My quick assessment is:
Gordon-Vucevic is the core. Meh to good but better than anything other than a total blow-up.
Trade Payton. Before or after re-signing. He isn't worth the salary expected.
Trade as many of Ross, Simmons, Hezonja, Afflalo and Biyombo as possible for younger or cheaper. Package them with Payton if it improves the return.
Retain Fournier unless you get a good offer. Retain Augustin, Mack, Speights.
There is little good in lineup data, so experiment aggressively.
Plan on 2-3 years of work til you might be in playoffs.
Direction for Magic
Re: Direction for Magic
E Payton ranked 56th on RPM for PGs. J Simmons near absolute bottom for wings. Both had plenty of role & opportunity.
Re: Direction for Magic
9 of 10 most used lineups negative. 7 of the 9 bad to terrible. 3 used around 4 minutes per game is better than most but still very inadequate testing / concentration or is at least not figured it out concentration level. 18 of top 20 player pairs are negative. If there was good strategy and / or player development, you'd hope to see a few more positive signs and building upon them.
Just 26% of lineups used less than 40 minutes for season (I.e. dink lineups) are cumulatively positive. Continue to serial dink or try to concentrate more and more as you learn? I know my preference.
Just 26% of lineups used less than 40 minutes for season (I.e. dink lineups) are cumulatively positive. Continue to serial dink or try to concentrate more and more as you learn? I know my preference.
Re: Direction for Magic
Some of cases of Magic "player development":
Payton improves individual stats but sucked on raw plus minus and below starter level on RPM. Gone for a 2nd round after being team development focus for a long time. Hezonja, recent minutes and some individual box score improvement. But... 73% worse team raw plus minus over last 10 games compared to previous. Should they be checking / using RPM more than they have (if at all)? Probably. Or something denominated in terms of team impact.
Only Magic talent developed / managed to a positive impact (above Mack's tiny fractional positive) is a plus 1 defensive impact from Speights. That one is remarkable or fluke or might be heightened by worse comparisons. Still just 82nd best estimated impact. Average teams would have 2 ahead of that. Gordon should be one but his estimated impact fell back .75 points (and from small positive to small negative) in this normally big growth 4th year. If your most prized asset is hanging near average across the metrics at this point, it doesn't look that promising. Didn't develop as expected or needed and he appears stalled out. Biggest change this season was usage. TS%, rebounding, defense, etc. stalled out.
Gotta get more positive impacts to rise from near worst to even just bad or near average. Keep doing what they have been (this year or longer)? Probably shouldn't. Probably should change a lot. Methods and measurements.
New regime has cut negative SRS by about a third but the first third from terrible is the easiest... to get to average. Long way to go.
Will they retain Gordon? At overpay? How badly? This summer should be easiest environment to re-sign someone of this situation / quality in a long time but they probably overpay.
Payton improves individual stats but sucked on raw plus minus and below starter level on RPM. Gone for a 2nd round after being team development focus for a long time. Hezonja, recent minutes and some individual box score improvement. But... 73% worse team raw plus minus over last 10 games compared to previous. Should they be checking / using RPM more than they have (if at all)? Probably. Or something denominated in terms of team impact.
Only Magic talent developed / managed to a positive impact (above Mack's tiny fractional positive) is a plus 1 defensive impact from Speights. That one is remarkable or fluke or might be heightened by worse comparisons. Still just 82nd best estimated impact. Average teams would have 2 ahead of that. Gordon should be one but his estimated impact fell back .75 points (and from small positive to small negative) in this normally big growth 4th year. If your most prized asset is hanging near average across the metrics at this point, it doesn't look that promising. Didn't develop as expected or needed and he appears stalled out. Biggest change this season was usage. TS%, rebounding, defense, etc. stalled out.
Gotta get more positive impacts to rise from near worst to even just bad or near average. Keep doing what they have been (this year or longer)? Probably shouldn't. Probably should change a lot. Methods and measurements.
New regime has cut negative SRS by about a third but the first third from terrible is the easiest... to get to average. Long way to go.
Will they retain Gordon? At overpay? How badly? This summer should be easiest environment to re-sign someone of this situation / quality in a long time but they probably overpay.
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Dr Positivity
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Re: Direction for Magic
Keep Gordon, with him hitting 35% from 3 he is a very modern player on both ends and the upside is worth it
Re: Direction for Magic
With BPM and RPM values this meh in year 4 I have trouble being optimistic. A better future is still possible as you suggest but is by no means a certainty or imo a good bet. Yes he is trying to be modern but RPM has him as 45th most effective PF. That isn't very valuable. Even if grows up into 20th, he is probably going to get paid more than should be paid in team biased times. Definitely wait on offer sheet and think hard. Sign n trades have been rare but I'd work the angle and see if you could get some interesting mix of stuff out of it. There are dumb and / or desperate teams out there. But moreso than Magic? I dunno.
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Dr Positivity
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- Joined: Thu Sep 20, 2012 6:44 pm
Re: Direction for Magic
I thought Oladipo may be a good comparison for having patience, but I guess in the case of RPM was already a fan of his before he broke out. Oladipo was top 5 for SGs in 15-16 and 16-17. So it's not as promising for Gordon.
Re: Direction for Magic
Most lineups (and sub-lineups) are bad to terrible with J Simmons for season. Vast majority of his big minute lineups still negative in last 15 games and getting more minutes than the few better ones.
Overall 75% of top 20 most used Magic lineups negative for season. Only 50% recently. Maybe some progress (or change in randomness) but not near enough.
Ross over Simmons with starters did well in brief minutes. Probably should try more of that next season.
Overall 75% of top 20 most used Magic lineups negative for season. Only 50% recently. Maybe some progress (or change in randomness) but not near enough.
Ross over Simmons with starters did well in brief minutes. Probably should try more of that next season.
Re: Direction for Magic
Most used Magic lineup over last 10 games is mildly positive and really big minutes. Hooray! Rest of lineup managent is typical chaos, big negative overall though. So tanking on track and vision for next season in sight. Settle for that I guess.
Current big minute lineup benefits from absence of Payton and Biyombo. Simmons should be out too imo.
Current big minute lineup benefits from absence of Payton and Biyombo. Simmons should be out too imo.
Re: Direction for Magic
Hezonja drifting back slightly on individual efficiency (never made it above meh- unless you are impressed by big minute per game stats). Raw plus minus still sucks. No player development success there.
Above league average team strengths? None that I see. Just a mix of average and below average. Is this the low point and they build from here? I see no reason they are going up next season. Draft picks may help 3-5-7 years down the line.
Getting to show is one thing, but what matters most is what you do there.
Player development of Jonathan Issac? Maybe you can look past the Payton, Hezonja, Simmons and other failures. But Issac? Offensive performance about as bad as you could imagine. Defense, a mixed bag, some promise. Long way to go to just weak overall instead of really weak, then long way to average. What does the success path look like: weak side occasional blocker who adds what? 30 pounds of muscle? A better 3 point shot for a rare basket? Slightly elevated defensive rebounding? What were the expectations / projections of the draft team?
Player development of Aaron Gordon? Metric score vary from slightly below average to slightly above. Not that much change from year 2. Not near what the selective, enthusiast eye test hypesters expected / promised. An athlete with no real superpowers. Stats on a crappy team cuz somebody had to get them. Pay him big or huge? Wouldn't feel good about it but they will since they have so little else even working to average level.
"Gordon-Vucevic is the core"... of an average at best team, though average might feel good compare to now. Isaac-Biyombo is a disaster but the most tested of his pairs. Just modestly weak with Vuc. Good with Gordon but of course the least tested. You have a suck season and have only tested this pair 68 minutes? Insane oversight in lineup management. What skill makes Issac a PF? What skill is going to make Gordon an above average starter PF? Maybe they should try both at center. Nothing else to "sticking with". One or more big should be dealt. Or all of them.
What is the design? Why hasn't it worked? Is it out of the blue going to start working (for longer than a few weeks)? Why? What's next?
Above league average team strengths? None that I see. Just a mix of average and below average. Is this the low point and they build from here? I see no reason they are going up next season. Draft picks may help 3-5-7 years down the line.
Getting to show is one thing, but what matters most is what you do there.
Player development of Jonathan Issac? Maybe you can look past the Payton, Hezonja, Simmons and other failures. But Issac? Offensive performance about as bad as you could imagine. Defense, a mixed bag, some promise. Long way to go to just weak overall instead of really weak, then long way to average. What does the success path look like: weak side occasional blocker who adds what? 30 pounds of muscle? A better 3 point shot for a rare basket? Slightly elevated defensive rebounding? What were the expectations / projections of the draft team?
Player development of Aaron Gordon? Metric score vary from slightly below average to slightly above. Not that much change from year 2. Not near what the selective, enthusiast eye test hypesters expected / promised. An athlete with no real superpowers. Stats on a crappy team cuz somebody had to get them. Pay him big or huge? Wouldn't feel good about it but they will since they have so little else even working to average level.
"Gordon-Vucevic is the core"... of an average at best team, though average might feel good compare to now. Isaac-Biyombo is a disaster but the most tested of his pairs. Just modestly weak with Vuc. Good with Gordon but of course the least tested. You have a suck season and have only tested this pair 68 minutes? Insane oversight in lineup management. What skill makes Issac a PF? What skill is going to make Gordon an above average starter PF? Maybe they should try both at center. Nothing else to "sticking with". One or more big should be dealt. Or all of them.
What is the design? Why hasn't it worked? Is it out of the blue going to start working (for longer than a few weeks)? Why? What's next?
Re: Direction for Magic
Hezonja improvement: from worst rated player in league by RPM last season to just bottom 15% SF. Average next season? I dunno. I'd guess no, but will it be closer? Probably.
Re: Direction for Magic
Hezonja maybe a little better than that last report and not over really over the hump yet.
Fournier is probably best development story and not that much. Still a below average star.
Likely 3 plus years to making playoffs, likely more than 3. Almost certainly longer for any significant chance for more than that.
Fournier is probably best development story and not that much. Still a below average star.
Likely 3 plus years to making playoffs, likely more than 3. Almost certainly longer for any significant chance for more than that.