2017-18 quick observations

[Crow]

Biggest underachievers on actual win% compared to SRS? Jazz, Lakers, 76ers, Hornets and Bucks on quick check.

Of course behavior in blowouts matter, rest management, home/road behavior, reffing, "luck"...

How many of these coaches and / or organizations are less strong than the typical media / fan rating? Most of them? All of them on at least one?

[Crow]

Apparent "luck" is probably higher on average in clutch than for all possessions because of sample size... but who are the players that have the biggest apparent luck variance in clutch vs. all possessions? Across seasons?

[Crow]

This is the most recent summary of NBA Head Coach contracts I could find: http://www.otherleague.com/contracts/nb ... -salaries/

Will Popovich serve out next season? Said he would but I wouldn't be that surprised if he didn't, transitioning into front office or out entirely.

[Crow]

Griz- tank or suck or both? 0-10 recently.

[Crow]

Wiggins even less "good" in last few weeks than before. Great argument for using one metrics. Anyone defending him without one metrics is imo ducking.

[Crow]

At player level, the worst performing Spur recently is Ginobili. At team level there are 2 recent weaknesses ( 3pta and off rebs) and 3 strengths (fta, own turnovers and own fouls). The recent record probably shouldn't be this bad. Is it "bad luck", bad clutch play, bad coaching or a combination?

[Crow]

I assume the Hawks both stink and are tanking. They seem to know how to do it: stars leaving for nothing, little backfill, weak opening roster, respected coach, old players that people aren't surprised weren't good then jettisoned, young pieces that are meh to weak, even younger players who you "have to try" and "can try" and look like you are trying, bad shooting, terrible defense, lax ball control, uninspired effort against anyone including average & bad teams, tied for worst road record, probably weak clutch play, etc. Quite comprehensive, adds up. Keeping a low profile...

Is this going to be multi-year? The new "process"? Surely Adam Silver is watching. Cutting them more slack than others, cuz no other way back up? When does he have to speak up in "fairness" and for "integrity of game"?

What has Grant Hill added to Hawks? Actively for the tank or just along for the ride? Is this driven by Schlenk, Bud, ownership or all in agreement on an intentional plan? What did analytic department do right and wrong to be here now? How many hundreds of millions in franchise value have they lost in last year compared to what they'd have if they sustained competitiveness or even respectability? How much can they get back, how quick on revenues as well as valuation? Should be good time to buy players, might cycle in right direction... if they dump their current not stars, not even really average guys paid pretty well. May, when they are done tanking... or as a second phase of tanking?

Back in playoffs before 2021? Very unlikely. Win a series before 2023? I doubt it. Who I left at any level by 2025? John Collins and nobody else?

[Crow]

If Mudiay keeps up current plus / minus pace, he'll end up biggest cumulative minus for season. Great eyes there Steve & Scott! How much are you going to pay him?

Lots of insiders need to give more credence to RPM... or do a better job with the alternatives while ignoring RPM.

[Crow]

Nets

Is D'Angelo good at anything? Not really. Is he bad? If you go by his replacement level RPM, yes. Hollis-Jefferson looks mostly alright on individual stats but by RPM he has estimated modest negative impact. Pay either of these guys big? I wouldn't.

Okafor trial, some decent stats, absolutely horrendous raw team plus minus on court. So fail, experiment fail.

I'd try to trade everyone on roster besides Allen, Dinwiddie and probably LeVert. Relying on more than that doesn't sound too promising to me.

[Crow]

Doug McDermott is doing the best on raw team plus minus on the court. Surprising... and should be a cause to say yikes. But the tanking / stinking was entrenched, and even if caught, is still going on.

[Crow]

Does Stan Van Gundy keep his job? I doubt it. Maybe you could have benefited from more advanced analytics. Lousy shooting, extremely lousy shot distribution. If he does survive the off-season, probably not for more than 2 months of stinking next season, followed by change. Probably tanking before complete rebuilding.

Might Hinkie get a shot here? Team should be desperate. But desperate for unreasonable quick fix or a long road to possible fix? Really need to go big one way or other. In between would be pretty ridiculous.

[Crow]

What else is not good or even average with Pistons? Getting to line, assist making, shot defense. Rebounding isn't as strong as you might expect / they need. Winning less than 1/3rd of time again playoff teams, only 25% win against top ten scoring teams , can't win 50% of time against any kind of middle tier teams, unimpressive against bad teams.

They do have some good factors but they are not the biggest ones (shoting / shot defense), not big enough to offset.

RPM? If you looked and saw best player at 64th, new acquisition Griffin at 96th, you wouldn't be surprised by record. But ignore it, scoff at it and much of advanced analytics and do whatever they are doing and maybe they end up where they have. Old school. And probably out.

[Crow]

Oh, hey, that new referree management. Such communication with the coaches. Everybody on same page, working together. Visibility, accountability. Yeah, uh huh...

[Crow]

Coaches & players may or may not be right or more right than wrong about the officiating but the goal is more tolerance or at least less public whining. Are the officials too brusque and unwilling to listen / explain? Maybe but that can be overdone and lead to too much time spent and maybe improper influence. Issue isn't going away but it seems heightened this season.

[Crow]

Westbrook almost averages a triple double and the team is playing well recently. There are some signs of a down season or past his peak: 3s made per game, lowest since the season that he started at age 23. 29 now. FTM, lowest since 21. TS%, lowest since 21. Winshares/48, lowest since 23. PER & BPM, which really favorable a player who dominates the ball, lowest since 25.

RPM, lowest in 5 years we've had it. 18th place. Never quite cracked top 5 (two 6th places). Might get back in top 10 if George leaves. Maybe top 5.

Title? It is probably this season or never with Thunder. 30 shortly after start of next season. Monster salaries stretch to the horizon.

Down season or past his peak? Probably past his peak but could get back closer to it for a few years. The decline is mainly in shooting / scoring, the hardest thing for him. (Except maybe trying on defense much of the time.)