Analyzing the Celtics

[Rd11490]

I'm in the process of writing the code to do just that. I'll post the results in the season insights thread.

[Mike G]

I think there is a good amount of luck. The difference in their defensive points per shot and expected points per shot has halved since earlier in the season and their expected points per shot has increased from .99 to 1.005.

What is meant by "expected points"?

[Rd11490]

Expected points is how many points a team would score/allow if the shooter shot their career average based on the shot location. It's a sticky number in that it doesn't account for good shot defense or improvements in a players shot, and it definitely has it's downsides, but it helps shed some light on some of the D and O ratings as well as gives a direction for further study.

[Crow]

Celtics raw defensive efficiency over last 5 games at league average. ( College length season winding down. 2 more on the way.)

[Crow]

Fwiw, pretty large decline in raw plus minus over last 10 games compared to full season data for Brown, Smart, Horford, Rozier, Larkin. Not as much for Irving, Tatum, Baynes, Morris, Theis.

[Crow]

Celtics giving up about 5 more ftas in last 10 games than in prior games.

[Crow]

Committed a bit too many fouls again tonight. Fall to 5-6 in last 11. B-Ref gave them about a 20% chance of retaining top seed in East before tonight.