Crow wrote:Any prediction about "leadership quality" of Doncic and for those other names? By what means if any can we project leadership quality? Individual stats alone usually don't get the ultimate prize.
RPM / BPM ratio? Or just high on both? Actual win% vs Pythagorean expected? Clutch and crunch play? Peak performances? Leadership assessment of interview texts? Visual analysis of teammate interactions? Statistical responses to adverse conditions including road games, losing streaks, top opponents (individual & team) but more granular too (poor shooting streaks, not getting to line experiences, pair data with stars, avg. and weak players, etc.)
Collaboration skills with coaches & GMs? Assessment of importance of various goals? Assessment of confidence level or confidence type? Listening skills / coachability? Ability to rise above coaching? Teammate reaction to star behavior & personality on and off court? In what ways is he like / not like Hakeem, Manu, Pau, Dirk as a person / player? (and Hezonja, Bogdanovic, Porzingis, Giannis, Galinari, Jokic, Mirotic, JVal and other non NBA titlists, yet)
I'll try to answer point by point as best as I can:
-Seems to show good leadership. Vocal, wears his heart on his sleeve. Being the youngest guy on the team he isn't a lockerroom leader beyond a certain point, but on the court the ball is almost always in his hands in crunch time.
-I'd guess he's modestly better by box score stats than by plus/minus stats; he's arguably the best player in Europe by box score, and quick analysis suggests he's at least a mild positive in plus/minus terms (that's above RM's baseline, which is something like +10 per 100).
-Qualitatively it seems like he's struggled some in crunch time, but he wants the ball in his hands (though he may look to pass rather than shoot). On the flip side he's had some of his best games against the league's best teams, most notably 20 points, 8 boards, 10 assists, and 2 steals in a road win against #2 Fenerbahce a few weeks ago, and 11 points, 12 boards, 8 assists in the Eurobasket semis in a win over championship favorite Spain. He had a solid clutch performance a few days ago too, scoring on a pair of free throws and a floater, then assisting on the game winner.
-RM has overperformed relative to pythagorean in ACB play, underperformed in Euroleague, so a wash overall there.
-With RM having lost 4 of their last 5 in Euroleague play and trailing by 9 going into the 4th on the road against a solid Olympiacos team, Doncic scored or assisted on 20 points in the fourth quarter and overtime in a comeback bid that ultimately fell short. Ended up scoring 33 points in 38 minutes. He definitely plays to win no matter what, though perhaps he is sometimes prone to slipping into a more passive role, especially when playing with another point guard.
-Will get on the floor or dive into the stands for loose balls, almost no matter the game situation. Can be aggressive to a fault on defense, closing out too hard and giving up a blow-by. As I mentioned before, if there's a couple seconds left in a quarter/half, he'll actively call for the ball to try to get a shot up from 3/4 court.
-Coach's son. Seems coachable, and haven't heard anything to the contrary. Accepts coming off the bench in spite of being pretty clearly the best player on the team.
-Very daring passer, regularly attempts high degree of difficulty passes (between the legs passes, no-look passes) with mixed results. Fast with the ball in the open court, wants to turn every play into a fast break and expects his teammates to run with him. Once he has a head of steam he keeps going, even if it's 1-on-4 (again with mixed results). His confidence is more tempered as a shooter; as soon as he draws the double team he's immediately looking to pass, and usually does well in these scenarios. Doesn't normally chuck 3's early in the shot clock, even if he has a little room. He's not lightning quick getting his shot up off the dribble, which plays into this.
-Manu is a bit of a lazy comparison for him in general, but I think his personality is similar. He's not a freak athlete like Manu is, but he's bigger and stronger. Same "master of chaos" style of play.
This is a good article if you want to read about him at length.
http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/2066 ... uka-doncic
Some excerpts:
Eager to spend as much time on the court as possible, Doncic would beg his parents to go practice with the older teams on his off days. "I often told Luka, 'Tomorrow you are free -- be at home, play with your toys or something, you have to rest,'" said Jernej Smolnikar, Doncic's selection team coach from 2007 to 2011. "The next day at 12 his parents would call me saying, 'Please can Luka come to practice, he's begging to play.' His passion to compete was unbelievable."
Doncic was more physically gifted and skilled than all of his peers, and many of his elders, but it was his mental makeup, competitive nature and incredible basketball instincts that impressed most at that age. Whether it was an innate characteristic or a product of growing up around the game, the Slovenian sensation was wired differently -- joyous and full of life, yet confident with a killer mentality.
CSKA Moscow mainstay and former Euroleague defensive player of the year Kyle Hines remembers first seeing a 16-year-old Doncic on the personnel report as the Russian powerhouse prepared for a game against Real Madrid in January 2016.
"I looked at my scouting report and thought to myself, this kid is 16 years old?" Hines said.
With Llull, Real Madrid's star guard, out due to injury, Doncic was likely to play extended minutes. The CSKA coaching staff wanted to test the teenage Doncic defensively while forcing him to beat them from the perimeter on the other end. Expecting the young Slovenian guard to struggle with the magnitude of playing in a road Euroleague game, CSKA went under every ball screen, defending Doncic "Ricky Rubio style," as Hines explained.
Doncic made 3 triples in a two-minute, second-quarter stretch, finishing with 12 points and five rebounds in 13 minutes, proving to Hines and CSKA that his thirst for pressure existed even in the Euroleague.
"For him it's natural," said Igor Kokoskov, Slovenian national team head coach and longtime NBA assistant. "He's fearless. He loves to compete. He loves to be on the biggest stage."
"I feel like I want to be the hero of the game, you know?" Doncic said. "Every time I wanted the ball in my hands, from the very beginning. I have missed some important shots before but you need to learn from this. You need to move on. If you have a nice game or a bad game, you will have a thousand more games."
