Player Box Score Projections

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RyanRiot
Posts: 23
Joined: Wed Oct 19, 2016 2:26 am

Player Box Score Projections

Post by RyanRiot » Mon Oct 08, 2018 5:23 pm

Hey everyone, I know we have the team win projection contest, and a lot of what goes into that is player value projections, but I was wondering what sources of player box score stats are publicly available. So far, I've found four:
Does anyone know of any others?

Crow
Posts: 6188
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Player Box Score Projections

Post by Crow » Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:34 pm

Jacob Goldstein released PIPM projections earlier in summer, if I recall correctly. Might have an update later. See his twitter / check his archive site.

Andrew Johnson has a PIPM / RPM blend at his twitter CountingBaskets and Nylon Calculus.

Another set at SteadyLosing twitter, I think.

RyanRiot
Posts: 23
Joined: Wed Oct 19, 2016 2:26 am

Re: Player Box Score Projections

Post by RyanRiot » Tue Oct 09, 2018 1:29 am

Crow wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:34 pm
Jacob Goldstein released PIPM projections earlier in summer, if I recall correctly. Might have an update later. See his twitter / check his archive site.

Andrew Johnson has a PIPM / RPM blend at his twitter CountingBaskets and Nylon Calculus.

Another set at SteadyLosing twitter, I think.
Thanks for the response, but I was referring to projections for box score stats like points, assists, rebounds, etc.

walker_harris3
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Joined: Mon Aug 13, 2018 10:07 pm

Re: Player Box Score Projections

Post by walker_harris3 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 3:03 am

Basketball Reference just put out 2018-19 per-36 minute box score projections. Don't think there's a bank for them though.

nbacouchside
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Re: Player Box Score Projections

Post by nbacouchside » Tue Oct 09, 2018 4:53 pm

walker_harris3 wrote:
Tue Oct 09, 2018 3:03 am
Basketball Reference just put out 2018-19 per-36 minute box score projections. Don't think there's a bank for them though.
Basketball-Reference does per-36 numbers for ever year, going back a ways, using a modified version of the old Marcel the Monkey baseball statline projections. It's described here: https://www.basketball-reference.com/ab ... tions.html

You can find projections from every season going back to 1980-1981 here: https://www.basketball-reference.com/fr ... ctions.cgi

They haven't been posted yet for the 2018-19 season yet, (at least that I could find) but if you're impatient the instructions in the first link can be followed to produce the results on your own.


RyanRiot
Posts: 23
Joined: Wed Oct 19, 2016 2:26 am

Re: Player Box Score Projections

Post by RyanRiot » Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:32 pm

They finally released their 2018-2019 projections, so I put them together with Pelton's minutes projections:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... eg/pubhtml

danoff
Posts: 5
Joined: Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:01 am

Re: Player Box Score Projections

Post by danoff » Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:16 pm

I wish I had seen this thread earlier! Could've used more of these for article I wrote evaluating Kyle Anderson as a player and his new contract as well as doing my own forecast of his 2018-19 +/-.

Would love your thoughts =]

Tweet
https://twitter.com/Danoff/status/1052178878377193478

Direct Link
http://danoff.org/Charlie-Danoff-Kyle-A ... recast.pdf

Crow
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Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Player Box Score Projections

Post by Crow » Sun Feb 24, 2019 1:00 am

Kyle Anderson was a tough call because he was in between good and not so much.

The 538 value estimate seemed way high to me and it was at least for this season. I'd have to review how they do their projections but it was probably too simplistic a blending of past few years and maybe too heavy use of RPM.

The preponderance of 3pt data was that he was below average from there and that really was the case so far this season and he plummeted from free throw as well. And yet he is still strong at rim, has advanced his game from 3-10 and 16-23 ft to elite levels. When the numbers don't make simple sense, intense video work is called for.

He is the defense he was. Not better, but very good. The falloff is all on offense. He isn't getting to line as much. I'd want to detail like catch n shoot vs. off dribble, degree of contest, etc. I am not going to look that up at moment but maybe you can. I'd also want to see monthly splits, vs. good / bad teams, by position, by type of defender, etc.

He might still prove to be a good value. Getting playing time creates value. Maybe the injury is a big part of this. I haven't followed his story. Griz coach probably sucks. Front office may not be helping much.

Parsons' failure was much more catastrophic but maybe they don't know how to evaluate, manage wings. Maybe the system catered too much to Conley and Gasol. Lots of questions that could be explored. Tiny usage. Appropriate or a big part of the problem? I dunno. Worth checking his big usage game history.

Is speed or speed of play an issue? Much noted at draft but what is the evaluation of his pro time, especially for Griz?

How differently has he played for Griz vs. Spurs? When on shot clock is he shooting? Play with less quality shooters with gravity? Is he getting passes in wrong spits or making bad decisions? Is he trying to be a different player? Was he asked to be?

Most of his biggest minute lineups were positive, even very good to great. His pair data sucks with the bench. Coaching management of lineups is always a key factor. He could be doing better if the lineup data was getting paid attention to better.

I see little reason to expect this coach and front office to fix his issues. I'd change both. Probably deeply and fully. I'd be open to moving Anderson but I'd probably want to see him under different instruction first. He worked pretty well in San Antonio. He is still young. They've got plenty of time to experiment before they are relevant again. Years.

danoff
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Joined: Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:01 am

Re: Player Box Score Projections

Post by danoff » Fri Mar 08, 2019 6:27 am

Thanks for the through reading and feedback, Crow!! I responded to multiple points of yours below. :)
Crow wrote:
Sun Feb 24, 2019 1:00 am
The 538 value estimate seemed way high to me and it was at least for this season. I'd have to review how they do their projections but it was probably too simplistic a blending of past few years and maybe too heavy use of RPM.
I agree the $30,00,000 was quite high! Could definitely be because of too simplistic of a model.
Crow wrote:
Sun Feb 24, 2019 1:00 am
The preponderance of 3pt data was that he was below average from there and that really was the case so far this season and he plummeted from free throw as well. And yet he is still strong at rim, has advanced his game from 3-10 and 16-23 ft to elite levels. When the numbers don't make simple sense, intense video work is called for.
Well put about using video to investigate numbers that do not make sense, I'll need to include that for my next post about Mr. Anderson. Do you have any tips on finding NBA player video beyond YouTube and Twitter?
Crow wrote:
Sun Feb 24, 2019 1:00 am
I'd want to detail like catch n shoot vs. off dribble, degree of contest, etc. I am not going to look that up at moment but maybe you can.
Per NBA.com (as of 3/7/19)
  • Catch and Shoot = 54.5 for 2P% and 26.7 for 3s
  • 0 Dribbles = 64.0 2P%, 1 Dribble = 50 2P% (very few 3s off the dribble), 3-6 Dribbles = 59.2% 2P%
  • 0-2 Feet - Very Tight 53.2 2P%, 2-4 Feet - Tight 56.8 2P% 0.0 3P%. 4-6 Feet - Open 61.5 2P% 16.7 3P%, 6+ Feet - Wide Open 72.2 2P%, 43.8 3P%
I find it odd that he's better at 2 pointers off the 3 - 6 dribbles than he is with catch and shoot? His 3P% is bad unless he is wide open (even then may be bad compared to most players shooting wide open 3s).
Crow wrote:
Sun Feb 24, 2019 1:00 am
I'd also want to see monthly splits, vs. good / bad teams, by position, by type of defender, etc.

Worth checking his big usage game history.

Is speed or speed of play an issue? Much noted at draft but what is the evaluation of his pro time, especially for Griz?

How differently has he played for Griz vs. Spurs? When on shot clock is he shooting? Play with less quality shooters with gravity? Is he getting passes in wrong spits or making bad decisions? Is he trying to be a different player? Was he asked to be?
On the list for next Anderson post!
Crow wrote:
Sun Feb 24, 2019 1:00 am
Most of his biggest minute lineups were positive, even very good to great. His pair data sucks with the bench. Coaching management of lineups is always a key factor. He could be doing better if the lineup data was getting paid attention to better.
His pair data is rough with the bench, you're right. I think it's odd he was also slightly negative with Gasol and that Jackson was his best running mate (looking at net points). Grizzlies still have work to do, but these two at forward are in midst of nice season as running mates.

Code: Select all

                                            
                                         Net
Rk                  Lineup  Tm      MP   PTS
1    K. AndersonJ. Jackson MEM  740:36  +3.1
2     K. AndersonG. Temple MEM  942:21  +2.0
3     K. AndersonM. Conley MEM  950:29  +1.7
4      K. AndersonM. Gasol MEM 1070:10  -0.1
5     K. AndersonO. Casspi MEM   64:25  -2.8
6       K. AndersonS. Mack MEM  447:36  -8.8
7     K. AndersonW. Selden MEM  144:13 -10.7
8     K. AndersonM. Brooks MEM  119:45 -16.3
9      K. AndersonJ. Green MEM  302:13 -18.1
10    K. AndersonD. Brooks MEM  120:31 -21.0
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 3/8/2019.
Crow wrote:
Sun Feb 24, 2019 1:00 am
I see little reason to expect this coach and front office to fix his issues. I'd change both. Probably deeply and fully. I'd be open to moving Anderson but I'd probably want to see him under different instruction first. He worked pretty well in San Antonio. He is still young. They've got plenty of time to experiment before they are relevant again. Years.
Grizzlies are certainly still finding their way in transition from Grit 'n' Grind iteration to another identity. Injuries have destroyed them. It's not going to help that they may lose their pick to Boston (probably better just to lost it now, though than #1 pick in coming years). Will be interesting to see how their experiments with Mr. Anderson evolve over time!

Crow
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Re: Player Box Score Projections

Post by Crow » Fri Mar 08, 2019 4:30 pm

I dunno for sure how easy to access lots of player video is from NBA.com for non Stars but I'd check there too.

Would probably take own manipulation from play by play but ideally one might want / try to look at combinations of shot type by dribbles, distance and degree of contest. Lots of dribbles might lead to closer / favorite spots or just "rhythm". Lots of dribbles might indicate confidence / hot hand or weak opponent defender being attacked.

danoff
Posts: 5
Joined: Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:01 am

Re: Player Box Score Projections

Post by danoff » Fri Mar 15, 2019 3:23 am

Crow wrote:
Fri Mar 08, 2019 4:30 pm
I dunno for sure how easy to access lots of player video is from NBA.com for non Stars but I'd check there too.

Would probably take own manipulation from play by play but ideally one might want / try to look at combinations of shot type by dribbles, distance and degree of contest. Lots of dribbles might lead to closer / favorite spots or just "rhythm". Lots of dribbles might indicate confidence / hot hand or weak opponent defender being attacked.
OK, thanks Crow!! I'll look into that as I prepare my next Anderson analysis!

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