Improved Players 2017-18

[Mike G]

Improvement over last season, based on:
(e484'18 - e484'17)*Min/484
This yields an estimate of wins a player has produced, in addition to what he'd have done at last year's rates.
Sabonis is on pace to earn 8.8 eWins this year; last year he had 1.0

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eW+    per36 rates   tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  '17: Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  e484
.72   D Sabonis     Ind  .633   18.4  15.2   4.2   1.91  OKC .466    9.8   6.7   1.9   .31
.56   Evan Fournier Orl  .680   25.1   5.1   4.4   1.84      .546   18.3   3.5   3.0   .83
.48   Aaron Gordon  Orl  .663   24.9  10.1   3.0   2.14      .523   15.0   6.5   2.2   .89
.47  Victor Oladipo Ind  .615   28.6   4.9   4.1   1.88  OKC .529   17.2   4.9   3.0   .97
.45   Steven Adams  OkC  .687   20.7  11.0   2.0   1.99      .577   14.2   9.7   1.4   .97

.45   Clint Capela  Hou  .714   21.9  17.7   2.0   2.70      .628   18.9  12.7   1.8  1.71
.39   Jaylen Brown  Bos  .558   20.0   6.7   1.1   1.18      .531   12.2   5.9   1.8   .45
.38   Eric Gordon   Hou  .567   26.8   2.5   3.9   1.45      .552   16.7   3.1   3.2   .77
.36 Darren Collison Ind  .637   17.4   3.7   8.5   1.62  Sac .563   15.8   2.9   5.4   .93
.35   Giannis A     Mil  .648   31.7  11.6   5.0   2.93      .586   24.1   9.7   5.4  2.35

eW+    per36 rates   tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  '17: Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  e484
.35   Otto Porter   Was  .655   20.0   8.3   2.4   1.93      .623   15.0   7.6   1.7  1.08
.35   K Porzingis   NYK  .549   29.7   8.9   1.2   2.03      .538   19.2   8.0   1.5  1.31
.34   S Dinwiddie   Brk  .582   16.0   3.9   8.1   1.47      .566   10.6   4.2   4.7   .56
.34   D.J. Augustin Orl  .611   13.7   3.2   9.0   1.39      .515   13.1   2.7   4.3   .47
.32   Terry Rozier  Bos  .479   14.2   7.2   4.0   1.38      .462    9.4   6.2   3.7   .58

With e484, or eWins per 484 minutes, average = 1.00
The East has 12 of the top 15 improvers, 16 of the top 20 in fact.

Those on the bottom of the pile are still getting minutes despite big dropoffs in production.
Durant is not shooting worse, just a lot less. Less passing and rebounding, more turnovers.

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eW+     per36 rates   tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  e484  '17: Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
-.55   Kevin Durant  GSW  .646   23.0   7.9   5.0  1.82      .638   28.2   9.2   5.9   2.74
-.52   George Hill   Sac  .536   13.1   3.8   2.9   .32  Uta .589   22.8   4.2   5.1   1.62
-.49   Jimmy Butler  Min  .523   15.7   5.5   3.7   .99  Chi .571   24.6   6.1   5.0   2.05
-.44   James Harden  Hou  .552   27.7   5.0  10.2  2.26      .597   28.6   8.2  11.9   2.90
-.36   Patty Mills   SAS  .387    8.6   1.7   4.2  -.11      .573   16.2   2.9   5.8   1.02

-.36   Dwyane Wade   Cle  .439   10.7   3.1   6.0   .51  Chi .500   22.1   5.5   4.7   1.64
-.35   Jae Crowder   Cle  .480    9.0   4.9   1.2   .17  Bos .603   15.3   6.8   2.6    .99
-.34   Dario Saric   Phl  .413    8.8   6.6   2.0   .12      .501   15.5   8.8   2.9    .99
-.32   Jrue Holiday  NOP  .524   13.4   4.8   5.9   .84      .526   16.7   4.3   8.0   1.37
-.31   R Westbrook   OkC  .531   23.7  11.4  14.3  2.90      .542   34.1  11.5  10.4   3.55

eW+     per36 rates   tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  e484  '17: Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
-.29   DeMar DeRozan Tor  .545   24.6   3.7   4.9  1.65      .541   30.4   5.6   4.3   2.26
-.29 Wilson Chandler Den  .496    9.0   4.7   3.9   .42      .539   16.0   7.6   2.4   1.01
-.29   Dirk Nowitzki Dal  .502   14.9   8.7   2.6  1.01      .524   19.9   9.9   2.1   1.62
-.28   Kyle Lowry    Tor  .489   14.0   6.6   8.4  1.43      .611   25.0   4.9   6.9   2.03
-.27   Jeff Teague   Min  .538   13.9   3.8   8.2  1.05  Ind .562   17.7   4.8   8.5   1.55

Westbrook shots and minutes are both down. He's one rebound short of 3-D again this year.
These numbers do not include last night's games.

[Mike G]

At 13% of the season. Porzingis zips into contention.

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eW+    per36 rates   tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484       Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  e484
.78   D Sabonis     Ind  .643   18.4  14.2   4.0   1.70  OkC .466    9.8   6.7   1.9   .31
.60   K Porzingis   NYK  .596   32.5   8.8   1.1   2.20      .538   19.2   8.0   1.5  1.31
.56   Aaron Gordon  Orl  .664   22.4   9.6   2.5   1.84      .523   15.0   6.5   2.2   .89
.52   Evan Fournier Orl  .630   22.3   4.8   4.1   1.50      .546   18.3   3.5   3.0   .83
.52   Jaylen Brown  Bos  .533   18.0   7.7   1.3   1.11      .531   12.2   5.9   1.8   .45

.48  Brandon Ingram LAL  .523   16.7   5.3   2.6    .90      .467   10.0   5.0   2.4   .26
.44   Clint Capela  Hou  .697   20.6  16.9   2.1   2.52      .628   18.9  12.7   1.8  1.71
.44   Eric Gordon   Hou  .580   25.9   3.0   4.1   1.41      .552   16.7   3.1   3.2   .77
.41   Steven Adams  OkC  .696   17.7  10.0   1.7   1.62      .577   14.2   9.7   1.4   .97
.37 Jordan Clarkson LAL  .585   25.3   4.0   4.6   1.46      .522   16.1   3.6   2.9   .68

eW+    per36 rates   tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484       Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  e484
.37   S Dinwiddie   Brk  .537   13.9   4.2   7.9   1.30      .566   10.6   4.2   4.7   .56
.37   Otto Porter   Was  .677   19.0   7.5   2.0   1.67      .623   15.0   7.6   1.7  1.08
.36   Tyreke Evans  Mem  .598   24.7   6.4   3.9   1.82  Sac .494   16.8   6.1   5.2  1.23
.36  Victor Oladipo Ind  .570   24.6   4.8   3.8   1.41  OkC .529   17.2   4.9   3.0   .97
.36   Terry Rozier  Bos  .469   13.3   7.2   3.6   1.18      .462    9.4   6.2   3.7   .58

.36  Reggie Jackson Det  .544   21.4   4.9   8.1   1.78      .505   19.9   3.0   6.4  1.23
.36   Jarrett Jack  NYK  .411    6.4   5.2   7.5    .54  NOP .750    7.1    .0   4.9  -.21
.35   Ed Davis      Por  .507   11.3  15.2   1.1   1.29      .548    8.5  11.0   1.2   .49
.34   Isaiah Taylor Atl  .549   12.6   3.0   4.6    .57  Hou .188    1.0   1.9   2.2  -.59
.34   DJ Augustin   Orl  .611   13.5   3.2   8.5   1.38      .515   13.1   2.7   4.3   .47

J Jack was virtually out of the league last year, getting 33 minutes for the Pelicans. Now at 34 yrs, he's the starting PG for a playoff-looking team.
East has 13 of the top 20 improvers, and 4 of those they swiped from the West.

Over the last 5 games, Westbrook has hit .419 inside the arc and .276 from beyond.

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eW+     per36 rates   tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  e484       Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
-.82   R Westbrook   OkC  .498   22.7  10.3  12.2  2.40      .542   34.1  11.5  10.4   3.55
-.77   Jimmy Butler  Min  .520   13.9   5.5   4.1   .89  Chi .571   24.6   6.1   5.0   2.05
-.60   George Hill   Sac  .511   11.6   4.3   3.1   .27  Uta .589   22.8   4.2   5.1   1.62
-.60   Kevin Durant  GSW  .652   24.5   8.1   5.8  1.99      .638   28.2   9.2   5.9   2.74
-.51   Jrue Holiday  NOP  .475   11.9   4.9   6.1   .76      .526   16.7   4.3   8.0   1.37

-.48   DeMar DeRozan Tor  .560   26.2   4.2   4.2  1.58      .541   30.4   5.6   4.3   2.26
-.45   Dirk Nowitzki Dal  .488   14.1   8.5   2.1   .87      .524   19.9   9.9   2.1   1.62
-.45 Wilson Chandler Den  .497    9.2   5.0   2.9   .35      .539   16.0   7.6   2.4   1.01
-.44   Jae Crowder   Cle  .509    9.6   5.0   1.1   .26  Bos .603   15.3   6.8   2.6    .99
-.43   Kyle Lowry    Tor  .506   14.5   6.5   8.3  1.35      .611   25.0   4.9   6.9   2.03

If Holiday returns to form, his team has 3 above-avg players.

[Mike G]

The 9 most improved according to eWins, in other summary rates, last year and this year:

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'17-'18    PER   PER   WS/48  WS/48   BPM   BPM
Sabonis    6.9   21.2   .022  .182   -4.9   2.7
Porzingis 17.5   29.1   .100  .211     .2   1.4
A Gordon  14.5   23.4   .076  .233    -.7   5.2
Fournier  14.0   20.5   .059  .180   -1.3   4.4
J Brown   10.3   13.5   .053  .133   -4.0   -.9

Ingram     8.6   13.1  -.007  .072   -4.0  -1.1
Capela    21.5   28.6   .185  .305    1.0   6.1
E Gordon  13.2   18.8   .079  .141   -1.4   -.3
S Adams   16.5   22.8   .129  .251     .5   6.3

It also matters how many minutes they've played. Here are the improvements -- yr2 - yr1 -- in several stats:

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improved   tm   Min   TS%  e484   PER  WS/48  BPM
Sabonis   Ind   269  .188  1.40  14.3  .160   7.6
Porzingis NYK   330  .061   .88  11.6  .111   1.2
A Gordon  Orl   286  .143   .96   8.9  .157   5.9
Fournier  Orl   372  .081   .67   6.5  .121   5.7
J Brown   Bos   380  .004   .66   3.2  .080   3.1

Ingram    LAL   365  .059   .64   4.5  .079   2.9
Capela    Hou   266  .068   .81   7.1  .120   5.1
E Gordon  Hou   330  .028   .64   5.6  .062   1.1
S Adams   OkC   308  .118   .65   6.3  .122   5.8

Sabonis has the largest improvement in each column, most of them by a large margin.

[rlee]

Three takes on Capela's improvement in today's BI:

Basketball Intelligence: Today's Best NBA Reporting And Analysis: http://basketballintelligence.net/2017/ ... is-111417/

[Mike G]

Most improved thru 23.3% of the season:

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eW+    per36 rates   tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484       Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  e484
1.16  D Sabonis     Ind  .599   18.0  12.6   3.2   1.53  OkC .466    9.8   6.7   1.9   .31
1.05  Jaylen Brown  Bos  .553   19.3   7.2   1.5   1.24      .531   12.2   5.9   1.8   .45
.91  Victor Oladipo Ind  .563   24.8   5.7   4.1   1.67  OkC .529   17.2   4.9   3.0   .97
.82   K Porzingis   NYK  .567   28.9   8.4   1.2   2.02      .538   19.2   8.0   1.5  1.31
.80   S Dinwiddie   Brk  .539   15.6   4.0   8.5   1.48      .566   10.6   4.2   4.7   .56

.76  Brandon Ingram LAL  .500   15.1   5.5   3.1    .84      .467   10.0   5.0   2.4   .26
.70   Aaron Gordon  Orl  .610   18.9   9.1   2.3   1.47      .523   15.0   6.5   2.2   .89
.69   Kyle Anderson SAS  .562   12.8   8.4   4.3   1.28      .518    8.5   7.3   3.3   .64
.66   Clint Capela  Hou  .663   19.3  17.2   2.3   2.36      .628   18.9  12.7   1.8  1.71
.64   T.J. Warren   Phx  .531   20.8   6.8   1.5   1.37      .534   15.5   6.1   1.3   .86

eW+    per36 rates   tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484       Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  e484
.62   L Aldridge    SAS  .553   25.1   9.4   2.7   2.03      .525   20.0   8.6   2.4  1.56
.62   Kelly Oubre   Was  .554   13.9   7.1   1.0    .78      .510    9.5   5.8   1.0   .22
.58   Kyrie Irving  Bos  .579   30.1   3.8   6.8   2.42  Cle .573   26.5   3.4   6.5  1.98
.57   Terry Rozier  Bos  .501   14.5   6.8   3.4   1.13      .462    9.4   6.2   3.7   .58
.57   Otto Porter   Was  .640   18.5   8.2   1.8   1.54      .623   15.0   7.6   1.7  1.08

.53 Jordan Clarkson LAL  .559   23.2   3.6   3.9   1.30      .522   16.1   3.6   2.9   .68
.52   Jerami Grant  OkC  .568   13.9   6.3   1.5    .79      .544    9.3   4.7   1.0   .20
.51   D Valentine   Chi  .503   12.2   6.0   3.1    .73      .490    9.4   5.2   2.1   .20
.48   Omri Casspi   GSW  .653   14.6  10.1   3.0   1.35  Min .518    9.1   6.3   1.9   .29
.48   Pascal Siakam Tor  .568   13.1   7.8   3.1   1.11      .518    9.9   8.3    .8   .50

Evan Fournier (Orl) was #4 at last report, and in 17 days since, he's dropped out of the top 30.
His last year numbers, this year up to Nov. 9, and since then:

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Gms    mpg   TS%   TRb%   Ast%   Stl%  ORtg  DRtg  GmSc
2017   32.9  .555   5.1   14.8   1.5   106   114   10.8
1-11   33.8  .636   7.4   17.2   2.2   116   106   15.7
12-20  29.2  .547   4.2   12.5   1.1   105   120    9.3

Every stat has regressed to last year's level and beyond. Magics were 7-4, 1-8 since.

Kyle Anderson (SAS) is #8 now, after being nowhere in sight 17 days ago. He's stepped up before in Kawhi's absence.

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Gms     TS%   Ast%   Stl%  Usg%  ORtg  DRtg  GmSc
17RS   .525   12.2   2.5   12.1   107   100   3.8
17PO   .603   20.7   2.4   16.7   125   113   5.9

1-11   .523   12.8   1.6   13.8   113   103   8.3
12-19  .628   23.1   2.2   15.8   124   100  12.2

And Jaylen Brown (Bos), also stepping up for an injured star.

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Gms    TS%   Ast%  Stl%   TO%   Usg%   ORt  DRt  GmSc
1617  .539   7.2   1.3   12.5   18.1   100  110   4.3
17PO  .539   9.9   1.4   14.1   19.4    97  119   3.2

1-13  .523   4.5   1.4   10.0   21.3    97   98   9.2
14-20 .631   8.0   2.6    9.6   22.1   115  101  13.6

Not much to suggest he was gonna bust out; but he has.

[Mike G]

In the West, 100 of 184 returning players have diminished from last season, for a total of -5.6 eWins added.
The East sees 90 of 182 with improved rates, totaling +10.1 eWins.

22 players who moved from East to West net -1.8 "improvement eWins".
And 27 players going W to E have netted +5.3. This is more than half of the East's total improvements.
The seriously improved seriously outnumber the dis-improved in this latter group:

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eW+   per36      tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  '17:  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  e484
1.16  Sabonis   Ind  .599   18.0  12.6   3.2   1.53  OkC  .466    9.8   6.7   1.9   .31
.91   Oladipo   Ind  .563   24.8   5.7   4.1   1.67  OkC  .529   17.2   4.9   3.0   .97
.80   Jack      NYK  .468    7.5   4.7   8.2    .63  NOP  .750    7.1    .0   4.9  -.21
.47   I Taylor  Atl  .556   12.2   2.4   4.6    .49  Hou  .188    1.0   1.9   2.2  -.59
.41  D Collison Ind  .577   14.5   3.4   7.7   1.24  Sac  .563   15.8   2.9   5.4   .93

.35  D' Russell Brk  .531   25.1   5.8   7.6   1.71  LAL  .512   18.4   4.6   5.6  1.20
.33   Dunn      Chi  .457   13.3   6.2   4.5    .69  Min  .428    6.4   4.6   4.7   .23
.32   Crabbe    Brk  .556   14.4   5.0   1.9    .68  Por  .596   12.8   3.5   1.4   .36
.28   J Simmons Orl  .567   18.1   4.0   2.5    .74  SAS  .496   11.9   4.1   3.3   .47
.24   Nwaba     Chi  .585   11.1   9.0   1.4    .95  LAL  .597    9.9   5.4   1.1   .27

eW+   per36      tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  '17:  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  e484
.23   Galloway  Det  .615   15.9   4.0   1.8    .82  Sac  .507   12.1   3.5   2.0   .36
.23   Dedmon    Atl  .654   16.7  12.0   2.0   1.38  SAS  .633   11.6  14.0   1.3  1.15
.23   Tolliver  Det  .590   13.3   5.3   2.2    .77  Sac  .588   10.5   6.0   1.7   .37
.14   Kanter    NYK  .660   19.9  15.2   1.9   1.92  OkC  .587   23.7  10.9   1.5  1.76
...
-.13  Afflalo   Orl  .429    4.8   4.6   1.7   -.21   Sac .552   11.2   3.1   1.7   .17
-.29  Bledsoe   Mil  .464   16.4   5.3   5.7   1.16   Phx .550   22.7   5.4   6.4  1.71

Jarrett Jack inflates the total somewhat, relative to his 33 minutes last year.

[Crow]

RPM (and similar) are the only metrics adjusted, implicitly, by opponent quality FOR SEASON. EWins adjusted by opponent game performance.

[Mike G]

Yes, and I don't foresee going into play-by-play, since I want a stat that is more applicable in the bygone century.
Among boxscore-based stats, eWins does account for opponent quality by using games started to estimate the fraction of a player's opponents which have been starters.

So for example, Valanciunas starts every game but only goes 20 mpg. So a formula estimates 86% of the others on the court with him have been starting-caliber players.
If he got his stats while coming off the bench, his estimated Sta% is just .47, and his eW/484 subsequently drops from 1.64 to 1.36

It's my opinion that WinShares, BPM, and PER could all benefit from such an adjustment. And they might not even have to estimate Sta%.

[Crow]

Yes, you adjust more than the well known box score metrics and your discussion shows how context insensitive the common box score metrics are, compared to yours and especially RPM, which many (including many of the prominent and / or insiders) hesitate to use and instead rely on context unstated / unadjusted / unconsidered for their insensitivity boxscore metrics or raw stats and maybe eyetests faced with all the same issues that they don't talk about or seem as concerned by.


S Adams, a most improved here; but on RPM it is down from earlier in season, down from last season and down from his earlier peak before getting the huge early extension, before the league shifted away from traditions centers (and maybe wrongfully overall, on average).

[Mike G]

At 30% of the season, increase in eWins over last year's rates, in this year's minutes.
Current season on the left, last year stats on the right.

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eW+   per36 rates  tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484       Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  e484
1.32  D Sabonis   Ind  .586   17.2  12.7   3.0   1.42  OkC .466    9.8   6.7   1.9   .31
1.26  V Oladipo   Ind  .582   25.1   5.8   4.1   1.73  OkC .529   17.2   4.9   3.0   .97
1.15  S Dinwiddie Brk  .530   15.4   4.3   8.8   1.50      .566   10.6   4.2   4.7   .56
1.08 Jarrett Jack NYK  .464    7.8   5.0   8.6    .71  NOP .750    7.1    .0   4.9  -.21
1.01  B Ingram    LAL  .508   16.3   5.7   3.0    .86      .467   10.0   5.0   2.4   .26

.98  Jaylen Brown Bos  .544   17.7   7.0   1.7   1.08      .531   12.2   5.9   1.8   .45
.97  Aaron Gordon Orl  .605   18.9   8.8   2.3   1.47      .523   15.0   6.5   2.2   .89
.94   Kelly Oubre Was  .547   14.9   6.9   1.5    .88      .510    9.5   5.8   1.0   .22
.86   L Aldridge  SAS  .566   26.1   9.2   2.5   2.08      .525   20.0   8.6   2.4  1.56
.82   K Porzingis NYK  .563   28.6   8.2   1.2   1.94      .538   19.2   8.0   1.5  1.31

eW+   per36 rates  tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484       Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  e484
.82  Clint Capela Hou  .652   19.9  17.2   2.3   2.39      .628   18.9  12.7   1.8  1.71
.75   K Anderson  SAS  .559   12.6   8.4   4.3   1.22      .518    8.5   7.3   3.3   .64
.70   Kris Dunn   Chi  .489   14.6   6.1   5.2    .88  Min .428    6.4   4.6   4.7   .23
.69   D Valentine Chi  .501   11.0   6.5   3.2    .69      .490    9.4   5.2   2.1   .20
.69   Jeff Green  Cle  .589   16.8   5.6   2.7   1.04  Orl .497   12.9   4.8   1.6   .41   

.68  Courtney Lee NYK  .608   15.2   4.3   3.2    .90      .554   11.9   3.9   2.5   .48
.65  Devin Booker Phx  .564   24.4   4.7   4.1   1.40      .523   21.5   3.3   3.4  1.03
.65  Jerami Grant OkC  .576   13.9   6.2   1.5    .81      .544    9.3   4.7   1.0   .20
.63  Jakob Poeltl Tor  .667   16.3  10.1    .9   1.29      .575    9.6   9.3    .7   .41
.61   J Clarkson  LAL  .557   22.2   4.2   4.0   1.23      .522   16.1   3.6   2.9   .68

Jaylen Brown has cooled some, and Oladipo is on a tear.
East with 11 of the 13 biggest improvers.

This top 20 are now ranked by an xyz of 5 metrics, averaged and normalized to the same scale as above. Showing those within half of the front-runner:

Code: Select all

xyz   improved    min   PER   WS/48  BPM   RPM   e484      PER  WS/48  BPM   RPM  e484
1.42   V Oladipo  802   22.4  .138   3.7   4.0   1.73     13.6  .086  -1.4   1.7   .97
1.32   J Brown    754   14.0  .122   0.1   1.1   1.08     10.3  .053  -4.0  -3.1   .45
1.23   D Sabonis  575   18.4  .146   0.3  -1.0   1.42      6.9  .022  -4.9  -2.0   .31
1.14   A Gordon   813   20.4  .162   3.3   1.5   1.47     14.5  .076  -0.7   0.5   .89
1.13   Jeff Green 531   17.8  .149  -0.3    .6   1.04     10.6  .022  -4.6   3.4   .41

1.08  S Dinwiddie 598   18.0  .163   2.1   3.6   1.50     12.7  .101  -0.9  -0.5   .56
1.00   B Ingram   812   12.8  .060  -2.3  -2.5    .86      8.6 -.007  -4.0  -4.7   .26
.96    D Booker   851   19.4  .097   0.7    .1   1.40     14.6  .035  -2.3  -1.3  1.03
.91    L Aldridge 799   25.1  .230   3.4   1.7   2.08     18.7  .149   1.1   1.3  1.56
.89  Courtney Lee 779   15.6  .140   3.2    .7    .90     12.2  .081  -0.0  -0.9   .48

.82  Clint Capela 583   25.8  .271   4.8   1.5   2.39     21.5  .185   1.0   0.0  1.71
.79   J Clarkson  539   18.4  .107  -0.7  -1.0   1.23     13.2  .024  -2.7  -4.0   .68
.73   Kelly Oubre 690   13.8  .113   0.1   0.7    .88      9.1  .062  -2.3  -1.5   .22
.73  Jerami Grant 513   15.1  .155   0.5  -1.3    .81     10.1  .092  -2.1  -4.1   .20

In per-minute improvement, it's Sabonis and Green.
I could not find Brown or Clarkson in the RPM list, so they're zero here.
If I give them RPM=1.0, Brown displaces Sabonis at #2. Clarkson moves up to tie Booker.
table edited

[Crow]

J Brown is plus 1.12 on page 1 of SGs. Clarkson -1.04 on page 2 of PGs.

There have been other reports of missing players, brought to JE's attention.

[Mike G]

Thanks, man.
B-r.com tells me Clarkson is SG, and Brown is SF.
This year, Brown has played SG 38% of the time, the rest at F. Last year, zero at G.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... nja02.html

Clarkson has been PG for 53% of this year's minutes, up from 8%.
I really hate having to find one player out of 445.

Players who did not start the season on a roster generally don't seem to ever appear at espn RPM listing.

[shadow]

Here are the top 20 most improved players in vanilla RAPM. The improvement is in terms of how much higher their RAPM z-score is this year compared to last year.

Code: Select all

Player             Improvement
Kyle Korver              3.71
Dwight Powell            3.55
Marquese Chriss          3.13
D.J. Augustin            2.78
Andre Drummond           2.45
Chandler Parsons         2.43
Reggie Jackson           2.39
Langston Galloway        2.29
Julius Randle            2.26
Joe Harris               2.26
Nicolas Brussino          2.2
Jaylen Brown              2.2
Al Horford               2.19
Jahlil Okafor            2.15
Dwyane Wade              2.08
Jordan Clarkson          2.08
Yogi Ferrell             1.99
Trevor Ariza             1.98
Devin Harris             1.98
Lance Thomas             1.98

Here's the top 20 in terms of biggest drops:

Code: Select all

Player            Decline
Rudy Gobert         -3.43
George Hill         -3.38
Jae Crowder         -3.31
LeBron James        -3.18
Patrick Patterson   -2.84
Denzel Valentine     -2.8
Cristiano Felicio   -2.77
Kevin Love          -2.76
Maurice Harkless    -2.74
Dragan Bender       -2.64
Jerian Grant        -2.52
Gorgui Dieng        -2.43
Harrison Barnes     -2.43
Nerlens Noel        -2.29
Paul Zipser         -2.25
JaVale McGee        -2.18
Shabazz Muhammad    -2.13
JaMychal Green       -2.1
Joe Ingles          -2.08
DeAndre Jordan      -2.08

[Crow]

So slightly more than 40 z scores changed by more than 2 year to year. Or more than 90% changed by less than 2, at this early stage. What about in terms of raw point estimates?

Chriss still negative?

[Rd11490]

I took a look at these improvement numbers to see who's might be driven by either the team is shooting poorly or well while the player is on the court and/or the opponent is shooting poorly or well while the player is on the court. I don't have this data for free throws yet, but I plan to generate it sometime this week.

ePPS is the expected points per shot based on the shooters career average at the shot location
PPS is the actual points per shot taken
Anyone not on my list has seen less than 100 offensive/defensive shots so far this season.

Top 20
https://imgur.com/q4i8vfQ.png

Bottom 20
https://i.imgur.com/tS024Mp.png

Offense Defense
Diff Diff
Max 0.172 0.218
Min -0.262 -0.152
Mean -0.034 0.029
STDev 0.057 0.049

Some thoughts:
Shabazz has been extremely unlucky on defense as have Noel, Dieng, Patterson, Felicio and Crowder
Patterson has been unlucky on offense as well
JaMychal Green has been lucky on O
Reggie Jackson has been pretty unlucky on D
Al Horford and Devin Harris have been lucky on O