Home for all your discussion of basketball statistical analysis.
Mike G
Posts: 6154 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Fri Jun 01, 2018 10:13 am
Warriors 1 , Cavs 0
124-114 in overtime
Pythagorean wins .75 - .25, eWins .63 - .37
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e530
.26 LeBron James Cle 47 .680 39.9 6.6 4.7 .8 4.2 .8 2.91
.15 Stephen Curry GS 46 .604 21.2 5.0 7.3 .8 1.8 .0 1.73
.15 Draymond Green GS 47 .684 10.2 8.9 6.9 3.8 1.8 1.5 1.64
.14 Kevin Durant GS 46 .481 15.9 7.5 4.9 .8 .9 2.3 1.61
.09 Kevin Love Cle 40 .500 14.9 12.8 .8 .0 1.0 .0 1.14
.07 Shaun Livingston GS 18 1.00 25.5 4.0 5.5 1.9 .0 .0 2.15
.07 Larry Nance Cle 19 .563 13.7 21.1 .0 1.8 .0 .0 1.94
.05 Klay Thompson GS 45 .686 19.0 2.6 .8 .0 .9 .0 .62
.03 Kevon Looney GS 25 .800 13.1 6.3 .0 1.5 .0 .0 .60
.02 JaVale McGee GS 6 .667 20.7 5.8 .0 .0 .0 5.3 1.75
eWins per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e530
.02 Jordan Bell GS 13 .667 10.1 5.4 5.1 .0 .0 .0 .71
.00 Jeff Green Cle 36 .389 4.5 3.2 4.1 1.0 1.1 .0 -.04
.00 Jordan Clarkson Cle 17 .222 3.4 6.4 .0 2.0 2.2 2.0 -.09
-.01 Kyle Korver Cle 16 .429 4.3 4.5 1.7 .0 .0 .0 -.24
-.01 T Thompson Cle 20 .250 1.8 10.1 .0 .0 2.1 1.9 -.22
-.01 J.R. Smith Cle 39 .455 6.9 6.1 1.6 .0 2.0 .0 -.12
-.01 George Hill Cle 31 .500 6.5 2.6 1.0 1.2 .0 .0 -.19
-.02 Nick Young GS 10 .250 3.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 -.90
shooting:
GS .620 - .518 Cle
rebounds/48: Cle 48.0 - 34.4 GS
turnovers: GS 8 - 12 Cle
schtevie
Posts: 377 Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:24 pm
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by schtevie Fri Jun 01, 2018 11:46 pm
Having not watched the game, I am interested in hearing from those that did. Kyle Korver was +12 in just 16 minutes. He did not have an impressive box score performance (and I have seen no mention of his impact in media commentary - unsurprisingly) but the scoreboard moved in the right direction when he was on the court. Impressions on whether this was more randomness or a real effect?
Crow
Posts: 10565 Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm
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by Crow Sat Jun 02, 2018 3:51 am
Almost plus 8 per game in 1500 regular season minutes. More than plus 3 in about 500 playoff minutes, second best on team. If adjusted for increased playoff opponent quality, these marks would be closer.
Mike G
Posts: 6154 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Sat Jun 02, 2018 11:19 am
Cavs were +8 with Jordan Clarkson on the floor, too. He and Korver watched Nance2 kick butt around the basket. LeBron also had some good runs to the hoop in the 2nd Q, when Cle went up 51-40.
Korver played about half of the 4th Q, made a shot, Jeff Green made some nice plays, the Dubs got careless, Cavs came back from -6.
http://www.espn.com/nba/playbyplay?gameId=401034613
schtevie
Posts: 377 Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:24 pm
Post
by schtevie Sat Jun 02, 2018 1:59 pm
Thanks for that. I semi-cynically view game coaching as a form of performance art, where coaches gotta coach because they get paid the big bucks and that is what they do, and lineup changes is coaching, so the more the merrier. In the instance, Kyle Korver was doing just great in an unadjusted sense and wasn't bumping up against any fatigue constraints (based on regular season mpg). What would be the motivation to diminish his playing time in such a critical circumstance?
Crow
Posts: 10565 Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm
Post
by Crow Mon Jun 04, 2018 2:48 am
Probably not beating the Warriors with good or better performance by 4 guys. If your top 6 outperform their top 6 it might happen. Sure big or huge performances help but still need to add to it.
Mike G
Posts: 6154 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Mon Jun 04, 2018 10:44 am
Warriors 2 , Cavs 0
avg score 123.0 - 108.5
Pyth wins 1.68 - .32, eWins 1.34 - .66
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e505
.40 LeBron James Cle 46 .645 31.4 7.2 6.5 1.2 4.4 .4 2.24
.37 Stephen Curry GS 42 .608 27.1 6.1 9.7 .9 3.2 .0 2.21
.35 Kevin Durant GS 43 .605 22.2 8.4 6.9 .4 1.8 2.2 2.08
.22 Draymond Green GS 44 .621 7.6 8.7 8.3 2.1 .9 1.3 1.27
.19 Kevin Love Cle 37 .518 16.9 12.0 .9 1.0 1.1 .5 1.32
.13 Shaun Livingston GS 17 1.00 26.6 7.1 4.5 .9 1.0 .0 2.00
.12 Klay Thompson GS 40 .698 21.5 2.5 1.1 .5 1.5 .0 .76
.07 Larry Nance Cle 16 .500 8.9 18.3 .9 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.22
.07 JaVale McGee GS 12 .842 26.4 4.5 .0 .0 .0 2.8 1.57
.05 David West GS 8 1.25 17.1 6.4 7.2 .0 4.2 5.9 1.62
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e505
.03 Jordan Bell GS 12 .643 11.8 4.2 4.7 1.3 .0 .0 .72
.02 George Hill Cle 33 .550 10.3 2.4 2.0 1.7 .6 .6 .19
.01 Tristan Thompson Cle 22 .500 8.2 8.7 .0 .0 .9 .8 .17
.00 Kevon Looney GS 18 .571 7.0 5.2 1.2 1.0 .0 .0 .04
-.01 Jeff Green Cle 28 .382 5.1 3.2 3.2 .6 .7 .0 -.08
-.01 Jordan Clarkson Cle 13 .231 3.3 5.0 1.1 2.4 2.6 1.2 -.26
-.02 Kyle Korver Cle 17 .286 2.0 4.1 1.7 .0 .0 1.0 -.37
-.04 J.R. Smith Cle 35 .366 4.9 3.9 1.9 1.1 1.7 .0 -.27
-.05 Nick Young GS 13 .111 .7 1.3 .0 .0 .0 .0 -.94
shooting: GS .637 - .509 Cle
rebounds/48: Cle 45.1 - 37.5 GS
turnovers: GS 10.0 - 11.5 Cle
Mike G
Posts: 6154 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Thu Jun 07, 2018 10:41 am
Warriors 3 , Cavs 0
avg score 118.7 - 106.3
pyth wins 2.43 - .57, eWins 1.97 - 1.03
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e497
.70 Kevin Durant GS 43 .683 30.1 9.6 6.7 .6 2.1 1.4 2.72
.62 LeBron James Cle 46 .604 28.7 7.4 6.8 1.3 4.0 .8 2.24
.41 Stephen Curry GS 41 .529 20.3 5.8 9.0 .9 2.9 .0 1.67
.34 Kevin Love Cle 35 .553 19.2 13.0 1.5 1.0 1.5 .3 1.60
.28 Draymond Green GS 42 .596 8.1 6.6 8.8 2.0 1.2 .9 1.11
.17 Shaun Livingston GS 17 .933 23.8 4.8 4.5 .6 .7 .0 1.61
.14 Klay Thompson GS 40 .635 16.8 3.0 1.5 .6 1.0 .3 .59
.13 JaVale McGee GS 13 .788 27.0 5.8 .0 .0 1.0 3.6 1.71
.11 Jordan Bell GS 12 .679 17.7 8.4 3.1 .9 .0 .9 1.46
.08 Larry Nance Cle 15 .500 9.4 14.7 1.2 .7 1.5 .7 .90
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e497
.06 Rodney Hood Cle 10 .607 15.9 7.4 .9 .0 .0 2.0 1.06
.03 Tristan Thompson Cle 26 .488 7.9 8.4 .0 .0 .5 1.0 .19
.02 David West GS 7 .625 8.0 8.0 5.4 .0 4.8 4.5 .57
.02 Andre Iguodala GS 7 .800 14.5 3.3 1.8 1.5 1.6 .0 .39
.00 Kevon Looney GS 12 .571 6.9 5.0 1.1 .9 .0 .0 .01
-.01 J.R. Smith Cle 34 .406 7.0 4.1 1.3 1.8 1.2 .0 -.04
-.01 Jordan Clarkson Cle 9 .231 3.6 5.0 1.1 2.4 2.6 1.2 -.28
-.02 George Hill Cle 31 .519 9.2 2.5 2.8 1.2 2.2 .4 -.08
-.04 Jeff Green Cle 25 .381 4.9 2.3 2.8 .5 1.0 .0 -.29
-.05 Kyle Korver Cle 15 .182 1.2 4.5 1.3 .0 .8 .7 -.60
-.06 Nick Young GS 10 .111 .6 1.1 .0 .0 .0 .0 -.99
shooting:
GS .627 - .509 Cle
rebounds/48: Cle 45.7 - 37.4 GS
turnovers: GS 9.7 - 11.3 Cle
Mike G
Posts: 6154 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Sat Jun 09, 2018 9:46 am
Warriors 4 - 0 Cavs
avg score 116.0 - 101.0
Pythagorean wins 3.45 - .55, eWins 2.73 - 1.27
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e493
.94 Kevin Durant GS 41 .642 28.7 10.0 8.0 .7 2.3 2.0 2.82
.72 LeBron James Cle 45 .607 27.4 7.3 6.3 1.0 4.4 .8 1.98
.68 Stephen Curry GS 41 .556 25.3 5.7 7.9 1.4 2.8 .7 2.06
.42 Kevin Love Cle 33 .528 18.4 13.0 1.6 1.1 1.5 .3 1.55
.38 Draymond Green GS 42 .587 8.6 5.5 9.3 1.8 1.3 1.3 1.13
.18 JaVale McGee GS 14 .780 25.1 6.0 .0 .0 .7 3.2 1.58
.17 Shaun Livingston GS 16 .882 20.2 5.7 3.6 .5 .6 .0 1.27
.16 Klay Thompson GS 37 .610 16.6 3.9 1.2 .5 1.4 .2 .53
.14 Larry Nance Cle 17 .479 9.1 13.9 2.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.02
.13 Jordan Bell GS 14 .676 15.2 7.9 2.8 .6 .0 1.2 1.22
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e493
.09 Rodney Hood Cle 14 .474 12.3 8.7 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.1 .81
.07 Andre Iguodala GS 11 .731 16.9 3.1 .9 2.3 .9 1.5 .82
.06 Tristan Thompson Cle 24 .509 8.8 8.6 .0 .0 .4 1.2 .33
.03 David West GS 7 .700 9.0 5.6 5.2 .0 3.7 3.2 .45
.01 Kevon Looney GS 10 .556 8.2 5.2 1.0 .8 .0 .0 .11
.01 J.R. Smith Cle 32 .437 8.3 3.9 1.2 1.4 .9 .0 .02
-.01 Jordan Clarkson Cle 7 .231 3.7 5.1 1.1 2.4 2.6 1.2 -.23
-.05 George Hill Cle 29 .441 7.4 3.0 2.5 .9 2.0 .3 -.23
-.06 Jeff Green Cle 24 .362 4.9 1.8 2.4 .3 .7 .3 -.31
-.07 Nick Young GS 10 .192 1.9 1.7 .0 .0 .0 .0 -.84
-.09 Kyle Korver Cle 16 .162 1.2 3.6 1.3 .0 1.1 .5 -.71
shooting:
GS .615 - .489 Cle
rebounds/48: Cle 45.3 - 39.0 GS
turnovers: GS 10.25 - 12.0 Cle