MVP race 2018

[Mike G]

2 weeks and 2 days ago, the statistical mvp race looked like this:

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xyz     mvp      tm   Wins    WS   vorp
16.2   LeBron   Cle   15.0   14.9   9.3
15.5   Harden   Hou   15.2   15.6   7.8
13.8   Giannis  Mil   13.6   14.9   6.5
13.7  Westbrook OKC   15.1   10.3   7.8
12.7   Butler   Min   15.0   12.5   5.3

12.0   Towns    Min   13.0   13.0   5.0
11.4   Davis    NOP   11.8   13.5   4.4
11.2   Cousins  NOP   15.4    8.0   5.1
10.9   Curry    GSW   11.4   11.1   5.1
10.3   Drummond Det    9.3   10.3   5.7

10.2   Oladipo  Ind   12.6    8.9   4.5
10.1   Irving   Bos    9.9   10.9   4.7
10.0   Lowry    Tor   11.4    9.2   4.7
9.9    DeRozan  Tor   10.0   12.3   3.7
9.7    Horford  Bos   10.6    9.8   4.4
9.7    Durant   GSW    9.7   10.2   4.6

These are RPM Wins from ESPN; and from b-r.com, Win Shares and VORP; all extrapolated to 82 team games.
xyz = (Wins + WS + VORP*2)/3
VORP is doubled to give it roughly equal weight, and they're averaged.

Now it looks like this:

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xyz     mvp      tm   Wins    WS   vorp
15.6   Harden   Hou   14.8   15.7   8.2
14.3   LeBron   Cle   13.6   13.0   8.2
14.0  Westbrook OKC   15.2   10.9   7.9
13.8   Giannis  Mil   14.0   14.4   6.6
12.0   Butler   Min   14.6   11.5   4.9

11.9   Towns    Min   12.3   13.1   5.2
11.4   Davis    NOP   12.0   13.3   4.4
11.4   Curry    GSW   12.0   11.4   5.3
10.9   Drummond Det    9.7   11.0   6.1
10.7   Lillard  Por   11.4   10.8   5.0

10.6   Irving   Bos   10.1   11.7   5.0
10.0   Durant   GSW   10.7   10.1   4.5
9.7    Horford  Bos   11.0    9.5   4.3
9.1    George   OKC   10.8    9.5   3.5

Harden's been great, but LeBron has really taken a tumble.
Jimmy Butler currently shows as #1 in rpmWins, but the Wolves have played more games.
Cousins was in the lineup, but without more games he misses the cut.

[eminence]

Harden seems to be locking it up.

Why double VORP over using a geometric mean?

[Mike G]

Since RPM Wins and Win Shares are on roughly the same scale, I just wanted to reach a single number that is also suggestive of "wins".
Also comparing 2 tables, and that's how I did it the first time.
Going with xyz = (x*y*z)^(1/3), the order changes some: Giannis and Westy flip, as do Towns/Butler and Curry/Davis.

Here are some rather startling details of LeBron's mid-season cratering. The Cavs are somehow 4-3 in this stretch.

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Gms     TRb%   Ast%   Stl%  Blk%  TO%    ORt   DRt
1to43   12.1   43.9   2.3   2.7   16.8   120   108
44-50   10.8   36.9   1.3   1.1   20.2    97   111

Usage is steady at 31, though some of that is just turnovers.
ORtg-DRtg from +12 to -14
Signs of exhaustion, perhaps. And his minutes have actually been up.
Shooting down all over:

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Gms    mpg   FG%   3fg%  eFG%   FT%   TS%   GmSc
1to43  36.9  .557  .376  .606  .770  .639   24.3
44-50  37.8  .473  .182  .496  .612  .525   16.0

He hasn't even had his customary days of rest yet.

Nobody in the first table above had a rise even half of LeBron's dropoff of almost 2. But Damian Lillard has come out of nowhere and into the xyz Top 10:

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Gms     FG%  3fg%  eFG%   TS%   Ast%   TO%    ORt   DRt
1to36  .425  .347  .499  .569   30.6   12.9   114   108
37-45  .530  .473  .648  .705   34.5   10.7   140   115

His last 9 games have otherworldly OffRtg; Blazers 7-2 in this span.
Oh, avg GameScore up from 18 to 23.

[Mike G]

Harden has padded his lead by 50% since last check.

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xyz      mvp     tm   Wins    WS   vorp
16.7   Harden   Hou   16.7   16.3   8.6
14.7   LeBron   Cle   13.6   13.4   8.6
13.3   Giannis  Mil   14.3   13.2   6.2
12.6   Towns    Min   13.4   13.7   5.3
12.6  Westbrook OKC   13.5    9.6   7.3

12.1   Davis    NOP   13.7   13.6   4.5
11.7   Lillard  Por   12.1   11.5   5.6
11.6   Curry    GSW   12.7   11.3   5.3
11.3   Butler   Min   14.4   10.7   4.5
10.7   Durant   GSW   10.6   11.5   4.9

Those are RPM Wins from ESPN. All are projected to 82 games, so Butler is not going to be in the top 10 then.