8
Camby     2006   10.2   7.5   7.7      Magic    1989   11.7   48.6   56.9
Camby     1998    9.4   7.9   7.4      Magic    1991   10.9   49.3   53.7
Eaton     1983    9.2   9.2   8.5      Paul     2009    8.7   54.5   47.4
Bradley   1996    4.9   9.4   4.6      Stockton 1991    4.5   57.5   25.9
Ibaka     2012    2.5   9.8   2.5                  
Bol       1989    1.8  10.8   1.9                  
                              
Blk and Stl     Blk%   Stl%   BxS      Stl and Reb     Stl%   Reb%   SxR
Bol       1987  10.8    .6    .65      McMillan  1994   5.8    8.9   5.2
Ibaka     2012   9.8   1.0    .98      Robertson 1986   4.8   10.2   4.9
S Bradley 1996   9.4   1.1   1.03      Robertson 1991   4.7   10.5   4.9
S Bradley 1995   8.5   1.2   1.02      Pippen    1994   4.0   13.3   5.3
Camby     1998   7.9   1.8   1.42      Olajuwon  1989   3.3   19.8   6.5
Camby     2006   7.5   2.2   1.65      Olajuwon  1991   2.9   19.9   5.8
Robinson  1992   7.4   3.1   2.29      B Wallace 2002   2.5   21.0   5.3
Olajuwon  1989   5.5   3.3   1.82    Jer Williams '00   2.3   21.7   5.0
G Wallace 2006   4.7   3.7   1.74      Camby     2010   2.2   22.2   4.9
Jordan    1988   2.4   3.9    .94      Tarpley   1988   2.2   22.6   5.0
Pippen    1995   2.2   4.0    .88      Evans     2013   2.0   26.7   5.3
Artest    2002   1.7   4.5    .77      Rodman    1995   1.0   29.7   3.0
D Bradley 1980   1.3   4.8    .62                  
McMillan  1994    .8   5.8    .46                  
                              
Reb and Blk      Reb%   Blk%   R&B     Ast and Stl      Ast%   Stl%   AxS
Rodman    1995   29.7   1.0    3.0     Stockton  1991   57.5   3.8   21.9
Rodman    1992   26.2   1.3    3.4     Stockton  1988   54.8   4.0   21.9
Camby     2011   24.1   5.0   12.1     Stockton  1989   54.3   4.1   22.3
B Wallace 2003   23.2   5.9   13.7     Stockton  1987   47.6   4.4   20.9
D Howard  2010   22.0   6.0   13.2     McMillan  1994   27.3   5.8   15.8
Camby     2006   21.0   7.5   15.8                  
Mutombo   1995   19.9   7.5   14.9                  
Mutombo   1996   18.6   8.8   16.4                  
Ibaka     2012   15.9   9.8   15.6                  
Bol       1989   13.1  10.8   14.1                  

The 3rd columns don't have a unit, but are just multiples of the other 2 (ignore decimal) for comparison purposes.

[siedemnastka]

I notice the first and last minute of every quarter seem to be worst for PPP.
Except for minute 48 -- garbage time?

garbage time probably has some impact (nice subject for a later post), but in this case i'd blame it on teams purposely fouling great free-throw shooters in late-close-game situations.

Without that final minute, 4th Q PPP avg 1.052

just keep in mind that averaging those numbers isn't a perfect strategy due to differences in #s of possessions between various minutes.

How do you assign the 'minute' in which a possession has occurred? Is it the beginning of the possession?
If so, then are the weak PPP for minutes 1, 13, 25, and 37 just due to that minute's "expiring" before a possession is finished?

it's the end of possession. and there's no "minute expiring before a possession is finished" issue .

way i would explain this 'phenomenon': minutes 1, 13, 25, 37 *always* contain at least one dead-ball possession. and those bring less points than, e.g. transition offense does. they also take more time. so combine it with my methodology, where i group possessions by when they end, and not when they begin, and you'll see that the structure of 'first minute' possessions is different.

also, obviously: teams are never in penalty this early in the period (but same goes for minutes 2 and 3)

This is great stuff. Maybe you'll do it for playoffs? In which case -- by round, rather than by month?

thanks!
regarding the playoffs, i'm not sure how interesting realisation of this particular idea would be.
anyway, i still haven't even downloaded playoff data, even though the whole process would probably take less than 2h. so much undiscovered goods in regular season pbp, still.

[siedemnastka]

Average FT% on second attempts has been around 4.5 pctg points higher than on the first. Over the last 18 seasons.

(Based only on trips to the line for specifically 2 free throws)

[Crow]

New coach in Boston but team shot distribution still doesn't seem driven by expected efficiencies by shot distance. Below average on inside shots, FTAs and three point attempts. Above average on attempts from most mid-range distances. Somewhat above average in hitting some of them but these are still the worst shots. Celtics had far better shot distribution in first season with big 3 that won a title and then continuously drifted away from that to a below average distribution. Analytics certainly wasn't and isn't successfully driving shot selection there and many other places too.

[siedemnastka]

statistically, this season, no team in the league has been defending worse off of its misses than Miami Heat.