APBR-DraftExpress 2015 NBA Draft Project

[ampersand5]

I did the same thing for the 2008 draft (which was a pretty wild draft class):

Code: Select all

+-------------+-------------+
| Correlation |    Input    |
+-------------+-------------+
| 0.855172414 | draft-mock  |
| 0.590661325 | draft-model |
| 0.266995074 | draft-vorp  |
| 0.495688266 | mock-model  |
| 0.2         | mock-vorp   |
| 0.411380631 | model-vorp  |
| 0.377454961 | 75/25       |
| 0.369950739 | 5050        |
+-------------+-------------+

[DSMok1]

I did the same thing for the 2008 draft (which was a pretty wild draft class):

Code: Select all

+-------------+-------------+
| Correlation |    Input    |
+-------------+-------------+
| 0.855172414 | draft-mock  |
| 0.590661325 | draft-model |
| 0.266995074 | draft-vorp  |
| 0.495688266 | mock-model  |
| 0.2         | mock-vorp   |
| 0.411380631 | model-vorp  |
| 0.377454961 | 75/25       |
| 0.369950739 | 5050        |
+-------------+-------------+

I'm not quite following--can you explain?

EDIT: OK, I see. VORP is the actual production in the NBA, then? Looks good for the models.

[Statman]

Here's what I use as the "exact" age for every prospect listed in this thread. I used 8/1/15 as the target DOB. So, a player born 8/1/92 would be about exactly 23 - or smack dab into his 23rd year around halfway through the '15-16 NBA season. Hopefully this might help someone:

Code: Select all

+-------------------------+------------+----------------+
|         Player          |    DOB     | Age for '15-16 |
+-------------------------+------------+----------------+
| Devin Booker            | 10/30/1996 | 18.75          |
| Rashad Vaughn           | 8/16/1996  | 18.96          |
| Stanley Johnson         | 5/29/1996  | 19.17          |
| Tyus Jones              | 5/10/1996  | 19.23          |
| Justise Winslow         | 3/26/1996  | 19.35          |
| Myles Turner            | 3/24/1996  | 19.35          |
| D'Angelo Russell        | 2/23/1996  | 19.44          |
| Kevon Looney            | 2/6/1996   | 19.48          |
| Jahlil Okafor           | 12/15/1995 | 19.63          |
| Kelly Oubre             | 12/9/1995  | 19.64          |
| Cliff Alexander         | 11/16/1995 | 19.71          |
| Karl Towns              | 11/15/1995 | 19.71          |
| Trey Lyles              | 11/5/1995  | 19.74          |
| Christian Wood          | 9/27/1995  | 19.84          |
| Dakari Johnson          | 9/22/1995  | 19.86          |
| Bobby Portis            | 2/10/1995  | 20.47          |
| Chris McCullough        | 2/5/1995   | 20.48          |
| Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | 1/3/1995   | 20.57          |
| Chris Walker            | 12/22/1994 | 20.61          |
| Andrew Harrison         | 10/20/1994 | 20.78          |
| Aaron Harrison          | 10/20/1994 | 20.78          |
| Cameron Payne           | 8/8/1994   | 20.98          |
| Vince Hunter            | 8/5/1994   | 20.99          |
| Brandon Ashley          | 7/15/1994  | 21.05          |
| Jordan Mickey           | 7/9/1994   | 21.06          |
| Jarell Martin           | 5/24/1994  | 21.19          |
| Sam Dekker              | 5/8/1994   | 21.23          |
| Terry Rozier            | 3/17/1994  | 21.37          |
| Michael Frazier         | 3/8/1994   | 21.40          |
| Marcus Thornton         | 2/8/1994   | 21.48          |
| Montrezl Harrell        | 1/26/1994  | 21.51          |
| Michael Qualls          | 1/20/1994  | 21.53          |
| Robert Upshaw           | 1/5/1994   | 21.57          |
| Keifer Sykes            | 12/30/1993 | 21.59          |
| Derrick Marks           | 12/14/1993 | 21.63          |
| Justin Anderson         | 11/19/1993 | 21.70          |
| Treveon Graham          | 10/28/1993 | 21.76          |
| R.J. Hunter             | 10/24/1993 | 21.77          |
| Richaun Holmes          | 10/19/1993 | 21.78          |
| J.P. Tokoto             | 9/15/1993  | 21.88          |
| Josh Richardson         | 9/15/1993  | 21.88          |
| Willie Cauley-Stein     | 8/18/1993  | 21.95          |
| Tyler Harvey            | 7/17/1993  | 22.04          |
| Wesley Saunders         | 6/16/1993  | 22.12          |
| Norman Powell           | 5/25/1993  | 22.18          |
| Darrun Hilliard         | 4/13/1993  | 22.30          |
| Frank Kaminsky          | 4/4/1993   | 22.32          |
| Quinn Cook              | 3/23/1993  | 22.36          |
| TaShawn Thomas          | 2/27/1993  | 22.42          |
| Olivier Hanlan          | 2/15/1993  | 22.46          |
| Chasson Randle          | 2/5/1993   | 22.48          |
| Branden Dawson          | 2/1/1993   | 22.49          |
| Alan Williams           | 1/28/1993  | 22.51          |
| Travis Trice            | 1/22/1993  | 22.52          |
| Pat Connaughton         | 1/6/1993   | 22.57          |
| Larry Nance             | 1/1/1993   | 22.58          |
| Ryan Boatright          | 12/27/1992 | 22.59          |
| Shannon Scott           | 12/21/1992 | 22.61          |
| Jonathan Holmes         | 12/9/1992  | 22.64          |
| Anthony Brown           | 10/10/1992 | 22.81          |
| Jerian Grant            | 10/9/1992  | 22.81          |
| Terran Petteway         | 10/8/1992  | 22.81          |
| Aaron White             | 9/10/1992  | 22.89          |
| Seth Tuttle             | 9/5/1992   | 22.90          |
| LeBryan Nash            | 6/30/1992  | 23.09          |
| Joseph Young            | 6/27/1992  | 23.09          |
| D.J. Newbill            | 5/22/1992  | 23.19          |
| Juwan Staten            | 5/21/1992  | 23.20          |
| Joshua Smith            | 5/14/1992  | 23.21          |
| Delon Wright            | 4/26/1992  | 23.26          |
| Dez Wells               | 4/15/1992  | 23.29          |
| T.J. McConnell          | 3/25/1992  | 23.35          |
| Julian Washburn         | 12/18/1991 | 23.62          |
| Rakeem Christmas        | 12/1/1991  | 23.67          |
| Corey Hawkins           | 8/10/1991  | 23.98          |
+-------------------------+------------+----------------+

[Crow]

Arguably the actual draft should beat the mocks and models given the resources at teams disposal for draft research (professional scouting departments, large video libraries, live watches, tips from within industry, interviews) and assumed best knowledge of team needs and what and who fits. Some teams may do it well but the overall performance of the actual draft picks / rankings suggests most aren't doing that well.

[Statman]

Arguably the actual draft should beat the mocks and models given the resources at teams disposal for draft research (professional scouting departments, large video libraries, live watches, tips from within industry, interviews) and assumed best knowledge of team needs and what and who fits. Some teams may do it well but the overall performance of the actual draft picks / rankings suggests most aren't doing that well.

I just think teams over think the subjective evaluation process. Like baseball 20 years ago ignoring quality production at lower levels for "tools" - NBA teams still seem to be willing to ignore production (quality, predictive production) for perceived upside of athleticism & length.

Funny thing is - it was the scouts that chose Doug McDermott in the lottery, while most of the models "saw" the huge risk because of his historically low defensive stat rates. If a guy isn't athletic enough & have the instincts to anticipate to muster more than 0.2 steals & 0.1 blocks a game w/ a mid major schedule (by far the worst on his own team btw) - how can we expect him to star at the next? So, maybe it's teams just fall in love with guys - and the moment some team hears another likes a guy a ton, they all assume the guy deserves the draft position.

But, Zach Lavine gets drafted high because he LOOKS so awesome running & jumping. Never mind he was invisible 85% of the time on a meh college team. Yes, he is young, one can easily IMAGINE his becoming much more than he is now - but the instances of past college players being that relatively mediocre in terms of college production for a "prospect" (even in one season) and STILL becoming a good/great player is VERY rare. By my ratings, before this last season of the last 790 players who played in college & then at least 1 minute in the NBA the following season - only two had a college HnI rating Zach Lavine low who became anything in the NBA - Ariza & Dalembert. That's some odds to defy.

I also think it has been too easy for teams to poo poo college production by saying it's too hard to evaluate because of the HUGE cariance in college playing styles (pace) & SoSs. A good draft model effectively (theoretically) deals with this. I don't think many teams have decided to believe that yet.

[Dr Positivity]

Well my system is a crazy combination of subjective (evaluating how talented someone is with a system I have developed for several years) and objective/data (to determine "how likely someone is to reach their talent" using analytics of the form in this thread, traditional production (PER adjusted by age), and draft position). It's apparently popular in the NHL scouting community to use a system like this. They give a player a grade like 9B - 9 for talent, B for how likely they are to reach their talent. Anyways my current top 30 and the score beside them:

1. Karl-Anthony Towns: 22
2. Jahlil Okafor: 22
3. D'Angelo Russell: 22
4. Frank Kaminsky: 19
5. Myles Turner: 17.1
6. Stanley Johnson: 17.1
7. Justise Winslow: 17.0
8. Mario Hezonja: 16.8
9. Emmanuel Mudiay: 16.0
10. Delon Wright: 15.4
11. George De Paula: 15.2
12. Guillermo Hernangomez: 15.2
13. Willie Cauley-Stein: 15
14. Cameron Payne: 14.7
15. Timothe Luwawu: 14.4
16. Kristaps Porzingis: 14.4
17. Arturas Gudaitis: 14.4
18. Sam Dekker: 14.4
19. Tyus Jones: 14.3
20. Kevon Looney: 13.6
21. Aleksander Vezenkov: 13.6
22. Kelly Oubre: 13.6
23. Bobby Portis: 13.6
24. Richaun Holmes: 13.3
25. Moussa Diagne: 12.8
26. Christian Wood: 12.8
27. Robert Upshaw: 12.6
28. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson: 12.6
29. Jerian Grant: 12.0
30. Mouhammadou Jaiteh: 12.0

Some Euro guys look high. Did not attempt to interpret Euro stats and instead gave them all a flat mediocre score in the "reaching talent" data part, but once compared to NCAA prospects who rank out of the top 30, that flat mediocre score starts to look good. Perhaps that's how it should be - no useful numbers and high variance in the case of guys like De Paula or Luwawu who've barely played anyone, is more desirable than having bad NCAA numbers that all but doom a player. I am surprised to have heard very little about Hernangomez and Gudaitis as they both appear to be putting up same caliber productivity as Porzingis and Hezonja against high level competition like ACB and Euroleague, Eurocup, which when dealing with young center prospects is attention grabbing. Hernangomez is slow but looks strong and has post moves, Gudaitis is springy athlete, from a glance I would rate both to have NBA bodies.

In my model that takes into account draft position/conventional scouting less than the above, Delon Wright ranks 5th behind the top 3 and Kaminsky (the rest of the top 10 is very similar as in the above). Kaminsky looks great when taking into account how he's been rated a legit top 7 guy by analytics, unlike some of the other white senior POY picks in the past

Devin Booker and Trey Lyles are two of the big fallers compared to conventional wisdom. For players where the numbers don't back up their case, would need to see more exciting talent than what they provide. Rondae and Montrezl were two players that I was subjectively high on before doing this and came out surprisingly bad, especially a mess for Montrezl, numbers just weren't there.

[Crow]

Are NBA over-discounting D Wright because of age? Who are his closest comparables or more specifically closest comparables over 21 at draft time? If he had same stats but was 21 would he be ranked in top 5 by the stat models?

[vjl110]

Crow..

Interestingly, fellow Ute Andre Miller consistently pops up as Delon Wright's best comp in each season.

[Crow]

Thanks for that info. Wright did improve on several important things from junior to senior year and Utah had a SOS of 32. So you can't say he was already maxxed out or played a weak schedule.

[Statman]

Are NBA over-discounting D Wright because of age? Who are his closest comparables or more specifically closest comparables over 21 at draft time? If he had same stats but was 21 would he be ranked in top 5 by the stat models?

He would be ranked top 5 by most stat models if he were younger. I'd love to land him if I were a team.

I'm still probably 2 days away from updating my ratings (had to add this last season's data to slightly tweak all the weights, working on exact age progressions instead of rounded, etc.). I'm very interested to see how highly Kaminsky & Wright rank as prospects - they were #1 & 2 all season in my college performance rankings this last season.

[Statman]

Crow..

Interestingly, fellow Ute Andre Miller consistently pops up as Delon Wright's best comp in each season.

Delon has 3 inches on Andre to boot.

I expect he'll be a very good NBA player when it's all said & done.

[Statman]

Thanks for that info. Wright did improve on several important things from junior to senior year and Utah had a SOS of 32. So you can't say he was already maxxed out or played a weak schedule.

Funny thing is - Wright is long & athletic with a diverse skillset & obviously developed basketball instincts. That's usually the very thing NBA teams want. Probably the only knock I'd have on him is that he isn't "alpha male" enough - he didn't completely take over games & put up big scoring totals. That, & his age. But, he's a "helping his team win even if he doesn't score" type, unlike many other prospects. He's the type of player San Antonio would jump all over if they could.

[EvanZ]

But, Zach Lavine gets drafted high because he LOOKS so awesome running & jumping. Never mind he was invisible 85% of the time on a meh college team. Yes, he is young, one can easily IMAGINE his becoming much more than he is now - but the instances of past college players being that relatively mediocre in terms of college production for a "prospect" (even in one season) and STILL becoming a good/great player is VERY rare. By my ratings, before this last season of the last 790 players who played in college & then at least 1 minute in the NBA the following season - only two had a college HnI rating Zach Lavine low who became anything in the NBA - Ariza & Dalembert. That's some odds to defy.

I watched LaVine pretty closely when MIN played GSW this year. In their first game, LaVine had 14 assists. That's tied for the most ever for a 19-year old with a guy named LeBron James.

http://bkref.com/tiny/wnL3z

From what I've seen of him, he can shoot, handle the ball, and has good court vision. And he can jump out of the building. My only concern is will he gain enough strength to defend bigger guys. But if he can do that, I'm actually really high on his future.

[Statman]

I watched LaVine pretty closely when MIN played GSW this year. In their first game, LaVine had 14 assists. That's tied for the most ever for a 19-year old with a guy named LeBron James.

http://bkref.com/tiny/wnL3z

From what I've seen of him, he can shoot, handle the ball, and has good court vision. And he can jump out of the building. My only concern is will he gain enough strength to defend bigger guys. But if he can do that, I'm actually really high on his future.

You may be right - but SO many people fall prey to spurts of "greatness" from a player, especially from an uber athletic guy on a bad team (SOMEONE has to compile stats). You saw one of his very best games as a pro, but he disappeared so often much of the time. I will say though, his future is definitely more promising to me now than it was after his one season at UCLA. He should have been GREAT in college (such a better basketball "specimen" than his opponents), he was average. Almost always (like 99% of the time) future NBA stars were at the very least very, very good in college, even if just in a one & done season as an 18 year old.

Gerald Green should have been a star based on the eye test - elite athleticism, length, could shoot from range, >80% ft shooter, solid passer from the wing. He had just turned 21 after his 2nd season, hadn't played a season & a half of games, already had 17 games of 19 or more points. That's 17 more NBA games of 19 or more points than Michael Jordan had at the same age.

Good draft models are supposed to reign us in when our eyes get too infatuated with someone based on small sample sizes (handful of games) & looks. They also are supposed to let us know when a guy is just too darn productive to ignore despite what the scouts might say (too short, not a great body, etc.).

By my HnI NBA rating - since '80 there isn't a player who played any kind of minutes in their 19 year old (basketball-reference ages) season who had a lower rating than Lavine and still became an NBA star. Kwame Brown had an 83 HnI (100 NBA average) for comparison, Lavine 84. Tony Parker was a 95 at 19, he's probably the lowest rated true future star.

For reference - here's my ranking of every 19 year old season by my WAR since '80:

Code: Select all

+-----+--------------------------+------+-----+------+------+------+-------+-------+------+-----+-----+-----+-----+------+-------+------+--------+-----+
| Rnk |          Player          | Year | Tm  |  MP  | M/g  | P/g  | Orb/g | Drb/g | R/g  | A/g | S/g | B/g | T/g | PF/g |  TS%  | WAR  | WAR/48 | HnI |
+-----+--------------------------+------+-----+------+------+------+-------+-------+------+-----+-----+-----+-----+------+-------+------+--------+-----+
|   1 | LeBron James             | 2004 | CLE | 3122 | 39.5 | 20.9 | 1.3   | 4.2   | 5.5  | 5.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 3.5 | 1.9  | 0.480 | 9.02 | 11.47  | 111 |
|   2 | Kobe Bryant              | 1998 | LAL | 2056 | 26.0 | 15.4 | 1.0   | 2.1   | 3.1  | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 2.3  | 0.534 | 6.26 | 12.08  | 108 |
|   3 | Carmelo Anthony          | 2004 | DEN | 2995 | 36.5 | 21.0 | 2.2   | 3.8   | 6.1  | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 3.0 | 2.7  | 0.499 | 7.76 | 10.23  | 106 |
|   4 | Kyrie Irving             | 2012 | CLE | 1558 | 30.5 | 18.5 | 0.9   | 2.9   | 3.7  | 5.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 3.1 | 2.2  | 0.559 | 7.63 | 15.64  | 123 |
|   5 | Tracy McGrady            | 1999 | TOR | 1106 | 22.6 | 9.3  | 2.4   | 3.2   | 5.7  | 2.3 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.9  | 0.494 | 5.65 | 12.34  | 111 |
|   6 | Dwight Howard            | 2005 | ORL | 2670 | 32.6 | 12.0 | 3.5   | 6.5   | 10.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.8  | 0.555 | 6.84 | 10.09  | 107 |
|   7 | Stephon Marbury          | 1997 | MIN | 2324 | 34.7 | 15.8 | 0.8   | 1.9   | 2.7  | 7.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 3.1 | 2.4  | 0.508 | 5.69 | 9.69   | 103 |
|   8 | Anthony Davis            | 2013 | NOH | 1846 | 28.8 | 13.5 | 2.6   | 5.6   | 8.2  | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 2.5  | 0.550 | 5.41 | 11.59  | 120 |
|   9 | Chris Bosh               | 2004 | TOR | 2510 | 33.5 | 11.5 | 2.5   | 4.9   | 7.4  | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 2.9  | 0.503 | 4.22 | 6.72   | 100 |
|  10 | Luol Deng                | 2005 | CHI | 1663 | 27.3 | 11.7 | 1.5   | 3.8   | 5.3  | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 1.9 | 1.6  | 0.490 | 4.03 | 9.60   | 102 |
|  11 | Kevin Garnett            | 1996 | MIN | 2293 | 28.7 | 10.4 | 2.2   | 4.1   | 6.3  | 1.8 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 2.4  | 0.516 | 3.96 | 6.83   | 101 |
|  12 | Kevin Durant             | 2008 | SEA | 2768 | 34.6 | 20.3 | 0.9   | 3.5   | 4.4  | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 2.9 | 1.5  | 0.511 | 3.91 | 5.60   |  98 |
|  13 | Cliff Robinson           | 1980 | NJN | 1661 | 23.7 | 13.6 | 2.5   | 4.7   | 7.2  | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 2.5  | 0.498 | 3.86 | 9.19   | 106 |
|  14 | Andre Drummond           | 2013 | DET | 1243 | 20.7 | 7.9  | 2.8   | 4.8   | 7.6  | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 2.4  | 0.565 | 3.82 | 12.17  | 115 |
|  15 | Tony Parker              | 2002 | SAS | 2267 | 29.4 | 9.2  | 0.4   | 2.1   | 2.6  | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 2.0 | 2.2  | 0.490 | 3.67 | 6.43   |  95 |
|  16 | Andrew Bynum             | 2007 | LAL | 1793 | 21.9 | 7.8  | 1.7   | 4.2   | 5.9  | 1.1 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 3.0  | 0.579 | 3.42 | 7.64   |  98 |
|  17 | Thaddeus Young           | 2008 | PHI | 1554 | 21.0 | 8.2  | 1.6   | 2.6   | 4.2  | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 1.7  | 0.563 | 3.36 | 8.53   | 102 |
|  18 | Darius Miles             | 2001 | LAC | 2133 | 26.3 | 9.4  | 1.6   | 4.3   | 5.9  | 1.2 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 2.4  | 0.508 | 3.26 | 6.12   |  97 |
|  19 | Bradley Beal             | 2013 | WAS | 1745 | 31.2 | 13.9 | 0.8   | 3.0   | 3.8  | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 2.0  | 0.509 | 2.47 | 5.62   |  98 |
|  20 | Andris Biedrins          | 2006 | GSW | 1000 | 14.7 | 3.8  | 1.8   | 2.3   | 4.2  | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 2.8  | 0.584 | 1.51 | 5.98   |  97 |
|  21 | Eddie Griffin            | 2002 | HOU | 1896 | 26.0 | 8.8  | 1.6   | 4.1   | 5.7  | 0.7 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 1.6  | 0.453 | 2.15 | 4.52   |  93 |
|  22 | Josh Smith               | 2005 | ATL | 2050 | 27.7 | 9.7  | 2.0   | 4.2   | 6.2  | 1.7 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 2.1  | 0.496 | 2.06 | 4.00   |  97 |
|  23 | Andrew Wiggins           | 2015 | MIN | 2969 | 36.2 | 16.9 | 1.6   | 2.9   | 4.6  | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 2.2 | 2.3  | 0.506 | 2.05 | 2.74   |  91 |
|  24 | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist   | 2013 | CHA | 2025 | 26.0 | 9.0  | 1.7   | 4.2   | 5.8  | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 2.1  | 0.498 | 1.97 | 3.85   |  91 |
|  25 | Anthony Randolph         | 2009 | GSW | 1129 | 17.9 | 7.9  | 2.0   | 3.7   | 5.8  | 0.8 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 2.2  | 0.498 | 1.92 | 6.75   | 100 |
|  26 | Derrick Favors           | 2011 | UTA | 1535 | 19.7 | 6.8  | 2.2   | 3.1   | 5.3  | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 3.2  | 0.530 | 1.82 | 4.73   |  94 |
|  27 | Jermaine O'Neal          | 1998 | POR |  808 | 13.5 | 4.5  | 1.3   | 2.0   | 3.4  | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.7  | 0.488 | 1.10 | 5.38   |  93 |
|  28 | Enes Kanter              | 2012 | UTA |  874 | 13.2 | 4.6  | 1.6   | 2.6   | 4.2  | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.3  | 0.527 | 1.57 | 5.81   |  94 |
|  29 | Jrue Holiday             | 2010 | PHI | 1767 | 24.2 | 8.0  | 0.8   | 1.8   | 2.6  | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 2.1 | 2.1  | 0.521 | 1.48 | 3.31   |  90 |
|  30 | Jabari Parker            | 2015 | MIL |  738 | 29.5 | 12.3 | 2.0   | 3.5   | 5.5  | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 1.7  | 0.520 | 1.39 | 7.49   | 100 |
|  31 | Trevor Ariza             | 2005 | NYK | 1382 | 17.3 | 5.9  | 1.1   | 1.9   | 3.0  | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 1.9  | 0.492 | 1.23 | 3.55   |  90 |
|  32 | Maurice Harkless         | 2013 | ORL | 1974 | 26.0 | 8.2  | 1.6   | 2.8   | 4.4  | 0.7 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.9  | 0.498 | 1.21 | 2.42   |  89 |
|  33 | Marvin Williams          | 2006 | ATL | 1952 | 24.7 | 8.5  | 1.5   | 3.3   | 4.8  | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 2.9  | 0.511 | 1.19 | 2.43   |  88 |
|  34 | Eddy Curry               | 2002 | CHI | 1150 | 16.0 | 6.7  | 1.5   | 2.2   | 3.8  | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 2.4  | 0.528 | 1.17 | 4.05   |  92 |
|  35 | Kosta Koufos             | 2009 | UTA |  565 | 11.8 | 4.7  | 1.0   | 1.8   | 2.9  | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 1.5  | 0.532 | 1.17 | 8.20   | 100 |
|  36 | Tyson Chandler           | 2002 | CHI | 1389 | 19.6 | 6.1  | 1.6   | 3.2   | 4.8  | 0.8 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 2.5  | 0.525 | 1.10 | 3.13   |  89 |
|  37 | Tobias Harris            | 2012 | MIL |  479 | 11.4 | 5.0  | 0.7   | 1.7   | 2.4  | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 1.1  | 0.531 | 0.73 | 4.86   |  93 |
|  38 | J.R. Smith               | 2005 | NOH | 1859 | 24.5 | 10.3 | 0.5   | 1.5   | 2.0  | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 1.8  | 0.472 | 0.70 | 1.49   |  86 |
|  39 | Ricky Davis              | 1999 | CHH |  557 | 12.1 | 4.5  | 0.9   | 1.0   | 1.8  | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 1.0  | 0.455 | 0.66 | 2.89   |  87 |
|  40 | Amir Johnson             | 2007 | DET |  124 | 15.5 | 5.9  | 1.9   | 2.8   | 4.6  | 0.4 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 2.4  | 0.588 | 0.45 | 14.48  | 114 |
|  41 | Shaun Livingston         | 2005 | LAC |  814 | 27.1 | 7.4  | 0.7   | 2.2   | 3.0  | 5.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 2.5 | 2.7  | 0.454 | 0.54 | 2.68   |  87 |
|  42 | Giannis Antetokounmpo    | 2014 | MIL | 1897 | 24.6 | 6.8  | 1.0   | 3.4   | 4.4  | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 2.2  | 0.506 | 0.52 | 1.10   |  85 |
|  43 | Ersan Ilyasova           | 2007 | MIL |  973 | 14.7 | 6.1  | 0.9   | 2.0   | 2.9  | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 2.2  | 0.493 | 0.50 | 2.04   |  86 |
|  44 | Zach LaVine              | 2015 | MIN | 1902 | 24.7 | 10.1 | 0.4   | 2.4   | 2.8  | 3.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 2.5 | 2.1  | 0.508 | 0.50 | 1.03   |  84 |
|  45 | Al Harrington            | 2000 | IND |  854 | 17.1 | 6.6  | 0.9   | 2.2   | 3.2  | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 2.6  | 0.513 | 0.44 | 2.05   |  85 |
|  46 | Spencer Hawes            | 2008 | SAC |  931 | 13.1 | 4.7  | 1.0   | 2.3   | 3.2  | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.8  | 0.481 | 0.39 | 1.66   |  84 |
|  47 | Noah Vonleh              | 2015 | CHO |  259 | 10.4 | 3.3  | 1.1   | 2.3   | 3.4  | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.8  | 0.466 | 0.38 | 5.78   |  95 |
|  48 | Dajuan Wagner            | 2003 | CLE | 1385 | 29.5 | 13.4 | 0.4   | 1.3   | 1.7  | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 2.3  | 0.459 | 0.36 | 1.03   |  84 |
|  49 | Gerald Wallace           | 2002 | SAC |  430 | 8.0  | 3.2  | 0.9   | 0.7   | 1.6  | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.9  | 0.437 | 0.32 | 2.91   |  87 |
|  50 | Martell Webster          | 2006 | POR | 1070 | 17.5 | 6.6  | 0.5   | 1.7   | 2.1  | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 1.5  | 0.527 | 0.30 | 1.10   |  83 |
|  51 | C.J. Miles               | 2007 | UTA |  373 | 10.1 | 2.7  | 0.3   | 0.6   | 0.9  | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 1.6  | 0.396 | 0.00 | 0.00   |  42 |
|  52 | Aaron Gordon             | 2015 | ORL |  797 | 17.0 | 5.2  | 1.0   | 2.6   | 3.6  | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.8  | 0.509 | 0.27 | 1.31   |  84 |
|  53 | Bismack Biyombo          | 2012 | CHA | 1455 | 23.1 | 5.2  | 1.8   | 4.0   | 5.8  | 0.4 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 2.3  | 0.468 | 0.26 | 0.57   |  83 |
|  54 | Kwame Brown              | 2002 | WAS |  817 | 14.3 | 4.5  | 1.1   | 2.4   | 3.5  | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.8  | 0.441 | 0.21 | 1.04   |  83 |
|  55 | Kendrick Perkins         | 2004 | BOS |   35 | 3.5  | 2.2  | 0.5   | 0.9   | 1.4  | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6  | 0.564 | 0.07 | 8.05   | 101 |
|  56 | Travis Outlaw            | 2004 | POR |   19 | 2.4  | 1.0  | 0.3   | 0.3   | 0.5  | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1  | 0.444 | 0.04 | 7.37   |  98 |
|  57 | Maciej Lampe             | 2005 | NOH |  380 | 10.3 | 3.1  | 0.6   | 1.8   | 2.4  | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 1.4  | 0.402 | 0.00 | 0.00   |  63 |
|  58 | Martynas Andriuskevicius | 2006 | CLE |    9 | 1.5  | 0.0  | 0.2   | 0.5   | 0.7  | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2  | 0.000 | 0.02 | 7.41   |  98 |
|  59 | Jackie Butler            | 2005 | NYK |    5 | 1.7  | 3.3  | 0.0   | 0.0   | 0.0  | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0  | 1.000 | 0.01 | 10.76  | 111 |
|  60 | Dante Exum               | 2015 | UTA | 1817 | 22.2 | 4.8  | 0.3   | 1.3   | 1.6  | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 1.8  | 0.455 | 0.00 | 0.00   |  71 |
|  61 | Sebastian Telfair        | 2005 | POR | 1330 | 19.6 | 6.8  | 0.1   | 1.4   | 1.5  | 3.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 1.8  | 0.463 | 0.00 | 0.00   |  78 |
|  62 | Nikoloz Tskitishvili     | 2003 | DEN | 1320 | 16.3 | 3.9  | 0.8   | 1.4   | 2.2  | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.7  | 0.370 | 0.00 | 0.00   |  61 |
|  63 | Kris Humphries           | 2005 | UTA |  873 | 13.0 | 4.1  | 1.1   | 1.9   | 2.9  | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.4  | 0.412 | 0.00 | 0.00   |  75 |
|  64 | Zaza Pachulia            | 2004 | ORL |  664 | 11.3 | 3.3  | 1.2   | 1.8   | 2.9  | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 1.5  | 0.441 | 0.00 | 0.00   |  75 |
|  65 | Archie Goodwin           | 2014 | PHO |  533 | 10.3 | 3.7  | 0.5   | 1.2   | 1.7  | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.9  | 0.499 | 0.00 | 0.00   |  73 |
|  66 | Xavier Henry             | 2011 | MEM |  527 | 13.9 | 4.3  | 0.2   | 0.7   | 1.0  | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 1.3  | 0.444 | 0.00 | 0.00   |  61 |
|  67 | James Young              | 2015 | BOS |  332 | 10.7 | 3.4  | 0.3   | 1.1   | 1.4  | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.7  | 0.451 | 0.00 | 0.00   |  69 |
|  68 | Marquis Teague           | 2013 | CHI |  392 | 8.2  | 2.1  | 0.1   | 0.9   | 0.9  | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.0  | 0.409 | 0.00 | 0.00   |  58 |
|  69 | Darko Milicic            | 2005 | DET |  254 | 6.9  | 1.8  | 0.1   | 1.1   | 1.2  | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.8  | 0.381 | 0.00 | 0.00   |  47 |
|  70 | Tony Wroten              | 2013 | MEM |  272 | 7.8  | 2.6  | 0.4   | 0.4   | 0.8  | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 1.0  | 0.453 | 0.00 | 0.00   |  72 |
|  71 | Olumide Oyedeji          | 2001 | SEA |  221 | 7.4  | 1.5  | 0.8   | 1.4   | 2.2  | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.3  | 0.523 | 0.00 | 0.00   |  77 |
|  72 | Andray Blatche           | 2006 | WAS |  175 | 6.0  | 2.2  | 0.4   | 0.9   | 1.3  | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 1.2  | 0.445 | 0.00 | 0.00   |  74 |
|  73 | DeShawn Stevenson        | 2001 | UTA |  293 | 7.3  | 2.2  | 0.2   | 0.5   | 0.7  | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 0.7  | 0.405 | 0.00 | 0.00   |  42 |
|  74 | Rashard Lewis            | 1999 | SEA |  145 | 7.3  | 2.4  | 0.7   | 0.6   | 1.3  | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 1.0  | 0.398 | 0.00 | 0.00   |  40 |
|  75 | Louis Williams           | 2006 | PHI |  145 | 4.8  | 1.9  | 0.1   | 0.5   | 0.6  | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.4  | 0.479 | 0.00 | 0.00   |  60 |
|  76 | Yaroslav Korolev         | 2007 | LAC |   41 | 4.1  | 1.2  | 0.1   | 0.2   | 0.3  | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0  | 0.316 | 0.00 | 0.00   |  54 |
|  77 | Jonathan Bender          | 2000 | IND |  130 | 5.4  | 2.7  | 0.2   | 0.7   | 0.9  | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.8  | 0.390 | 0.00 | 0.00   |  54 |
|  78 | Robert Swift             | 2005 | SEA |   72 | 4.5  | 0.9  | 0.1   | 0.3   | 0.3  | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 1.0  | 0.484 | 0.00 | 0.00   |  46 |
|  79 | Ha Seung-Jin             | 2005 | POR |  104 | 5.5  | 1.4  | 0.3   | 0.6   | 0.9  | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 1.1  | 0.456 | 0.00 | 0.00   |  31 |
|  80 | Bruno Sundov             | 2000 | DAL |   61 | 4.4  | 1.9  | 0.4   | 0.5   | 0.9  | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 1.1  | 0.406 | 0.00 | 0.00   |  57 |
|  81 | Ndudi Ebi                | 2004 | MIN |   32 | 1.9  | 0.8  | 0.1   | 0.1   | 0.2  | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4  | 0.406 | 0.00 | 0.00   |  64 |
|  82 | Dorell Wright            | 2005 | MIA |   27 | 9.0  | 2.3  | 0.0   | 0.3   | 0.3  | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.7  | 0.304 | 0.00 | 0.00   |  50 |
|  83 | Peter John Ramos         | 2005 | WAS |   20 | 3.3  | 1.8  | 0.2   | 0.5   | 0.7  | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.7  | 0.500 | 0.00 | 0.00   |  54 |
|  84 | Jamal Sampson            | 2003 | MIL |    8 | 1.6  | 0.0  | 0.2   | 0.2   | 0.4  | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0  | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0.00   |  57 |
|  85 | Bruno Caboclo            | 2015 | TOR |   23 | 2.9  | 1.3  | 0.1   | 0.1   | 0.3  | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.4  | 0.417 | 0.00 | 0.00   |  -3 |
+-----+--------------------------+------+-----+------+------+------+-------+-------+------+-----+-----+-----+-----+------+-------+------+--------+-----+

44 out of 85 is not a bad showing for Lavine imo. He's in that range where there are some guys who became solid pros - 26 of the guys above didn't even play above replacement player in my ratings, he at least did that (about 5% "better" than replacement). But, he was nowhere near any guy who became a future star, and that's despite getting very good playing time on a bad team that wanted him (& Wiggins) to star. The future stars in this list - well, they stand out immediately among their age peers.

I think he'll end up a decent NBA role type player - maybe a notch above my Gerald Green example. That's more than my draft model expected at least.

[Crow]

RPM estimated LaVine as league's worst PG http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_ ... position/1 and 4th worst overall. A lot of the negative on the defensive side, not fully picked up by boxscore metrics.